Constructive Simulations

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Constructive Simulations for Joint
Experimentation of Complex Operations
19 April 2004 Simulation Interoperability
Standards Organization
Rick Kass Chief, Analysis Division Joint
Experimentation, J9 USJFCOM
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Purpose Show how the integration of
agent-based simulation and JWARS permits
experimentation on complex interactions.

• Agenda
• Constructive simulation and Wargame
  experimentation
• Model-Wargame-Model (UV-04)
• Integrate all elements of national power
• DIME diplomatic, information, military, and
  economic
• Synthetic Environments for Analysis and
  Simulation (SEAS)
• --agent based simulation of complex
  social-political environments
• --SIMULEX, Dr. Alok Chaturvedi, Purdue
  University
• Joint Warfare System (JWARS)
• --perception-based joint campaign-level operations

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Constructive Simulations and Joint Experimentation

• Why Constructive Simulations?
• Faster than real time
• operational level of war, 10-40 days military
  campaign
• Examine multiple runs and variation
• development of new ways to fight.concept
  development
• sensitivity analysis, understand why results
  occurred

• Why Synthetic Environment for Analysis and
  Simulation (SEAS)?
• Examines effects of non-military actions
• DIME Diplomatic, Information, Military and
  Economic
• Why Joint Warfare System (JWARS)?
• Air, land, sea in one - - joint
• Perception based - - value of information
• Soft factors value of will to fight

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Joint Experiment MethodsDifferential Strengths
to Determine Cause Effect
Requirements for a Good Experiment
Employ Capability
Detect Change in Effect
Isolate Reason for Effect
Relate Results to Operations

Modeling and Simulation Support Required
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Constructive Sims Optimize Design of Wargames
(and increase applicability of results)
Experiment Model-Wargame-Model (M-W-M)
Wargame
Event-Simulation (constructive or HITL)
Model
Model

• Real staff/operators
• Reactive threat
• One trial
• No Alternative Comparison
• No Baseline

Pre-Event Constructive Simulation
Post-Event Constructive Simulation
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Unified Vision 04

• Joint Operation Concepts
• Major Combat Operations
• Joint Forcible Entry Operations
• Deploy, Employ, Sustain

• 7 months of continuous experiments (CY04)
• Begin with establishing 2015 Baseline Case
• End with validation analytic event

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Practice War Game (SWA)
Analytic War Game (Indonesia)
Work Shop
Final Reporting Begins
SIM Scenario Dev BLUE-1/ RED-1
SIM Runs
SIM Runs
Prepare Rehearse Scenario
Validate B1 vs RED-1 and B2 vs RED-2

• Simulations
• JWARS
• SEAS
• JFAST

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Can Attrition-Based Constructive Simulation
Accommodate New Capabilities
Ability to conduct Joint Military Campaigns
integrating all elements of national power (DIME)?

• Current method
• White Cell Subjective Effects Adjudication Cell
  input to legacy models
• Improved method
• Use off-line Simulations to Quantify Non-tangible
  effects as input to JWARS

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USE of SEAS and JWARS in an Analytic Wargame
Experiment
Move 0 (2-3 Years) Road to War Scenario
Move 1 (20-60 days) Setting Conditions Diplomati
c Information Economic

• World Opinion
• Regional Neighbors
• Belligerent Country

• World Opinion
• Regional Neighbors
• Belligerent Country

• World Opinion
• Regional Neighbors
• Belligerent Country

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Potential SEAS Inputs from JIACG Role Players
Information Actions Conduct media campaign,
computer network operations, PSYOP campaign
Diplomatic Actions Issue Demarche, reduce
relations, close embassy, expand relations, seek
international support, submit UNSC resolution,
establish intel liaison, engage NGOs
Economic Actions Threaten sanctions, freeze
assets, embargo, adjust terms of loans, encourage
foreign investments
Civil-Military Actions (Stability
Operations) Security assistance activities,
combined military training exercises, seek host
nation support, provide TMD, conduct maritime
escort operations, de-mining operations, food
distribution, law enforcement operations, manage
dislocated civilians, military construction
Input from JWARS Blue visibly operating in
Region, Blue conducting strikes against
Belligerent forces, Blue casualties, Belligerent
infrastructure damaged, Belligerent casualties
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Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation
(SEAS)
Agent-Based SEAS - System of Systems
JIACG Player Actions
Leadership networks
Social groups
Agents
Models
Diplomatic
Decision Making
Leaders
Information
Information (Media Effect)
Political Social Groups
Population Social Networks
Military
Military
Economic
Economic
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
Results Of Military Campaign (JWARS)
Artificial agents are pieces of software
programmed with behavioral rules for interacting
with each other, the environment, and for
accumulating information that changes interaction
possibilities. 
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Levels of SEAS Agent Modeling(asymmetric
interactions)
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Ideological Factions modeled in SEAS
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Implementing Complex Actions and Complex Effects
in Operational-level Experimentation
JTF (with JIACG) Coordinated Actions
Operational Net Assessment (ONA) Effects Based
Planning Execution
Elements of National Power
Military Diplomatic Information Economic
Actions
Actions
Leaders
Population
Power Grid
Commerce
Nodes
Red Political Agents
Red Social/Religious Agents
Red Information Agents
PMESII Interactions Political, Military Economic,
Social, Information Infrastructure
SEAS (Synthetic Environment for Analysis and
Simulation) Developed at Purdue University
SEAS Agent-Based Model
Blue and Red Allies Agents
Red Population Agents

• JTF Military Campaign (JWARS)
• Red military entities will to fight
• Morale, cohesion, Break-points
• Red leaders willingness to escalate or deescalate

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SEAS Inputs/Outputs

• Neighbors (will Provide/Allow) for each of 7
  neighbors
• Forces None, Promised, Combat Support Forces,
  Combat Troops
• Money None, Token amount , Large amount
• Basing Rights No, Possible/reconsidering, Yes
• Over Flights No, Possible/reconsidering, Yes
• Terrorist Actions None, Some/ok, Extensive
  requiring more Blue sec. forces

Potential JIACG Role-Player Actions (Diplomatic,
Information, Civil-Military, Economic)
Will to Fight (Input to JWARS Military
Campaign) 1. Red Tactical Morale and Cohesion
of military forces 0-10

(0 total loss of moral/ willing to
surrender, 10fight to death) 2. Red
Operational No retaliation, Verbal Warning of
retaliation, Employ terrorists, Employ
Conventional weapon strikes, Employ WME
strikes 3. Red Strategic Capitulate to US/UN
Demands, De-escalate and seek diplomatic
compromise, Escalate and remain steadfast to the
end
174 Parent Action-Node combinations linked to 1)
13 Effects 2) 18 SEAS OUTPUTS

• Stability Operations (In Blue Zone)
• Mood of Red 1-10 scale 1 extremely unhappy
  to 10 extremely satisfied
• Refugees in/out of AOR few 0-5k, moderate
  5k-50k, many gt50k
• Alignment of sympathizer 00 to 99 scale of
  blue and red sympathizers
• 4. Collateral damage inflicted on Red
• A) Non-combatants killed by coalition
  Few 0-50, Moderate 50-200, Many gt200
• B) Sensitive infrastructure destroyed by
  coalition None, Few, Many
• Level of terrorist activity
• A) Terrorist attks against Coalition
  None, Some but manageable, Extensive
• B) Terrorist attks against NGOs None,
  Some but manageable, Extensive
• C) Terrorist attks against Red
  Indigenous None, Some but manageable,
  Extensive
• 6. Infrastructure level of basic services
  Reduced, Static, Improving

SEAS

• JWARS Military Campaign Results
• Blue operating in Region
• Blue operating in Region Country X
• Blue strikes against Belligerent
• Blue forces inside Belligerent Blue forces
  casualties
• Belligerent infrastructure destroyed
• Belligerent military casualties

• World Opinion
• UN Overt Disagree, deliberations with no
  decision, Support Resolution auth. troops
• GWOT Terrorist activities none, some,
  extensive
• Global Economy Economic growth world wide
  Recession, not Changing, Growing
• World Press Reaction. Favorable to Unfavorable

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JWARS Overview
C4ISR-centric, joint campaign-level model with
integrated Strategic Mobility, Theater Logistics,
and Joint Warfighting

• Strategic Mobility
• (Strategic movement of units and supplies from
  POE to POD)
• Strategic network
• Installations (APODs/SPODs)
• Scheduling based on a TPFDD

• Theater Logistics
• (Movement of units and supplies)
• Theater arc-node network
• Theater transport
• Logistic Sustainment planner
• Installations (HE effects)

• Joint Warfighting
• (C4ISR, Maneuver, Fight, Sustain the Force)
• Air, land, and maritime C3 Ops
• SOF Operations
• TBMD / Chemical defense
• Forcible entry operations
• Space Sensors

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Functionality
JWARS Release 1.5 Functionality
P Implemented P Partially Implemented
Not yet Implemented
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JWARS Way Ahead
Develop and enhance JWARS
Rel 1.5 -- Jul 03
Rel 2.0 -- Mar 06
Rel 1.6 -- Jan 05
Use JWARS
JWARS Study Team (1st Operational use assess
usability)

• Scenario Development / Analysis Reachback / User
  Support
• Center of Excellence to build scenarios, conduct
  analysis, and assist users in conducting analysis

JFCOM (for experiments)
Navy (for PR07 evaluation)

• Inform QDR (initially)
• Assess current and future risks capabilities
• Conduct capability assessments (initially)
• Theater context for experimentation / wargames
  (initially)
• Theater context for CPG DPG development
  (initially)
• Conduct OPlan development assessment (long-term)

• Users
• Initially -- OSD, JS, and JFCOM
• Long-term OSD, JS, JFCOM, Services, COCOMs, and
  agencies
• Scenarios
• Initially only 1 or 2 MCOs available
• Long-term multiple MCOs and SSCs available

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Influencing Opponents Will to Fight in JWARS
Diplomatic, Economic Information Actions

• Human-in-the Loop Assessment of Impact on
  Military
• Manual Control Cell (Effects Adjudication Cell)
• Off-line models SEAS modelPurdue University

JWARS Input Menus

• Attrition Based Ratings for Each Country
• Air Defense
• Battle Command
• CSS
• Combined Arms Ops
• Fire Support
• Maneuver
• Intelligence
• Joint Combined Ops

• Non-Attrition Based Ratings for Each Country
• Leadership
• Combat Experience
• Mobility Survivability
• Morale Cohesion
• Power Projection
• Readiness
• Training

• Unit Function
• Combat
• Combat Support
• Combat Service
• Support

• Unit Ranking
• Elite
• Standard
• Militia

• Threat Will to Fight Impacted in JWARS Sim
• Raise Decision Breakpoints at which threat will
  change activity due to its losses, e.g., go from
  attack to defend, and from defend to withdraw
• Decrease Rate of Direct Fire
• Decrease Rate of Direct Fire when under fire
• Decrease Speed of Maneuver when conducting
  offensive or retrograde operations
• Decrease Speed of Maneuver when under fire

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Summary Simulating to experiment on Military
Operations employing all elements of national
power in a complex social-political-military
environment. CY04 is a proof of principle for
JWARS and SEAS

• SEAS Exchanges expertise of white cell for
  expertise of simulation
• Explicitness of modeling complex
  social-political-military interactions
• open book reviewable
• makes experimentation possible on complex
  military campaigns