Demographic Trends In Utah Affecting Public Policy Decision-Makers

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Demographic Trends In Utah Affecting Public
Policy Decision-Makers

• Utah League of Cities and Towns
• April 10, 2008

Michael E. Christensen, Ph.D. Director
Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
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Utahs Population andDemographic Trends
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State of Utah Total Population 1900 to 2007 and
Projected 2010
AAPC 1970-2007 Utah 2.5 U.S. 1.0
2,927,643
2,699,554
2,233,169
1,722,850
1,461,037
1,059,273
890,627
688,862
550,310
507,847
449,396
373,351
276,749
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Utahs Population Increase by Decade 1960 - 2020
Projected
Projected
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County Population Utah, 2007
75 of Utahs population lives In four counties
82 live in Wasatch Front counties
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Percent Change in County Population 1990 to 2007
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Change in County Population 1990 to 2007
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Change in County Population 1990-2007
More than 100,000 25,000 to 99,999 10,000 to
24,999 5,000 to 9,999 1,000 to 4,999 500 to 999 1
to 499 0 to -900
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Percent Change in County Population 2000 to 2007
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Utahs Fastest Growing Cities 2000 to 2006
Number Increase
17,472
16,517
14,968
14,299
12,316
2006 Population St. George 67,614 Lehi..
36,021 West Jordan......94,309 South
Jordan.44,009 Herriman..14,643 Draper..
36,873 West Valley...119,841 Riverton..35,54
3 Syracuse..19,534 Eagle Mountain..12,232
11,355
10,641
10,301
9,628
9,407
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Utahs Fastest Growing Cities 2000 to 2006
Percent Increase
640
529
333
160
2006 Population Saratoga Springs7,283 Herriman
....14,643 Eagle Mountain.12,232 Cedar
Hills....8,410 Syracuse....19,534 Lehi
..36,021
97
85
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Utah Components of Population Change 1950 to 2007
Total Population Increase Net
Migration Natural Increase
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Key Points

• Utahs population is one of the fastest growing
  in the nation.
• Utahs population is projected to increase by
  approximately
• 587,000 this decade.
• 653,000 next decade.
• 90 of this population growth is occurring along
  the Wasatch Front and in Washington and Cache
  counties.

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Utahs Increasing MinorityPopulation
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Minority Population Utah and the U.S. 1850 to
2000, Projected to 2010
Projected
Utah US
Projected
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Foreign-Born Population Utah In-migration By
Region
Europe Asia Africa Oceania Latin
America North America
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County Population by Race and Hispanic Origin
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Hispanic Population Growth 1990s
Just less than one-fourth of the half million
increase in the Utah population in the 1990s was
Hispanic.
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Hispanic Population Growth Since 2000
Hispanics represent over a third of new Utah
residents since 2000.
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Key Points

• Utahs population is becoming significantly more
  diverse
• In 1990s, Hispanics accounted for 23 of Utahs
  population increase.
• Since 2000, Hispanics have accounted for 33 of
  Utahs population increase.

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School PopulationGrowth
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Utah Public School Enrollment 1976 to 2007
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Utah Public School Enrollment Annual Percent
Change 1976 to 2007
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Projected Growth of School Age Population 2000
to 2030
School Age Population (Y1) Growth Rate (Y2)
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Number of School Age Children Per 100 Working Age
Adults Actual and Projected Utah, 1980 to 2030
Actual Projected
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Minority Population Public School Enrollment
Public School Enrollment growth from 2000 to
2007 Total 62,384 Minority 40,320
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Share of Population 25 Years Older With
At Least High School Completion By Minority
Status Utah, 2000
91
91
84
86
84
83
82
78
59
55
Male
Female
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Key Points

• Public school enrollments are going to increase
  rapidly for the next several years.
• School-age dependency ratio increases slightly.
• Hispanic population of public schools is
  increasing rapidly.
• Hispanic educational attainment levels pose a
  challenge to the state.

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Population Projections
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Projected Percentage Change in Population By
County 2010 to 2030
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Projected Change in Population By County 2010 to
2030
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Utahs Aging Population
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Number Change in Population for Selected Age
Groups 2010 to 2030
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Percentage Change in Population by Selected Age
Groups 2010 to 2030
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Utah Population by Age Group as a Percent Of
Total 2010 vs. 2030
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Utah Dependency Ratios Population per 100
Working Age
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Actual and Projected Nonagricultural
Payroll Employment Growth Utah and the United
States 1950 to 2040
Utah United States
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Key Points

• Utahs population growth and its increasing
  diversity raise two major challenges
• Providing a quality education for all of Utahs
  residents and
• Providing the infrastructure to allow Utahns to
  move around.

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Key Points

• Utahs future is bright if
• We properly educate our fast growing workforce,
  especially our increasing minority population
  and
• We provide the infrastructure to allow our people
  and businesses to move around rapidly.