911 AND INTERAMERICAN RELATIONS

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9/11 AND INTER-AMERICAN RELATIONS
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ALTERNATE FINAL EXAM!

• Monday, June 6
• 300-600 p.m.
• Center 109

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READING

• Smith, Talons, ch. 12 and Conclusion
• Roberto Russell, U.S. Policy toward Latin
  America A View from the South (Course Reader
  13)
• Lars Schoultz, U.S. Regional Security Policy
  Toward Latin America (Course Reader 14)
• George W. Bush, Second Inaugural Address (Course
  Reader 15)
• Smith, Be Careful What You Wish For (Course
  Reader 16)

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GEORGE BUSH AND LATIN AMERICA

• INTRODUCTION
• Change of administration
• Change of party
• Change of context 9/11

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• PHASE 1 INITIAL ORIENTATIONS
• High level of presidential interest
• Relationship with Mexico
• (and Vicente Fox)
• Support for FTAA
• Composition of administrative team
• Isolation of Cuba

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• PHASE 2 9/11 AND THE AMERICAS
• Change in regional priorities
• Unilateralist impulses
• End of wholesale immigration reform
• Stamp-collecting
• PHASE 3 DUAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS
• FTA with Chile, CAFTA
• Steel tariffs and farm bill
• Dualism Domestic politics and war on terrorism

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• CRISIS MANAGEMENT
• Argentina (December 2001)
• Venezuela (April 2002)
• Bolivia (October 2003)
• Haiti (February-March 2004)
• Venezuela (August 2004)

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• THE PATTERN
• Insufficient attention
• Blame incumbents for their problems, especially
• if unpopular within Bush circles
• No preventive action
• Deny involvement
• Recognize successor
• Result What about democracy?

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PROSPECTS FOR BUSH II

• Short-Term Issues
• Staffing
• Migration reform
• CAFTA
• Democracy crusade
• Longer-Term Questions
• Level of priority low or high
• Operational mode unilateral or multilateral

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Table 1. Potential U.S. Policies toward Latin
America _________Latin America as
Priority___________ ______ Low _______
_______ High _____ Operational Mode for
U.S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc
Systematic interventionism
interventionism (Bush 2001-04)
(Reagan 1981-89) _______ _________________
__________________
Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral
low-level high-level
diplomacy engagement (Clinton
1993-2000) (Kennedy 1961-63)
__________________________________________________
__________
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Table 2. Rank-Order Preferences for U.S.
Policy ___Partners___
__Targets___ U.S. Policy
(Mexico, (Cuba, __Rivals__
__Bystanders__ __Configuration__ _Bush II__
__Colombia)__ __Venezuela)__
__(Brazil)__ ___(Others)____ Low priority
1 4 2 1
4 Unilateral Low priority
2 3 1 2 2
Multilateral High priority 3 1
4 4 3
Unilateral High priority 4 2
3 3 1
Multilateral Note As presented here,
ordinal rankings mean that 1 stands for the
first-place (most preferable) choice, 2 for the
second-place choice, 3 for the third-place
choice, and 4 for the fourth-place (least
preferable) choice.
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WHAT CAN LATIN AMERICA DO?

• INTRODUCTION
• Dynamics of inter-American relations
• Power asymmetries
• Quest for strategic options
• 1990s vs. post-9/11

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• THE 1990s CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
• U.S. hegemony
• Ideological consensus (or end of history?)
• Implausibility of revolution
• Fragmentation of Third World

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THE 1990s STRATEGIC OPTIONS Option 1 Trading
Around (Chile) Option 2 Joining with the North
(Mexico) Option 3 Affirming Self-Reliance
(Argentina, Brazil, others) Option 4 Seeking
Extra-hemispheric Partnerships Option 5
Missing? (The Bolivarian Dream)
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IMPACTS OF 9/11

• Continuity (Roberto Russell)
• Factors affecting U.S. interest
• Size
• Proximity
• Level of perceived threat
• Phases
• Post 9/11 inattention to region
• Mid-2002-present greater focus?

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DEFINING FACTORS

• Democratization in Latin America
• Opening of region to world economy
• Emphasis on economic regionalism
• Cultural changes since 1980s
• Contextual variable end of Cold War
• Structural variable globalization

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• Inter-American Agenda
• Homeland security and civil-military relations
• Principles of nonintervention (and sovereignty)
• Role of Brazil
• Unilateralism in United States, fragmentation
• in Latin America

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• SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS
• Changing U.S. Priorities Can Neglect Be Benign?
• Wars on Terrorism Beware Slippery Slopes!
• Dilemmas for Democrats
• Anti-American Sentiments After All These Years.
• Policy Alternatives

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LOOKING AHEAD PROSPECTS FOR LATIN
AMERICA Bolivarian dream redux? Popular
voices The democratic paradox