The Truth about Global Climate Change in Florida

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The Truth about Global Climate Change in Florida?
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The Truth about Global Climate Change in Florida

• By
• Dr. James J. OBrien
• Retired Emeritus
• Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor
• Meteorology and Oceanography
• Florida State University

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What if sea level rose 6 meters?
Image courtesy of Environmental Studies
Laboratory, University of Arizona
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Where do I stand on global warming?
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OF COURSE CC IS OCCURINGI ALSO BELIEVE IN
RENUABLE ENERGY, CONSERVATION AND OTHER POSITIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIONSBUT I WILL TELL YOU ONLY
THE TRUTH ABOUT CC IN FL BASED ON DATA
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TOPICS TO DISCLOSE

• Natural climate change- oranges
• Natural plus AGW-sea level rise
• SE USA ALC- Cooling
• NO AGW-Hurricanes
• Freezes,tornadoes-conclusions

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THE FLORIDA ORANGE STORY
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HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES
Major Impact Freezes Feb 1835 Mentions of
orange groves in St. Augustine, FL, Northern
Florida, Southern Georgia and parts of coastal
South Carolina. The freeze destroyed all groves
north of 28N- eliminated groves entirely from
Georgia and South Carolina. Dec 1894/Feb 1895
Groves in Jacksonville, Palatka, Deland, and Fort
George complete destroyed. Most growers that had
groves north of Ocala relocated to Hillsborough,
Manatee and Polk counties- though some still
stayed north. Mentions of groves in the
following counties Alachua, Pinellas,
Hillsborough, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Sumter,
DeSoto, Lee, Indian River, and Manatee Dec 1962
Heavy damage north and west of a line from
Volusia across to Manatee, Hardee and DeSoto.
Mentions of groves in the following counties
Marion, Putnam, Volusia, Pasco, Hernando, Lake,
Citrus, Sumter, Orange, Osceola, Seminole,
Hillsborough, Polk, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota,
Brevard, Hardee, DeSoto, Highlands, Lee, Hendry,
Charlotte, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm
Beach, Broward Dec 1983 Heavy damage reported
in Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake,
Marion, Orange, Pasco, Putnam, St. Johns,
Seminole, Sumter, Volusia Extensive damage
reported in Northern Hillsborough, N. Osceola, N.
Polk Moderate damage reported in Hillsborough,
Pinellas, Polk, Brevard Minimal damage reported
in Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee,
Henry, Highlands, Indian River, Lee, Martin,
Okeechobee, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, Sarasota.
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HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES
Dec 1983 Heavy damage reported in Alachua,
Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Orange,
Pasco, Putnam, St. Johns, Seminole, Sumter,
Volusia Extensive damage reported in Northern
Hillsborough, N. Osceola, N. Polk Moderate damage
reported in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk,
Brevard Minimal damage reported in Charlotte,
Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Henry,
Highlands, Indian River, Lee, Martin, Okeechobee,
Palm Beach, St. Lucie, Sarasota. Jan 1985
Light damage reported south of a line from
Manatee to Indian River. Heavy damage in Citrus,
Hernando, Marion, Sumter, Volusia, Lake, N.
Orange, N. Seminole, Pasco, N. Polk, N. Osceola,
Brevard. Other counties mentioned has having
groves Highlands, Hillsborough, Hardee, DeSoto,
Manatee, Sarasota, Indian River, St. Lucie,
Martin, Okeechobee, Glades, Hendry, Lee Dec
1989 By this freeze, Alachua and Putnam Counties
were removed from the survey due to the lack of
orange groves. This freeze also pushed the
following counties to be removed/or nearly
removed from the survey Marion, Hernando,
Citrus, Sumter, Volusia. Most mature trees were
killed in Lake, Orange Sumter and Volusia
counties. Severe damage reported in Polk County.
Other counties surveyed Pasco, Hillsborough,
Osceola, Hardee, DeSoto, Brevard, Highlands,
Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach,
Okeechobee, Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry,
Lee
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THE ORANGE STORY
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THE ORANGE STORY
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THE ORANGE STORY
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THE ORANGE STORY
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The Sea Level Story
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Local sea level measurements
Key West 2.27 mm/yr
Pensacola 2.14 mm/yr
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Sea Level Rise

• Global Measurements from Tide Gauges 2.1
  mm/year 8.4 in/century
• Global Measurement from Altimeter 3.1 mm/year
  12.4 in/century
• There is no acceleration observed
• Al Gore says 20 feet sometime
• At current rate, 5 feet will take 484 years
• At double current rate, 5 feet in 242 years
• At quadruple rate, 5 feet in 141 years
• The pertinent question for Florida is not will
  sea level rise but will storms get stronger

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What if sea level rose 6 meters?
Image courtesy of Environmental Studies
Laboratory, University of Arizona
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Historic sea level rise

• Sea level measurements from 23 highest quality
  tidal stations around the world.
• Estimates of sea level rise from 1 mm/yr to 2
  mm/yr.
• Satellite measurements (altimeters) since 1992
  indicate a rise of around 3mm/yr.
• IPCC third assessment report stated "No
  significant acceleration in the rate of sea level
  rise during the 20th century has been detected."

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THE FLORIDA TEMPERATURE STORY

• MOST RURAL STATIONS ARE COOLING 2-4 F/CENTURY

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ALBANY, NY MAX TEMP
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ALBANY MIN TEMP
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TAMPA MIN TEMP
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MADISON,FL-MIN TEMP
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A Closer Look De Funiak Springs

• Town is located to the northeast of Eglin AFB, a
  large expanse of undeveloped forests.
• Surrounding countryside consists of pastures,
  farmland, and pine forests.
• Station located at Showel Farms, 3 miles to the
  east of the city.
• Walton County population is very low at around
  40,000.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

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A Closer Look De Funiak Springs
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A Closer Look Arcadia

• Small Town surrounded by pastures, citrus groves,
  pine stands, and lowlands.
• Station located at the water treatment plant
  inside the city limits.
• Arcadia has grown very little in the last 40
  years and only has a population of around 10,000.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

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A Closer Look Arcadia
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A Closer Look Fort Myers

• Station located at Page Field near downtown Fort
  Myers.
• The city of Fort Myers has experienced tremendous
  urban sprawl in the last 40 years.
• Lee county population has ballooned from 60,000
  to over a half million in the last 40 years.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

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A Closer Look Fort Myers
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A Closer Look Belle Glade

• Small Farming community near the southern shore
  of Lake Okeechobee.
• Station located 2.5 miles south of town at the
  Agriculture Experiment Station.
• Relatively stable population.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
• Data record SHOULD be reflective of predominant
  climate trends.

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A Closer Look Belle Glade
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Wrong!!! Land Use Change
Land cover maps of Florida from the pre-1900s
and from 1993 show the area south of Okeechobee
now surrounded by irrigated sugar cane fields.
Mesoscale modeling has shown large summertime
temperature differences in the area from
differences in land use (Marshall, et al., 2004).
Temperature difference in degrees C
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THE HURRICANE STORY
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Probability of Hurricane Landfall U.S. Coast
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2-Year Period Signal Trend
25-Year Period Signal Trend
Smoothed Time Series
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2-Year Period 25-Year Period Signals Trend
Smoothed Time Series
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Impact Freezes of the last century
Freeze Date ENSO State Dec 1894
Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec
1934 Neutral Jan 1940
Neutral Dec 1962 Neutral Jan
1977 El Nino Jan 1981
Neutral Dec 1983 Neutral Jan
1985 Neutral Dec 1989
Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral High
Impact
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Temperature Extremes
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Precipitation Extremes
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What do we do?

• Educate
• Adaptation/mitigation
• Measure changes

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THE END

• QUESTIONS PLEASE

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