An Application of Dual System Estimation Principles

1
An Application of Dual System Estimation
Principles

• Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, SMG
• October 28, 2004

2
National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) Listing
Compared to EIA Survey Frame

• NREL collects data (from secondary sources) on
  generator nameplate capacity from renewable
  energy generating plants.
• The NREL list is publicly available.
• EIA collects data on renewable plants but with a
  1MW cutoff.
• Goal To estimate the number of facilities
  missing from both frames.

3
Total Data

• NREL list 5,146 facilities
• EIA frame 4,960 facilities

4
Estimate of Facilities Missing in Both

• X Pr(NREL error) Pr(EIA error) Total number
  of known facilities
• X (28/5174) (214/5174) 5174
• X 1.2 missing elements

5
Apply Principle to Each Fuel

• For all fuels except Agricultural Residues, the
  estimate is 0
• Agricultural Residues 27 NREL, 33 EIA

6
Estimate Missing in Both

• X Pr(NREL error) Pr(EIA error) Total number
  of known facilities.
• X (14/41) (8/41) 41 2.7 missing

7
Assumptions

• 2 necessary assumptions (neither of which hold)
• Frames need to be independently assembled.
• NREL uses secondary sources including EIA.
• Missing frame information should be random rather
  than systematic.
• Appears not to be the case 140 out of 214 of the
  missing elements in the EIA frame (65) are
  timber residues.