The Perfect Storm

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The Perfect Storm Oklahomas population no
signs of growth
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa .
2008
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Eight sources of the Perfect StormLack of mass
employment with living wage for
unskilled/low-skilled persons, and growing
income insecuritiesGrowing workforce shortage
Rapid aging of the population Growing
challenges to healthy lifestyles and access to
quality health care Continued growing
immigration Changing environmental
conditionsand water insecuritiesUncertainty of
future energy supplyGrowing challenges to
American culture and identity
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Key dimensions of change
Demographics Technology Globalization Culture and
values
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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• Oklahomas Population
• No Signs of Growth

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Definitions
Demographic growth Increase in the size of
population by there being more births than death,
and more migrants entering than leaving
Natural balance Fundamental growth when there
are more births than deaths Size of the
population increases when there are more births
than deaths and more migrants arriving than
departing (migratory balance) Replacement value
Number of children per family just sufficient to
keep the total population constant or 2.1
children per woman
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Worldwidepopulation growth By 2050 there will
be 9 billion people on earth 3 billion will have
been added just in the last 46 years Fastest
growth is in underdeveloped countries Ethnic and
religious diversity will be more important than
race U.S. population centers will be coastal
Taking a closer look
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Population growth What about Oklahoma?
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahoma is essentially not growing Annual
average growth rate between 2000-2006 was
0.6 Without the Hispanic population that would
be reduced to 0.3 Average natural growth rate,
birth rate minus death rate, was 0.4
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Population declines in Oklahoma are
widespread Between 1940-2000, 45 counties lost
population for a total of 311,363 people Between
2000-2006, 34 counties lost population The
largest losses were in Cimarron (10.8), Grant
(9.3), and Tillman (8.4) Counties
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Between 2000-2006, 9 more counties would have
lost population except for the increases in the
Hispanic populationTulsa County was one Tulsas
loss would have been 0.7 without the Hispanic
population which made it a 0.4 gain Among the 43
counties that increased, 18 increased less than
4 or about 0.6 annually In 2006, 40 counties
had a population less than 25,000 the size of
the city of Owasso
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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62 of Oklahomas 77 counties either lost
population or grew at a rate less than the state
between 1950 and 2005 All but 4 counties had
less than 25,000 population in 2005
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahomas Population Shifts
Only 15 counties grew at or above the states
growth of 59 All but 6 counties were over
50,000 population in 2005
US Total

• Metro Cos.
• Cleveland
• Rogers
• Canadian
• Wagoner

NE Oklahoma - Delaware - Cherokee
OK Total
Sequoyah Co. (NE)

• Mayes (NE)
• Marshall (SCrtl)

Metro Cos. - Tulsa - Oklahoma

• Metro Cos.
• - McClain
• Comanche

Metro Cos. - Logan - Creek
OK 59
Source U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Any growth mainly occurred in Metro Areas The
Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs share of the states
growth between 2000-2006 was 89 Oklahomas
population grew 3.6 the OKC/Tulsa MSAs grew
5.7 Non-urban areas grew 1.4
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahoma MSAs and Non MSA Population
Changes2000-2006
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahoma County Tulsa County Population
Changes2000-2006
Both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties have been
significantly affected by the Hispanic
population Without Hispanic population growth,
Tulsa County would have had a decline in
population
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Growth related to natural balance Oklahomas
natural growth rate has been variable but low 30
counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births per
year Of these, 15 counties had less than 100
births per year
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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In Tulsa, and in Oklahoma, natural population
growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates
of Hispanic women
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Growth related to natural balance
Natural growth is strongly impacted by fertility
rates of Hispanic women
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Growth related to migration/
immigration Increase in the Hispanic population,
including immigrants, is the most critical
contributor to population growth in small
states Oklahomas Hispanic population grew by
over 66,000 between 2000-2006 or 37, an average
annual growth of 5.4 The same population grew
another 5.5 between 2006-2007 or by almost
14,000 people
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Growth related to migration/ immigration The
non-Hispanic population grew 58,000 or 1.8
between 2000-2006 or less than 0.3 annually The
White non-Hispanic population grew by only 19,197
or 0.78, about 0.1 per year
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahoma County School October 1 Enrollment
2000
Change
Change
Race
2006
-14.0
-8,620
52,742
White NH
61,362
3.2
784
Black
25,500
24,716
1,765
31.3
7,404
Native American
5,639
90.0
9,281
Hispanic
10,317
19,598
Tulsa County School October 1 Enrollment
Race
2000
2006
Change
Change
White NH
65,848
58,731
-7,117
-10.8
Black
17,166
17,563
397
2.3
Native American
10,439
13,467
3,028
29.0
Hispanic
6,088
11,817
5,729
94.0
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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• Oklahomas Population
• Age Structure

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Oklahomas total population has grown at just
under 0.6 per year People 65 and over increased
5.1 between 2000 and 2007
Total 0-17 18-64 65 Over 85 Over
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahomas total
population is projected to grow at a slow pace of
10.2 The population of people 65 and over is
projected to increase 60 The working age
population is projected to decline
Total 0-17 18-64 65 Over 85 Over
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Age Structure Total Population Percent
Change US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of
Age 0-85
The age group that is most productive (34-47) is
projected to decline
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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The Perfect Storm

• is available on our website
• www.csctulsa.org

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa -
June 2008
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa