Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Agriculture Sector

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Agriculture Sector

• Jakarta, Indonesia23 March 2006
• Ana IglesiasUniversidad Politécnica de Madrid

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Objective

• To provide participants with information on VA
  assessment for the agriculture sector
• A general discussion on the impacts of climate
  variability and change on agriculture and food
  security
• Methods, tools and issues to assess VA
• PC based training on methods, tools, issues

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Outline

• Climate variability and change, agriculture and
  food security (½ h)
• Key differential vulnerabilities (½ h)
• Key issues (½ h)
• Integration and cooperation (social, water)
• Calibration
• Extreme events
• Uncertainties
• PC based training Models, assisting tools for
  stakeholders, risk management (3 h)
• Designing the framework (½ h)
• Participatory evaluation and prioritization of
  adaptation (½ h)
• PC based training (2 h)
• Total (4 ½ h)

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Agenda
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Climate, agriculture, and food security

• Climate change is one stress among many
  affecting agriculture and the population that
  depends on it

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Observations Increased drought

• Persistent drying trend in parts of Africa has
  affected food production, including freshwater
  fisheries, industrial and domestic water
  supplies, hydropower generation (Magazda, 1986
  Benson and Clay, 1998 Chifamba, 2000 Iglesias
  and Moneo, 2005)

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Drought in the Mediterranean
Correlation betwen total rainfall and
agricultural production r0.82
Source R. Mougou, INRGREF
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Drought in the Mediterranean
Source Iglesias and Moneo, 2004
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Longer growing seasons
In Australia, climate change appears to have
increased wheat yield by about 10 to 20 since
1952 (Nicholls, 1997)
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Multiple interactions, vulnerability and
adaptation
Systems and social groups that need to adapt
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Social vulnerability

• Starvation is the characteristic of some people
  not having enough food to eat. It is not the
  characteristic of there being not enough food to
  eat. While the later can cause the former, it is
  but one of many possible causes.
• A. Sen, Poverty and Famines, An Essay on
  Entitlement and Deprivation, 1981, pg 1

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Multiple interactions Stakeholders define
adaptation
Scientists
Civil stake-holders
Policy makers
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Concepts are important The big picture
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Agriculture empirical evidence
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Source Wei Xiong, Erda Lin, Xiu Yang, et al.,
2006
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Possible benefits
Possible drawbacks
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Weeds, pests and diseases

• Weeds, pests, and diseased damage about one half
  of the potential production every year

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Climate change affects crop production

• Changes in biophysical conditions
• Changes in socio-economic conditions in response
  to changes in crop productivity (farmers income
  markets and prices poverty malnutrition and
  risk of hunger migration)

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How might global climate change affect food
production?
Percentage change in average crop yields for the
Hadley Center global climate change scenario
(HadCM3). Direct physiological effects of CO2 and
crop adaptation are taken into account. Crops
modeled are wheat, maize, and rice. Source
NASA/GISS Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2002 Parry
et al, 2004
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Limits to adaptation

• Technological limits (i.e., crop tolerance to
  water-logging or high temperature water
  reutilization)
• Social limits (i.e., acceptance of biotechnology)
• Political limits (i.e., rural population
  stabilization may not be optimal land use
  planning)
• Cultural limits (i.e., acceptance of water price
  and tariffs)

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Developed-Developing country differences
Potential change () in national cereal yields
for the 2080s (compared with 1990) using the
HadCM3 GCM and SRES scenarios (Parry et al., 2004)
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Additional people at risk of hunger
Parry et al., 2004
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Interaction and integration Water
University of Southampton
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Conclusions

• While global production appears stable, . . .
• . . . regional differences in crop production are
  likely to grow stronger through time, leading to
  a significant polarization of effects, . . .
• . . . with substantial increases in prices and
  risk of hunger amongst the poorer nations
• Most serious effects are at the margins
  (vulnerable regions and groups)

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Agenda
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Key differential vulnerabilities

• Climate change is one stress among many now
  affecting agriculture and the population that
  depends on it
• Integration of results and stakeholder definition
  of adaptation strategies are essential to
  formulate assessments relevant to policy
• Potential future consequences depend on
• The region and the agricultural system Where?,
  The baseline is important
• The magnitude How much? Scenarios are important
• The socio-economic response What happens in
  response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal
  adaptation) and planned stakeholder adaptation
  and policy

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Where? Systems and social groups
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How much? Climate and SRES scenarios
Had CM2 model, 2050s
Temperature change
Precipitation change
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What happens in response to change?

• Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation)
• Planned adaptation

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Definition of key vulnerabilities

• Expert judgement
• Stakeholder consultation
• Empirical evidence
• Scientific knowledge of processes
• Models are assisting tools

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Check list and ranking of potential
vulnerabilities - Examples

• Components of the farming system particularly
  vulnerable
• Stress on water/irrigation systems
• Domestic agricultural production
• Food shortages that lead to an increase in hunger
• Agricultural exports
• Prices to consumers
• Government policies such as agricultural pricing,
  support, research and development
• Greater stress on natural resources or contribute
  to environmental degradation (e.g., through
  land-use change, soil degradation, changes in
  water supply and water quality, pesticide use,
  etc.)
• Research/extension system capability for
  providing adaptation advice to farmers
• Technological options in place

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Key vulnerabilities
Who can adapt? Who is vulnerable?
Individuals particularly vulnerable to
environmental change are those with .

• Relatively high exposures to changes
• High sensitivities to changes
• Low coping and adaptive capacities
• Low resilience and recovery potential

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Agenda
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Key issues

• Integration and cooperation (social, water)
• Calibration
• Extreme events
• Uncertainties

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Key issues Pressures and solutions

• Water
• Population
• Economic and social development
• Technology (water desalination, reuse,
  efficiency)
• Agricultural technology
• Cooperation
• Improved management

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Water
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Population
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Economic and social development
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Integration and cooperation
Additional population under extreme stress of
water shortage
Source University of Southampton
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Water

• The agriculture sector needs water supply
  scenarios
• Policy defines how much water can be used by
  agriculture
• Water policy and rights are extremely hard to
  change

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Water conflicts
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Transboundary surface and groundwater

• Water can lead to political hostilities and many
  regions with political conflicts also share water
  resources

www.bgr.de/app/whymap/
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Political and cultural process

• The political process reflects the view about
  future of the resources and economies, therefore
  defines the range of adaptation options
• Cultural impediments to change traditional water
  management add complexity to the design of
  adaptation strategies

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Tunisia National strategy on water management
(Source R. Mougou)
Current and projected water demand ()
1996 2030 Drinking 11.5
17.7 Irrigation 83.7 73.5 Tourism 0.7
1.5 Industrial 4.1 7.3

• Resources management
• Mobilization, storage (over 1,000 hill
  reservoirs in 10 years), and transfer of the
  resources
• Use of the non conventional resources saline and
  waste water for irrigation (95,400 and 7,600 ha)
• Desalinization
• Demand management
• Water saving in irrigation (up to 60 Government
  subsidies)

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Example Integrated assessment in Egypt
Source El-Shaer et al., 1997 Strzpek et al.,
1999
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Cooperation and integration

• Your expert opinion, consultation

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Calibration of models

• This afternoon
• Documentation

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Extreme events

• Your expert opinion, consultation
• Large knowledge based on risk management of
  natural disasters
• Empirical evidence is essential (external shock,
  impacts, vulnerability)

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Uncertainties

• Your expert opinion, consultation
• Climate change scenarios
• Climate variability
• Stakeholder adaptation
• Agricultural models
• Effects of CO2 on crops
• Issues of scale
• Socio economic projections

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Thanks for your attention!
Visit MEDROPLAN on the web www.iamz.ciheam.org/med
roplan
ana.iglesias_at_upm.es
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Agenda
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The process Example
Set up a Multidisciplinary Stakeholder Team
(Organizational component)
Public review and Revision Public
dissemination (Operational component)
Select and identify priority actions, based on
agreed criteria (Operational component)
Evaluate the legal, social, and political
process (Organizational component)
Identify risk and potential vulnerabilities
(Methodological component)
www.iamz.ciheam.org/medroplan
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Agenda
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Bottom-up stakeholder adaptation

• Objective of the strategy To minimize impacts of
  a warmer and drier climate while maintaining
  rural agricultural production and minimizing the
  environmental damage
• Consideration of effectiveness to minimize the
  impacts of a warmer and drier climate, cost, and
  feasibility
• Adequacy for situation without climate change
  (win-win strategy)

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Bottom-up stakeholder adaptation

• Possible tool MCA WEAP

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Bottom-up stakeholder adaptation
Surveys Adaptation to climate change in Tunisia,
Source R. Mougou
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Bottom-up stakeholder adaptation
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Water harvesting
Source T. Oweis, 2004
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Bottom-up stakeholder adaptationExamples

• Tactical advice crop calendar
• Tactical advice water needs
• Improve cash return for water and land units
• Management of risk in water
• Investment
• Integrated resource management for water and land
• Education
• Private sector participation
• Alternatives for the use of natural resources and
  infrastructure
• Crop residue incorporation
• Access to fertilizer
• Extension services

• Indigenous knowledge
• Short-duration varieties
• Crop diversification
• New crop varieties
• New crops
• Agroforestry
• Food storage
• Agrometeorological advice
• Construction of a dam
• Irrigation (new scheme)
• Irrigation (improved system)
• Water harvesting
• Water desalination / reutilization
• Cease activity

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Example Use MCA WEAP
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Agenda
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Assisting tools to stakeholders

• Need quantitative estimates
• Models are assisting tools
• Surveys to stakeholders are assisting tools for
  designing bottom-up adaptation options
• Key variables for agronomic and socio-economic
  studies crop production, land suitability, water
  availability, farm income,

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Before getting started .

• Models are assisting tools, stakeholder
  participation is essential
• The use of models requires high degree of
  technical expertise
• The merits of each model and approach vary
  according to the objective of the study, and they
  may frequently be mutually supportive
• Therefore, a mix of tools and approaches is often
  the most rewarding

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Quantitative methods and tools

• Experimental
• Analogues (spatial and temporal)
• Production functions (statistically derived)
• Agro-climatic indices
• Crop simulation models (generic and
  crop-specific)
• Economic models (farm, national, and regional)
  Provide results that are relevant to policy
• Social analysis tools (surveys and interviews)
  Allow the direct input of stakeholders
  (demand-driven science), provide expert judgment
• Integrators GIS

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Experimental
Example growth chambers, experimental fields.
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Experimental Effect of Increased CO2
Near Phoenix, Arizona, scientists measure the
growth of wheat surrounded by elevated levels of
atmospheric CO2. The study, called Free Air
Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE), is to measure
CO2 effects on plants. It is the largest
experiment of this type ever undertaken.
http//www.ars.usda.gov
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Analogues (space and time)
Example existing climate in another area or in
previous time
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Analogues drought, floods
Africa vegetation health (VT - index) Vegetation
health Red stressed, Green fair, Blue
favorable Source NOAA/NESDIS
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Production functions
Example Derived with empirical data.
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Production functions
Statistically derived functions (Almeria Wheat)
Yield
Irrigation demand
Iglesias, 1999 Iglesias et al., 2000
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Agroclimatic indices
Example FAO, etc.
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Agroclimatic Indices
Length of the growing periods (reference climate,
1961-1990). IIASA-FAO, AEZ
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Crop models
Example CROPWAT, CERES, SOYGRO, APSIM, WOFOST,
etc.
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Crop models
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Models - Advantages

• Models are assisting tools, stakeholder
  interaction is essential
• Models allow to ask what if questions, the
  relative benefit of alternative management can be
  highlighted
• Improve planning and decision making
• Assist in applying lessons learned to policy
  issues
• Models permit integration across scales, sectors,
  and users

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Models - Limitations

• Models need to be calibrated and validated to
  represent reality
• Models need data and technical expertise
• Models alone do not provide an answer,
  stakeholder interaction is essential

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Economic and social tools
Example Farm, econometric, I/O, national
economies, MCA WEAP
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Economic models

• Consider both producers and consumers of
  agricultural goods (supply and demand)
• Economic measures of interest include
• How do prices respond to production amounts?
• How is income maximized with different production
  and consumption opportunities?
• Microeconomic Farm
• Macroeconomic Regional economies
• All Crop yield is a primary input (demand is the
  other primary input)
• Economic models should be built bottom-up

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Differences in farming systems
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Social sciences tools

• Surveys and interviews
• Allow the direct input of stakeholders (bottom-up
  approach is emphasized)
• Provide expert judgment in a rigorous way

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Integrators GIS
Example . All possible applications .
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Conclusions

• The merits of each approach vary according to the
  level of impact being studied, and they may
  frequently be mutually supportive
• Therefore, a mix of approaches is often the most
  rewarding
• Data are required data to define climatic,
  non-climatic environmental, and socio-economic
  baselines and scenarios
• Data is limited
• Discussion on supporting databases and data
  sources

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Data Scales, Sources, Reliability
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PC Based examples

• DSSAT
• CROPWAT

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Can crop models explain observations?
Data FAOSTAT
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• Some crops are more complicated than others .

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Practical Applications DSSAT
International Consortium for Agricultural
Systems Applications
http//www.icasanet.org/
http//www.clac.edu.eg
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Applications of DSSAT to answer adaptation
questions

• What components of the farming system are
  particularly vulnerable, and may thus require
  special attention?

• Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to
  climate?

• What are the characteristics of optimized crop
  varieties?

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DSSAT Decision Support System for Agrotechnology
Transfer
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Input Requirements

• WEATHER Daily precipitation, maximum and minimum
  temperatures, solar radiation
• SOIL Soil texture and soil water measurements
• MANAGEMENT planting date, variety, row spacing,
  irrigation and N fertilizer amounts and dates, if
  any
• CROP DATA dates of anthesis and maturity,
  biomass and yield, measurements on growth and LAI

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ESSENTIAL STEP 1. Crop Model Validation
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Key issues

• Limitations of datasets
• Limitations of models
• Lack of technical expertise and resources
• Limitations of the studies due to lack of
  integration with
• Water availability and demand
• Social and economic response

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Datasets

• Data are required data to define climatic,
  non-climatic environmental, and socio-economic
  baselines and scenarios
• Data is limited
• Discussion on supporting databases and data
  sources

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Guided examples

• Effect of management (nitrogen and irrigation) in
  wet and dry sites (Florida, USA, and Syria)
• Effect of climate change on wet and dry sites
• Sensitivity analysis to changes in temperature
  and precipitation (thresholds), and CO2 levels

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Application 1. Management

• Objective Getting started

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Weather
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Input files needed

• Weather
• Soils
• Cultivars
• Management files (.MZX files) description of the
  experiment

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Open DSSAT
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Examine the data files
Weather file
Soil file
Genotype file (Definition of cultivars)
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Location of the cultivar file
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Select the cultivar file
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Examine the cultivar file
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Examine the cultivar file
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Location of the weather file
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Selection of the weather file
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Examine the weather file
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Calculate monthly means
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Calculate monthly means
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Program to generate weather data
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Location of the input experiment file
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Select the experiment file
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Examine the experiment file (Syria)
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Examine the experiment file (Florida)
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The experiment file can be edited also with a
text editor (Notepad) .
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Start simulation
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Running
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Select experiment
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Select treatment
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View the results
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Select option
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Retrieve output files for analysis

• C/DSSAT35/MAIZE/SUMMARY.OUT
• C/DSSAT35/MAIZE/WATER.OUT
• C/DSSAT35/MAIZE/OVERVIEW.OUT
• C/DSSAT35/MAIZE/GROWTH.OUT
• C/DSSAT35/MAIZE/NITROGEN.OUT
• There are DOS text files
• Can be imported into Excel

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Analyse and present results
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Application 2. Sensitivity to climate

• Objective Effect of weather modification

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Start simulation
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Sensitivity analysis
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Select option
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Analyse results .
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Proposed application Adaptation

• For advanced participants

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Adaptation

• Management strategy Explicit guidance to farmers
  regarding optimal crop selection, irrigation, and
  fertilization, and should institute strong
  incentives to avoid excessive water use
• Use the DSSAT models to evaluate the use of
  alternative existing varieties and changes in the
  timing of planting to optimize yield levels or
  water use

Pioneer, April 00 - 129
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Applications of CROPWAT to answer adaptation
questions

• Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress
  of changes in water supply/demand?

• Will climate change significantly affect
  agricultural water demand production?

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http//www.clac.edu.eg
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Experiments

• Calculate ET0
• Calculate crop water requirements
• Calculate irrigation requirements for several
  crops in a farm

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Start CROPWAT
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Retrieve climate file
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Examine temperature
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Examine ET0
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Calculate ET0
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Examine rainfall
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Retrieve crop parameters
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View progress of inputs
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Define and view crop areas selected
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Define irrigation method
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Input data completed
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Calculate irrigation demand
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Calculate irrigation schedule
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View results
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Review

• Climate variability and change, agriculture and
  food security
• Key differential vulnerabilities
• Key issues
• Models, assisting tools for stakeholders, risk
  management
• Designing the framework
• Participatory evaluation and prioritization of
  adaptation
• PC based training

ana.iglesias_at_upm.es
148
Review

• Climate variability and change, agriculture and
  food security
• Key differential vulnerabilities
• Key issues
• Integration and cooperation (social, water)
• Calibration
• Extreme events
• Uncertainties
• PC based training Models, assisting tools for
  stakeholders, risk management
• Designing the framework
• Participatory evaluation and prioritization of
  adaptation
• PC based training