Smart Home Technologies

1
Smart Home Technologies

• Decision Making

2
Motivation

• Intelligent Environments are aimed at improving
  the inhabitants experience and task performance
• Provide appropriate information
• Automate functions in the home
• Prediction techniques can only determine what
  would happen next, not what should happen next.
• Automated functions can be different from
  inhabitant actions
• Computer has to determine actions that would
  optimize inhabitant experience

3
Decision Making

• Decision Making attempts to determine the actions
  the system should take in the current situation
• Should a function be automated ?
• What should be done next ?
• Decisions should be based on the current context
  and the requirements of the inhabitants
• Just programmed timers for automation are not
  sufficient
• Decision maker has to take into account the
  stream of data

4
Decision Making in Intelligent Environments

• Example Decision Making Tasks in Intelligent
  Environments
• Automation of physical devices
• Turn on lights
• Regulate heating and air conditioning
• Control media devices
• Automate lawn sprinklers
• Automate robotic components (vacuum cleaner, etc)
• Control of information devices
• Provide recipe services in the kitchen
• Construct shopping lists
• Decide which types of alarms to display (and
  where)

5
Decision Making inIntelligent Environments

• Objectives of decision making
• Optimize inhabitant productivity
• Minimize operating costs
• Maximize inhabitant comfort
• Decision making process has to be safe
• Decisions made can never endanger inhabitants or
  cause damage
• Decisions should be within the range accepted by
  the inhabitants

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Example Task

• Should a light be turned on ?
• Decision Factors
• Inhabitants location (current and future)
• Inhabitants task
• Inhabitants preferences
• Time of the day
• Other inhabitants
• Energy efficiency
• Security
• Possible Decisions
• Turn on
• Do not automate

7
Decision Making Approaches

• Pre-programmed decisions
• Timer-based automation
• Reactive decision making systems
• Decisions are based on condition-action rules
• Decisions are driven by the available facts
• Goal-based decision making systems
• Decisions are made in order to achieve a
  particular outcome
• Utility-based decision making systems
• Decisions are made in order to maximize a given
  performance measure

8
Reactive Decision Making
9
Goal-Based Decision Making
10
Utility-Based Decision Making
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Qualities of a Decision Making

• Ideal
• Complete always makes a decision
• Correct decision is always right
• Natural knowledge easily expressed
• Efficient
• Rational
• Decisions made to maximize performance

12
Decision-Making Techniques

• Reactive Decision Making
• Rule-based expert system
• Goal-Based Decision Making
• Planning
• Decision theoretic Decision Making
• Belief Networks
• Markov decision process
• Learning Techniques
• Neural Networks
• Reinforcement Learning

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Rule-Based Decision Making

• Decisions are made based on rules and facts
• Facts represent the state of the environment
• Represented as first-order predicate logic
• Condition-Action rules represent heuristic
  knowledge about what to do
• Rules represent implications that imply actions
  from logic sentences about facts
• Inference mechanism
• Deduction A, A ? B ? B
• The left hand side of rules are matched against
  the set of facts
• Rules where the left hand side matches are active

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Rule-Based Inference

• Rules define what actions should be executed for
  a given set of conditions (facts)
• Actions can either be external actions
  (automation) or internal updates of the set of
  facts (state update)
• Rules are often heuristics provided by an expert
• Multiple rules can be active at any given time
• Conflict resolution to decide which rule to fire
• Scheduling of active rules to perform sequence of
  actions

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Example

• Facts
• CurrentTime 630
• Location(CurrentTime,bedroom)
• CurrentDay Monday
• Rules
• Internal actions
• (CurrentDayMonday)(CurrentTimegt600)
• (CurrentTimelt700)(Location(CurrentTime,bedroo
  m))
• -gtSet(Location(NextTime,bathroom))
• External actions
• (Location(NextTime,X)) -gt Action(TurnOnLight,X)

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Rule-Based Expert Systems

• Intended to simulate (and automate) human
  reasoning process
• Domain is modeled in first-order logic
• State is represented by a set of facts
• Internal rules model behavior of the environment
• Experts provide sets of heuristic
  condition-action rules
• Rules with internal actions can model reasoning
  process
• Rules with external actions indicate decisions
  the expert would make
• The system can optionally be provided with
  queries by including them in the facts set.

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Internal Rules

• Internal rules have to model the behavior of the
  system
• Persistence over time
• E.g. (Location(CurrentTime,X))(NoMove(CurrentTi
  me))
• -gt Set(Location(NextTime,X))
• Dynamic behavior of devices
• E.g. (Temperature(CurrentTime,X))(HeatingOn)
• -gt Set(Temperature(NextTime,X2))
• Behavior of the inhabitants
• E.g. (Location(CurrentTime,bedroom))
• (CurrentTimegt2300)
• (LightOn(CurrentTime, bedroom))
• -gt Action(TurnOffLight, bedroom)

18
Rule-Based Expert Systems
WORKING MEMORY (Facts)
INFERENCE ENGINE
EXECUTION ENGINE
PATTERN MATCHER
RULE BASE
AGENDA
Rule-Based Expert System Architecture
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Logic Inference Systems and Expert System Shells

• Logic programming systems provide inference
  capabilities.
• Examples
• Prolog
• OTTER
• Expert system shells provide the infrastructure
  to build complete expert systems
• Examples
• CLIPS (for C)
• JESS (for Java)

20
Example System IRoom Kul02

• Initial versions of the MIT IRoom project used
  JESS as an inference engine to make decisions
  about activating devices
• For example
• If a person enters the room and the room is empty
  
• then turn on the light
• Rules are programmed by the system designer
  before the room is used and then refined based on
  experience
• Kul02 Ajay Kulkarni. Design Principles of a
  Reactive Behavioral System for the Intelligent
  Room.. 2002.

21
Rule-Based Decision Making

• Characteristics
• Complete and correct (given complete rules)
• Natural (given expert specified rules)
• Advantages
• Permits the system to be programmed relatively
  efficiently by an expert
• Can address relatively complex systems
• Problems
• Quality of the rules is essential
• Behavior of the environment mimics the expert
• Anticipating all possible contexts is difficult

22
Planning Decisions

• A planning system searches for a sequence of
  actions which can achieve a defined goal.
• States can be represented as logic sequences
• Actions are defined as operators (symbolic
  representations of the effect and conditions of
  actions) which contain
• Preconditions of actions
• Effects of actions
• A goal is a set of states
• Planning system uses constraints to efficiently
  search for a sequence of operators that lead from
  the start state to a goal state.

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Example

• Initial State (Location(bedroom))(Light(bathroo
  m,off))
• Goal Happy(Inhabitant)
• Action 1 MakeHappy
• Precondition (Location(X))(Light(X,on))
• Effect Add Happy(Inhabitant)
• Action 2 TurnOnLight(X)
• Precondition Light(X,off)
• Effect Delete Light(X,off), Add Light(X,on)
• Action 3 Move(X, Y)
• Precondition (Location(X))(Light(Y,on))
• Effect Delete Location(X), Add Location(Y)
• Plan Action 2, Action 3, Action 1

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Example
25
Example Planning Systems

• Partial Order Planners
• Derive plans without requiring to find actions in
  sequence
• SNLP (Univ. of Washington)
• GraphPlan (CMU)
• Builds and prunes graph of possible plans
• Conditional Planners
• Derive plans under uncertainty by constructing
  plans that work under given conditions
• UCPOP (Univ. of Washington)
• Partial Order Planner with Universal
  quanitification and Conditional effects CPOP
• Sensory GraphPlan (CMU)

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Planning Decisions

• Characteristics
• Complete and correct (given complete rules)
• Relatively natural formulation
• Advantages
• Permits a sequence of actions to be found that
  performs a given task
• Goals can be defined easily
• Problems
• Requires complete description of the system
• Uncertainty is difficult to handle
• Planning is generally very complex

27
Decision Theory

• Decision theory addresses rational decision
  making under uncertainty
• Uncertainty is represented using probabilities
• Uncertainty due to incomplete observability
• Uncertainty due to nondeterministic action
  outcomes
• Uncertainty due to nondeterministic system
  behavior
• Utility theory is used to achieve rational
  decisions
• Utility is a measure of the expected value of a
  given situation or decision
• Rational decisions are the ones that yield the
  highest expected utility in the current situation

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Modeling Uncertainty

• The current situation can be represented as a
  Belief state, i.e. as a probability distribution
  over the states indicating the likelihood that
  any given state xi is the current state
• (x1, P(x1)), (x2, P(x2)),, (xn, P(xn))
• The probability of a state can be expressed as
  the probability of all state attributes
  P(x)P(a1,a2,,an)
• Uncertainties from incomplete observability and
  nondeterminism can be modeled as conditional
  probabilities
• State transition model
• Observation model P(o x)

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Bayes Rule

• Bayes rule permits to invert cause and effect
  when calculating probabilities
• It is often easier to estimate P(e c)
• Probability of a state given a set of sensor
  readings, P(x o) , can be calculated knowing
  the observation probabilities P(o x)

30
Utility Theory

• Utilities U(A) represent the value of a given
  situation or decision A and model preferences
• The utility function for a particular system is
  not unique
• Only relative differences between utility values
  are important
• U(A) gt U(B) ? A preferred to B
• U(A) U(B) ? agent indifferent to A and B
• Utilities for uncertain situations can be
  calculated as the expected value of the utility
  of all possibilities
• U((x1,P(x1)),,(xn,P(xn))) ?i P(xi) U(xi)

31
Rational Decisions

• The rational decision is the one that leads to
  the highest utility
• Rational decisions in Decision theory requires
• Complete causal model of the environment
• P(xi xj, d)
• Complete knowledge of the observation (sensor)
  model
• P(o xi)
• Knowledge of the Utility function for all states
• U(xi)

32
Markov Decision Processes

• Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) form a
  probabilistic model of all possible system
  behavior
• MDPs can be described by a tuple ltS, A, T, Rgt
  representing states, actions, transition
  probabilities, and reinforcements.
• System has to obey the Markov assumption
• P(xt1xt, dt, xt-1, dt-1, , x0) P(xt1 xt,
  dt)
• Reinforcement represents the instantaneous change
  in utility obtained in a given state
• Models costs and payoffs
• Are generally sparse and delayed

33
Utility Function for MDPs

• In an MDP, the utility of a state under a given
  policy ? can be defined as the expected sum of
  discounted reinforcements
• The optimal utility function U can be computed
  using Value iteration
• Optimal policy (decision strategy) can be
  extracted from the utility function

34
MDP Example

• S (1,1), (1,2), (4, 3)
• A ?,?,?,?
• T P(intended direction) 0.8, P(right angle to
  intended) 0.1
• R 1 at goal, -1 at trap, 0.04 in all other
  states
• ? 1

35
MDP Example
Optimal Policy
Optimal Utilities
36
Markov Decision Processes

• Characteristics
• Complete and Correct
• Advantages
• Takes into account transition uncertainty
• Makes optimal decisions
• Automatically calculates the utility function
• Problems
• Requires complete probabilistic description of
  the system
• Requires complete observability of the state

37
Partially Observable MDPs

• Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes
  (POMDPs) extend MDP by permitting states to be
  only partially observable.
• Systems can be represented by a tuple
• ltS, A, T, R, O, Vgt where ltS, A, T, Rgt is an MDP
  and O, V are mapping observations about the state
  to probabilities of a given state
• O oi is the set of observations
• V V(x, o) P(o x)
• To determine an optimal policy, an optimal
  utility function for the belief states has to be
  computed

38
POMDPs

• Characteristics
• Complete and Correct
• Advantages
• Takes into account all uncertainty
• Makes optimal decisions
• Problems
• Requires complete probabilistic description of
  the system
• Optimal solution is so far intractable (dynamic
  decision networks and approximation techniques
  exist and work for small state spaces)

39
Learning Decisions

• Learning techniques permit decisions to be
  learned from past experience and feedback from
  the inhabitants or the environment.
• Supervised learning
• Requires the desired decision to be specified
  during training
• Reinforcement learning
• Learns by experimentation from scalar reward
  feedback
• Inhabitant feedback (e.g. device interactions)
• Explicit environment feedback (e.g. energy
  consumption)
• Implicit feedback (e.g. prediction of comfort of
  inhabitant)

40
Feedforward Neural Networks

• Neural networks are a supervised learning
  mechanism that can be trained to make decisions
  based on a set of training examples.
• Training for reactive decisions involves the
  presentation of a set of examples (xi, d(xi))
  ,where d(xi) is the desired decision to be made
  in configuration xi.
• Training for goal-based or utility-based
  decisions involves learning a model that maps
  input (xi, d(xi)) to the outcome of the action
  f(xi, d(xi)) and then selecting the decision with
  the best outcome.

41
Example System Regulation in the Adaptive House
DLRM94

• Neural network learns to regulate the lights in
  the house to maintain a given light intensity.
• Learns a network that predicts the light
  intensity if a given set of lights are turned on
• Input
• The current light device levels (7 inputs)
• The current light sensor levels (4 inputs)
• The new light device levels (7 inputs)
• Output
• The new light sensor levels (4 outputs)
• DLRM94 Dodier, R. H., Lukianow, D., Ries, J.,
  Mozer, M. C. (1994).
• A comparison of neural net and conventional
  techniques for lighting control. Applied
  Mathematics and Computer Science, 4, 447-462.

42
Example System Regulation in the Adaptive House
continued

• Decisions are made by comparing the output of the
  network for all possible decisions (i.e.
  combinations of lights to be turned on) with the
  desired light intensity and taking the decision
  that most closely matches it.
• Decision

Set point p
State xi




Decision d
Prediction f(xi, d)
43
Neural Networks

• Characteristics
• Efficient
• Advantages
• Can learn arbitrary decision functions from
  training data
• Generalizes to new situations
• Fast decision making
• Problems
• Requires training data that contains desired
  decision or a goal/objective
• Requires design of sufficient input
  representation

44
Reinforcement Learning

• Reinforcement learning learns an optimal decision
  strategy from trial and error and sparse reward
  feedback.
• On-line method to solve Markov Decision Processes
  (or, with extensions, POMDPs).
• Reward, R, is a signal encoding the instantaneous
  feedback to the system.
• System learns a mapping from states to decisions,
  ?(xi), which optimizes the expected utility.

45
Q-Learning

• Q-learning is the most popular reinforcement
  learning technique for MDPs.
• Learns a utility function for state-action pairs
• Q(x, d)
• Utility U(x) maxa Q(x,d)
• Learns by experimentation.
• Update Q(xi ,d) after each observed transition
  from state xi by comparing the expected utility
  of (xi,d) with the expectation computed after
  observing the actual outcome xj.
• Q(xi,d) Q(xi,d) ? (R(xi) ?maxd Q(xj,d)
  - Q(xi,d))
• Decisions are made to optimize Q-values
• ?(x) argmaxd Q(x,d)

46
Example System Regulation in the Adaptive House
Moz98

• Neural network regulators can control lighting
  and heating to achieve a given set point
• Set point is learned using reinforcement
• Energy usage
• Inhabitant interactions with light switches or
  thermostats

Moz98 Mozer, M. C. The neural network house An
environment that adapts to its inhabitants. In
Proc. AAAI Spring Symposium on Intelligent
Environments (pp. 110-114). Menlo, Park, CA,
1998.
47
Example System MavHome

• Uses Q-learning on a state space including device
  status and the Active LeZi prediction.
• State st at time t
• st (xt, pt)
• Reinforcement includes multiple metrics
• Energy usage
• Number of inhabitant-device interactions
• Decisions are device interactions and an action
  representing the decision not to perform an
  action.
• System operates event-driven, making a decision
  every time an event happens.
• Learner is pre-trained using the Active LeZi
  predictor.

48
Example System MavHome

• Example task getting up in the morning and
  taking a shower.

49
Example System MavHome

• Home learns to automate light activations such as
  to minimize energy usage without increasing the
  number of inhabitant interactions

50
Reinforcement Learning

• Characteristics
• Optimal policies (given enough training)
• Advantages
• Can learn optimal decision strategies without
  explicit training
• Can deal with multiple objectives
• Problems
• Trial and error learning can lead to spurious
  actions leading to potential safety issues
• Requires complete state space representations
• Can be very complex

51
Conclusions

• Decision making is an integral component of
  intelligent environments.
• Automates devices
• Determines information to inhabitants
• Different decision making approaches apply to
  different conditions based on the available
  information.
• Reactive / Goal-based / Utility-based
• Programmed / Learning
• Decision-making approaches can be mixed.
• Many open issues remain
• How to deal with complexity of intelligent
  environments?
• (Hierarchical systems, multi-agent systems, etc)
• How to assure safety and acceptability of
  learning decision makers ?

52
Decision Networks

• Decision Networks combine Bayesian Networks with
  decision theory
• Bayesian network represents probabilistic model
  of the current and the state resulting from a
  given decision in terms of attributes
• Chance nodes represent attributes
• Connections represent conditional effects
• Additional nodes introduce decisions and
  utilities
• Decision node represent possible decisions
• Utility node calculates the utility of the
  decision

53
Decision Network Example
Sprinklers
Lawn wet
Rain
Utility
Lawn growth
Rain forecast
Neighbor watering
Cloudy
Chance Node
Decision Node
Utility Node
54
Decision Networks

• To determine rational decisions the network has
  to be evaluated and utilities computed
• Set evidence variables according to current state
• For each action value of decision node
• Set value of decision node to action
• Use belief-net inference to calculate posterior
  probabilities for parents of utility node
• Calculate utility for action
• Return action with highest utility

55
Decision Network Evaluation

• Evaluation of the network involves computing the
  probabilities for all the chance nodes
• Connections between nodes indicate conditional
  dependence P(ai Parents(ai))
• Values of chance nodes can be computed from the
  values of the parent chance nodes
• Connections to Utility node represent the
  influence the given attribute has on the utility
  of the resulting state

56
Decision Networks

• Characteristics
• Complete and Correct (given complete network)
• Advantages
• Takes into account uncertainty
• Makes optimal decisions
• Relatively compact representation
• Problems
• Requires complete probabilistic description of
  the system
• Requires design of the utility function for all
  states