Population Trends in Maryland, 20002006

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Population Trends in Maryland, 2000-2006

• 2007 Spring Planning Directors Meeting
• May 22, 2007

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Population Data Source

• U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates through July
  1, 2006
• Data for states released end of December, 2006
• Data for counties released end of March, 2007

3
U.S. Census Bureau Population Cohort Component
Estimates

• Births deaths from administrative records
• Internal (domestic) migration from federal tax
  returns and Medicare records
• International migration a national estimate is
  distributed to states counties based on Census
  2000 ratios

4
Maryland Population, 2000 2006 (and rank within
U.S.)
(19th)
(19th)
5
Maryland Population Change,2000- 2006

• Total Change 319,221 (14th largest)
• Percent Change 6.0 (21st fastest)
• But below the overall U.S. rate of 6.4

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Annual Average Growth Rates for Marylands
Population
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning,
from U.S. Census Bureau Data.
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Annual Population Change for Maryland (and rank
within U.S.)
14th
10th
16th
18th
14th
27th
9
Annual Pct Change in Pop in Maryland, 2000- 2006
(and rank within U.S.)
13th
18th
12th
22nd
27th
36th
10
Net Natural Change (Births Deaths) for Maryland
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Net International Migration and Federal Citizens
Movement for Maryland
12
Net Internal Migration for Maryland, 2000 2006
(40th)
(42nd)
(43rd)
(24th)
(14th)
(11th)
(15th)
And rank of net internal migration among the 50
states and District of Columbia
13
Components of Population Change for Maryland
2000 - 2006
Residual
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates,
December, 2006
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Reasons for Maryland NetInternal Out Migration

• Decreasing relative economic vitality
• Higher housing costs compared to neighboring
  states

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Annual Pct Change in MD WS Jobs and Pct Pt
Difference MD U.S.
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2000 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing
Bordering Counties, MD PA
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2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing
Bordering Counties, MD PA
Median value, plus and minus the margin of error
21
Change in Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing,
2000-2005
Source Census 2000 and the 2005 American
Community Survey
22
2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing Built
Between 2000 and 2004
Median value, plus and minus the margin of error
23
Inmigration to Maryland From PA and Outmigration
from Maryland To PA
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Net Migration for Maryland With Pennsylvania
25
Net Migration for Maryland With Pennsylvania
Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford
Washington
26
Net Migration for Maryland WithWest Virginia
27
Net Migration for Maryland WithDelaware
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Total Population Change for Marylands
Jurisdictions, 2000 - 2006
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Population Change, 2000 - 2006
(-3.0)
(-2.8)
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Components of Population Change for Allegany
County, 2000-2006
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Components of Population Change for Baltimore
City, 2000-2006
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Net Internal Migration for Baltimore City
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Percent Change in Population for Marylands
Jurisdictions, 2000-2006
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Annualized Pop Change for Marylands
Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 2003-2006
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Annualized Pop Change for Marylands
Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 2003-2006
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Population Growth in the Upper Lower Eastern
Shore Regions, as a Pct of Statewide Growth,
1991-2006
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Population Growth in the Eastern Shore Region
Washington County, as a Pct of Statewide Growth,
1991-2006
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Net Migration Outflow from Baltimore County to
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
45
Net Migration Outflow From Carroll County to
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
46
Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County to
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
47
Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County To
Washington Co., 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
48
Net Migration Inflow To Frederick Co. From
Montgomery County, 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
49
Net Migration Inflow To Washington Co from
Montgomery Co, 2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
50
Net Migration Inflow To Cecil Co from Harford Co,
2000 - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
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Population Change, 2000-2006, as a Percent of
1990-2000 Change
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Summary

• Slower overall population growth in Maryland in
  last three years due to increasing net out
  migration
• Increasing out migration linked to decreasing
  relative economic vitality and higher housing
  prices
• Slower growth more apparent in central Maryland

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Summary (cont.)

• Outlying areas with relatively lower housing
  prices have been the recipient of some of the
  displaced growth from central Maryland
• This has led to these outlying areas accounting
  for a greater share of statewide growth and in
  some cases to have surpassed the previous
  decades total growth