TSF Corporate Overview

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Security and Risk Management in the Middle East
In Presentation to
Middle East Business Forum
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The Steele Foundation Overview
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MANAGING RISKS TODAY IS MORE COMPLEX THAN EVER
BEFORE. The Steele Foundations enterprise
model enables you to focus on your core business
while we focus on ours managing your
risks. With offices on five continents, Steele
eliminates your need to manage multiple risk
management vendors we partner with your
organization to provide the most professional
deliverables in the industry, backed by
unparalleled response times and global resources.
Over 400 corporate customers rely on Steele to
protect their companys interests 24/7
proactive and comprehensive, our service
eliminates business risks that affect your bottom
line before they happen.
We enable business by protecting people,
property and profit
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Look for Comprehensive Support
Market Analysis Competitive Intelligence Due
Diligence Counterfeiting Mergers
Acquisitions Employee Misconduct Fraud
Theft Product Diversion Trademark Infringement
Executive / Dignitary Protection Workplace
Violence Protection Estate Security Corporate
Security Labor Dispute Management Environmental
Terrorism High Threat Security Force Special
Events
Security Risk Management Training
Programs Executive Dignitary Protection
Training Protective Driving Motorcade
Operations Advanced Protective Firearms
Training High Risk Environment (HRE)
Training Surveillance Counter
surveillance General Safety Security
Training Pre-Incident / Crisis Management
Training Self Applied Protective
Measures Security Awareness Mobile Training Teams
(MTT)
Threat Management Profiling Forensic
Analysis Training Aberrant Communication
Gap Analysis Kidnap Ransom Programs Business
Recovery and Continuity Workplace Violence
Preparedness Functional Company
Assessment Personal Security Vulnerability
Assessment (PSVA) Executive Security Program
Design Counter-Terrorism Programs Facility
Assessments Business Practice Risk
Analysis Management Consulting
Vulnerability Testing Cybercrime Policy
Creation Implementation Architecture
Design Forensic Training Managed Services
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Develop Multiple Bases of Support
The largest geographic footprint in the
region ?????? Riyadh Saudi Arabia Corporate
headquarters for Middle East region ??????
Kuwait City Kuwait ???? Amman Jordan ?????
Baghdad Iraq Corporate Offices San
Francisco USA, Los Angeles USA, New York USA,
London England, New Delhi India, Hong Kong
China, Mexico City Mexico Branch Offices
Boston, Denver, Washington D.C., Chicago, St.
Louis, Seattle, Minneapolis, Sao Paulo,
Vancouver, and Manila
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Why is the region Important
The Middle East Region is the most strategically
important region of the globe for the indefinite
future

• Geographically - The ME region lies between east
  and west and is an intersection between Asia,
  Africa and Europe
• Culturally The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is home
  to Islam and it will remain the centre of the
  Islamic world
• Economically The ME contains two-thirds of the
  worlds proven reserves of oil. In 2000, the ME
  supplied 21.7 mb/d representing 28 of world
  total demand which represent 47 of the total
  world oil import and - This importance will
  increase The ME will produce 35 mb/d of oil in
  2020, representing 33 of world total demand. Due
  to its production capacity, the ME will remain
  the stabilizing force in the world oil market
• Politically and Strategically Past tensions in
  the ME have had an impact worldwide and have led
  to the deep involvement of foreign forces in the
  region. It will remain important - the impact of
  the ME will increase due to the fact that the
  region is in the midst of accelerating and
  transformational change. This outcome of the
  shift remains to be determined but the strains on
  the present system will increase.
• The importance of the ME will likely further
  increase both in terms of the campaign against
  international terrorism and the war in Iraq. The
  US role will remain central

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Understanding the Middle East

• Cultural Aspects
• Economic Aspects
• Labor Market Pressures (5,3 million job seekers
  by 2010 between age18-35 male and female)
• Political Environment
• Israel

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Cultural Aspects Extreme Factors

• Strong family relationship and responsibility
• Strong feelings with the past
• Living by the Letter of the Book
• Tribal

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Regional Security A Historical Perspective

• Neither of the approaches attempted in the past
  have brought about a more stable security
  environment. Regional powers undeterable.
• Current Regional Security is constructed on a
  military paradigm based on mutual antagonism,
  iron-fist strategy.
• Regional Security therefore as a term is a
  misnomer. There is no common understanding of
  what a security framework for the region should
  look like.

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Current Regional Security Situation

• Major US Presence/US Unilateralism
• Presence of large land and Sea forces
  distribution of military bases throughout region,
  military shift towards smaller GCC states and
  away from Saudi Arabia
• Political Reform Program under Greater Middle
  East Partnership Initiative
• Many Arabs stand ready to fight Israel and thus
  the USA as supporter of Israel
• Rising and unprecedented anti-Americanism and
  anti-Western sentiments dangerous mix
• Protests and inciting dialogue in mosques and
  schools
• Mentality being a martyr is more and more
  accepted
• Iraq instability is affecting the entire region
• Increased Radicalism with diffuse violence
  spreading The case of Saudi Arabia (war against
  terrorism fatalities, Security Forces 39,
  Nationals 18, Expatriates 55, Injuries439)
  (May 2003-August 2004)

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US/UK Forces in the Region
Source Global Security September 2004
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Current Regional Security Situation (Contd)

• Iran Under Increasing Pressure
• Domestically Population over 70 million
• - almost 60 below age of 24
• - tremendous pressure on the existing system
• Strategically Iranian nuclear program
• threat of ? US/Israeli military action
• ? IAEA to refer case to UN Security Council

Iraq Deteriorating Security Civil War cannot
be excluded US Casualties 1,039 (Sept. 24,
2004) Iraqi Casualties more than 15,000
(conservative estimate)Kidnappings more than
150 since May 03 Strength of Resistance 5,000
(Nov. 2003) (e) 20,000 (Sept. 2004)
(e) Political Uncertainty Elections
Acceptance, Rejection, Modification
Sources News Agencies Brookings Institution,
Iraq Index updated September 30, 2004.
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Scenarios for the Future
Scenario 1 Chaos in Iraq Situation continues
to deteriorate, US withdraws, civil war erupts
following flawed elections, violence begins to
spread throughout the region. Revolution and
civil war are possibilities in several regional
countries which could create a domino effect in
the Middle East Scenario 2 US-Iran
ConfrontationIranian US miscalculations lead
to widening conflict US/Israeli intervention
results in Iranian retaliatory responses.Scenari
o 3 Maintenance of the Status Quo Iraq violence
continues with little progress either way, Iran
confrontation confined to diplomatic front.
System remains inherently unstable with the
possibility of a break-out conflict any time
Scenario 4 Unpredicted radical change in one
of the GCC member states. e.g. radical Islamist
group control power (Saudi)Scenario 5 US
military action to control oil fields to
influence supply and prices and in turn economic
stability/status/quo
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Risk vs. Reward

• Large number of Opportunities
• Significant opportunities for economic growth
  and profit
• Be informed, Be prepared
• Align with regional culture for long term
  success

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Contact Information Speaker Kenn Kurtz Chief
Executive Officer Geoffrey Mann Senior
Manager 1 212.561.5190 gmann_at_wwsteele.com