1 ISF 2004 www'grc'ae A'Sager

1
Workshop The Wider Middle East, Iraq and the
War on Terror 6th International Security Forum
(ISF) Montreux, 4-6 October 2004
Gulf Security Challenges and Threats
Abdulaziz O. Sager Chairman Gulf Research
Center sager_at_grc.ae
2
The Gulf Why is it important?
The Gulf Region is the most strategically importan
t region of the globe for the indefinite future

• Geographically - The Gulf region lies between
  east and west and is an intersection between
  Asia, Africa and Europe
• Culturally The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is home
  to Islam and it will remain the centre of the
  Islamic world
• Economically The Gulf contains two-thirds of
  the worlds proven reserves of oil. In 2000, the
  Gulf supplied 21.7 mb/d representing 28 of world
  total demand which represent 47 of the total
  world oil import and - This importance will
  increase The Gulf will produce 35 mb/d of oil
  in 2020, representing 33 of world total demand.
  Due to its production capacity, the Gulf will
  remain the stabilizing force in the world oil
  market

3
The Gulf Why is it important?

• Politically and Strategically Past tensions in
  the Gulf have had an impact worldwide and have
  led to the deep involvement of foreign forces in
  the region. It will remain important - the impact
  of the Gulf will increase due to the fact that
  the region is in the midst of accelerating and
  transformational change. This outcome of the
  shift remains to be determined but the strains on
  the present system will increase.
• The importance of the Gulf will likely further
  increase both in terms of the campaign against
  international terrorism and the war in Iraq. The
  US role will remain central

4
Gulf Security A Timeline
5
Gulf Security The Historical Perspective

• Neither of the approaches attempted in the past
  have brought about a more stable security
  environment. Regional powers un-deterable.
• Current Gulf Security is constructed on a
  military paradigm based on mutual antagonism ,
  iron-fist strategy.
• Gulf Security therefore as a term is a misnomer.
  There is no common understanding of what a
  security framework for the region should look
  like.

6
Gulf Security Who are the actors
Sources UN Population Division Population
Reference Bureau, 2004 Population Data Sheet
2003 Omani Census
7
Gulf Security Who are the actorsUS/UK Forces
in the Region
Source Global Security September 2004
8
Gulf Security The Current Situation
1.) Iraq Deteriorating Security Civil War
cannot be excluded US Casualties 1,039 (Sept.
24, 2004) Iraqi Casualties more than
15,000 (conservative estimate)Kidnappings
more than 150 since May 03 Strength of
Resistance 5,000 (Nov. 2003) (e) 20,000
(Sept. 2004) (e) Political Uncertainty
Elections Acceptance, Rejection,
Modification

Sources News Agencies Brookings Institution,
Iraq Index updated September 30, 2004.
9
Gulf Security The Current Situation
2.) Iran Under Increasing Pressure
Domestically Population over 70
million almost 60 below age of 24 tremendous
pressure on the existing system Strategically
Iranian nuclear program threat of ?
US/Israeli military action ? IAEA to refer
case to UN Security Council
10
Gulf Security The Current Situation

• 3.) GCC Ineffective/Rising Insecurity/Pressure
  of the System
• Issue Political Reform both internally and
  externally
• Increased Radicalism with diffuse violence
  spreading The case of
• Saudi Arabia (war against terrorism
  fatalities, Security Forces 39
• Nationals 18, Expatriates 55,
  Injuries439) (May 2003-August 2004)
• Labor Market Pressures (5,3 million job seekers
  by 2010 between age
• 18-35 male and female)
• Need for Economic Diversification Strategies
  (85 of state income
• dependent on oil) (e.)
• No effective defense mechanism (Peninsula
  Shield), reliance on US
• protection

11
Gulf Security The Current Situation

• 4.) Major US Presence/US Unilateralism
• Presence of large land and Sea forces
  distribution of military bases
• throughout region, military shift towards
  smaller GCC states and away
• from Saudi Arabia
• Political Reform Program under Greater Middle
  East Partnership
• Initiative
• Rising and unprecedented anti-Americanism
  dangerous mix

12
Gulf Security Scenarios for the Future
Scenario 1 Chaos in Iraq Situation continues
to deteriorate, US withdraws, civil war erupts
following flawed elections, violence begins to
spread throughout the region. Scenario 2
US-Iran ConfrontationIranian US
miscalculations lead to widening conflict
US/Israeli intervention results in Iranian
retaliatory responses.Scenario 3 Maintenance
of the Status Quo Iraq violence continues with
little progress either way, Iran confrontation
confined to diplomatic front. System remains
inherently unstable with the possibility of a
break-out conflict anytime Scenario 4
Unpredicted radical change in one of the GCC
member states. eg radical Islamist group control
powerScenario 5 US military action to control
oil fields to influence supply and prices
13
Gulf Security How to avoid a further
deterioration

• US must restructure view of region.
• Present US exclusion and hegemony built on
  military power therefore
• presents no change from past approaches. In
  addition, bilateralism will
• not solve outstanding conflicts
• No Gulf security without comprehensive
  involvement of all
• parties including other 3 Gulf States Iraq,
  Iran and Yemen.
• Future architecture of Gulf security must
  include all not exclude.
• Role of Europe / NATO to increase.
• EU/NATO must show that it has answers outside
  of the US approach.
• Essential to build on the European experience
  of incremental way
• to promote cooperation, trust and transparency.
  No need to re-
• invent the wheel.

14

• Thank You