Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Topics

• Early warning in the context of risk management.
• Current status of Early Warning in Latin America
  and the Caribbean.
• Trends in Early Warning, EWCII and Mitch 5
  Initiatives.
• Challenges in Early Warning.
• Conclusions.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Basic thoughts concerning risk
Casita Volcano Landslide, 1998, courtesy INETER
If we conceive risk as a process, then the result
of this process is what we call a
disaster. Disasters seem to attack the poorest.
Developed nations have resources which have been
employed to promote measures which inhibit the
generation of risks (for example enforcement of
building codes and zoning laws).
Contrast the 2001 Washington state earthquake
versus de 1976 Guatemalan or the 1972 Nicaragua
or the 1985 Mexican earthquakes. Contrast Mt St.
Helens eruption and the eruption of Nevado del
Ruiz in Colombia and the Armero catastrophe.
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Two views concerning risk as an entity and as a
process.
CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF RISK
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Conceptual framework concerning risk management.
Early Warning Systems (EWS) are examples of
measures related to preparedness, and complement
other measures such a the implementation of
emergency committees, emergency planning, posting
evacuation routes, simulations, and exercises.
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Monitoring of precursors to natural events.
Conceptual framework concerning Early Warning.
NO
Forecasting Will there be an event?
Early Warning Systems (EWS) operate on a very
simple operational framework. Precursors to
events are monitored on a continuous basis. Data
is analyzed to generate a forecast. If there is a
forecast of a large event, a warning is issued.
In the modern framework of EW the emergency
committees will begin actions as proposed in the
emergency plans.
YES
Issue a Warning or an Alert.
Initiate actions according to emergency plans
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Early Warning as a strategy for the transition
from Disaster Response to Risk Management.
National Emergency Councils
Before Mitch, Central America had typically
national-level institutions devoted to disaster
response, called National Emergency Councils.
Early Warning
In several cases, Mitch became a catalyst to
transform these from military to non-military
institutions, and the concept of risk management
was embedded in their new mandates (prevention,
mitigation preparedness, as well as response).
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Community-operated Early Warning Systems (C-EWS)
in Central America are based on three
pillars. Civil Society plays a role in monitoring
phenomena (rainfall, river level) and reporting
to a central station. Using standard procedures,
the central station can issue a
forecast. National level institutions devoted to
disaster preparedness provide instrumentation,
training and technical sustainability to the
system. Tech. institutions provide tools and
methods to operate the EWS.
C EWSs
Early Warning System
Institutions
Civil Society
Instrumentation
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin
America Caribbean

• All countries in the Caribbean and Central
  America operate national-level EWS for
  hurricanes, based on information provided by US
  institutions such as NOAA and NHC WMO, and
  national weather stations.
• Several countries operate sophisticated EWS for
  floods using telemetric equipment.
• Several countries operate basic EWS for floods
  using simple rain-gauges and river level gauges.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin
America Caribbean

• Mexico city operates an EWS for earthquakes.
• North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico)
  and Brazil operate EWS for forest fires using
  satellites.
• Some countries operate some kind of EWS for
  tsunamis. This effort is led by US (Hawaii) and
  Chile.
• Several countries are developing EWS for volcanic
  eruptions.
• There are attempts to develop EWS for landslides
  based on intensity of rainfall and geological
  studies.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin
America Caribbean

• US-AID sponsored and provided technical
  assistance to implement telemetric early warning
  systems for several rivers in Honduras,
  Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
• ECHO, GTZ, SIDA and other government
  organizations sponsored the implementation of
  community-operated early warning systems
  throughout Central America, in South America, and
  the Caribbean.
• Colombia, Venezuela, and other South American
  nations operate telemetric EWS for floods.

• Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Montserrat, and
  Nicaragua head efforts in EWSs for volcanoes.
• Cuba, Jamaica, Ned. Antilles, Panama, Dom. Rep,
  Mexico, and several South American countries
  operate weather radars as part of their EWSs for
  floods.
• Regional centers such as CRRH, CIIFEN, and
  CATHALAC, stimulate applied research which
  benefits EW.
• CEPREDENAC, CDERA, and CAPRADE are regional
  institutions promoting EW as part of disaster
  prevention.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Current status of Early Warning Systems in Latin
America Caribbean

• Disasters such as Hurricane Mitch in Central
  America and Georges in the Caribbean are opening
  avenues of communication and understanding among
  scientific /technical and social institutions.
• International projects such as AID-CAMI and
  GTZ-FEMID have made significant contributions to
  this effort of uniting institutions with a common
  goal of disaster reduction via early warning and
  risk management projects.

• Early warning systems have been implemented
  throughout the region, and are now evolving as
  tools of national and local emergency committees
  and Centers for Emergency Operations (EOCs) for
  disaster preparedness.
• Early warning has provided a window of
  opportunity to share a variety of experiences
  regarding risk management and disaster
  preparedness.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Trends in Early Warning EWCII Mitch5
There have been regional and international
events to discuss early warning trends.

• EWC II in Bonn, Germany, October 2003. RCEW in
  Guatemala, June 2003.
• www.ewc2.org
• Mitch 5, Honduras, December 2003.
• www.cepredenac.org
• Regional Symposium on EW, Guatemala, Nov 2001.
• Regional forums in the Caribbean and Central
  America.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America
Caribbean
Typical conclusions from such forums.

• EW is becoming a tool to integrate
  scientific/technical institutions with Disaster
  Preparedness institutions.
• EW is becoming a tool also to integrate local
  citizens as volunteers, as well as local
  organizations to promote disaster preparedness.
• EW projects are focusing on the whole picture of
  disaster preparedness and risk management via the
  inclusion of many actors and the elaboration of
  risk maps and emergency plans.

• EW is offering the expected results regarding
  saving lives and property in some cases.
• EW has been supported greatly via international
  support (technical/scientific institutions, Intnl
  Org. Such as OAS, AID, SIDA, UNDP, ECHO as well
  as by NGOs and national institutions.)
• In some countries, EW has become an activity of
  National Emergency Committees.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America
Caribbean

• There is a need to strengthen EWS capacities at
  the national and local levels.
• Developed nations should continue to support
  research to understand the dynamics of natural
  phenomena as part of their technical assistance
  to developing nations.
• Developed nations should continue to share
  information regarding the status of natural
  phenomena.
• EW must be tied to the new Risk Management
  framework, and given its proper place in it.
• EW must be supported from all levels
  (international, regional, national, and local).

Typical recommendations from such forums.

• There is a need to design and implement regional
  programs which target EW to promote its
  applications and development.
• There is a need to promote exchanges of ideas,
  experiences, lessons learned, and those things we
  should not repeat (mistakes), in order to improve
  EWSs.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Trends in Early Warning Systems in Latin America
Caribbean

• EW is gradually encompassing the onset of
  emergency operations. Its being re-defined to go
  beyond the warning itself.
• Sustainability has to be built-in order for
  systems to operate successfully. For example,
  in rural areas the human-operated radio networks
  are finding uses to solve social problems
  (medical assistance, coordination of activities,
  etc.)
• Recent disasters such as hurricanes Mitch and
  Georges have provided an opportunity to advance
  dramatically in EW concepts and applications.

Lessons Learned from various experiences on EW

• Hi-tech EWS allow for high precision, but in
  Central America Caribbean, cost is still an
  issue.
• Low tech EWS have been successful in involving
  community members and local governments in rural
  communities, specially in the case of small river
  basins. However, tools and instruments have to
  be adapted to their limitations.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
Challenges in Early Warning Systems

• Modeling drought and its impacts in the region.
• Improvements to basic EWSs in areas such as
  hydrologic modeling to
• Create forecast algorithms.
• Create high-resolution hazard maps.
• Introduce the concept of period of return
  associated to the intensity of events to generate
  risk scenarios.
• Systematize successful and unsuccessful
  experiences and distribute them.

• Sustainability of High-Tech systems in developing
  nations. The cost of high precision. How can we
  afford it in developing nations?
• Scientific research to understand the dynamics of
  such regional phenomena as Climate Change and El
  Niño.
• Scientific research to understand the dynamics of
  landslides triggered by rainfall.
• Introduce Benchmarking and indicators to catalog
  EWSs.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Challenges in Early Warning Systems

• Climate Change
• Understanding its impacts in the various regions
  of the world.
• Evaluating and interpreting local variations in
  climate (delay in the onset of rainfall,
  extension of periods without rainfall).
• Understanding the role of regional deforestation
  in local climate changes.
• Understanding and modeling its effects in other
  sectors such as agriculture, cattle farming,
  energy, and urban growth.

Challenges lying ahead in meteorological
applications

• El Niño
• Understanding its impacts in the various regions
  of the world.
• Understanding and modeling its effects in other
  sectors such as agriculture, cattle farming,
  energy, and urban growth.

• Drought
• Understanding its impacts in the various regions
  of the world.
• Understanding and modeling its effects in other
  sectors.

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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
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Challenges in Early Warning Systems
The how to do it, some thoughts

• REGIONAL PLATFORMS ON EARLY WARNING
• Gather and systematize experiences from around
  the world to generate, print, and distribute
  documentation in various languages.
• Serve as a means to link those who are facing
  problems with those who have already solved them.
• Promote a forum for discussion and sharing of
  experiences in EW.
• Elaborate and distribute guidelines, manuals, and
  blueprints to implement or upgrade EWSs.

REGIONAL PROJECTS Promote and carry out regional
projects which focus on critical issues such as
climate change or landslides, where scientists
from various countries develop, systematize, and
implement techniques to monitor precursors,
analyze data, and elaborate algorithms and
procedures to establish and operate early warning
systems.
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Early Warning Systems A Tool for Mitigation and
Coordination
CONCLUSIONS

• We need to find mechanisms to tie risk
  management, including EW into the political arena
  and as part of the sustainable development.

Early Warning is healthy and alive,

• But disasters continue to disrupt development in
  poorer countries.
• We must find how best to integrate resources to
  promote a better understanding of natural
  phenomena which are affecting us.
• We need to take advantage of the new information
  technology to enhance the exchange of experiences
  and to disseminate knowledge gathered via
  research.

Thanks for your attention.