Recent Trends in Hurricane Intensity By: Mario Lopez

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Recent Trends in Hurricane IntensityBy Mario
Lopez
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Overview

• Potential Intensity Theory (Emanuel)
• Emanuel (2005)
• Webster, Holland, Curry, and Chang (2005)
• Other Factors to Consider ?

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Potential Intensity Theory

• Maximum possible intensity of a tropical cyclone
  is proportional to temperature difference between
  storm top and SST

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Emanuel (2005)

• Trend in power dissipated in hurricanes over past
  30 years
• Power Dissipation Index

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Data Analysis

• North Atlantic
• Western North Pacific
• 1-2-1 Smoother

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North Atlantic
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Western North Pacific
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N. Atlantic W.N. Pacific
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Webster et. Al (2005)

• Number of tropical cyclones
• Tropical cyclone days
• Intensity of tropical cyclones

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SST Trend
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Intensity Trend
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Other Factors to Consider

• Natural variability of hurricane activity
• Changes in observations and measurements?
• How will inhibiting factors change in a warmer
  climate?

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What I Think

• Higher probability of intense hurricanes in a
  warmer climate

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The End