Expectations, Institutions, and Global Society: Session 1

1
Expectations, Institutions, and Global Society
Session 1

• Comments
• Keisuke Iida
• University of Tokyo

2
IR theory (until 1990s)

• Until the 1990s, International Relations (IR)
  theory was dominated by state-centric theories,
  such as Realism, Neorealism, and Neoliberalism
• Assumption 1 State as a unitary actor
• Assumption 2 (Neo-theories) State as a
  rational actor (single consistent set of
  preferences)

3
IR theory (until 1990s)

• In some cases, this was satisfactory
• e.g. U(nuclear war) lt U(peace)
• In other cases, assumptions were somewhat
  arbitrary
• U (free trade) gt U(protectionism) ?
• For whom?

4
IR theory (1990s)

• In the 1990s, both Security Studies and
  International Political Economy (IPE)
  rediscovered domestic politics
• In Security Studies, democratic peace
• Empirical regularity that democracies do not
  fight each other (Doyle 1983, 1986)
• Audience costs (Fearon 1994) as a possible
  explanation

5
IR theory (1990s)

• In IPE, applications of the Stolper-Samuelson
  Theorem (Rogowski 1989)
• Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
• Owners of richly endowed factors pro-free trade
• Owners of poorly endowed factors protectionist
• Consumers are assumed to be pro-free trade

6
Empirical work (2000s)

• In neither field were these theoretical
  assumptions about the preferences of domestic
  actors empirically verified
• Tomz (2007) Pathbreaking work to verify the
  existence of audience costs
• Tomz (2009) Another step forward in the same
  direction

7
Empirical work (2000s)

• In IPE, survey research to verify the preferences
  of citizens on trade and globalization has become
  popular
• Citizens are more protectionist than theory
  predicts (citizens as consumers)
• Responses are highly subject to framing (Kume
  shows that priming is enough)

8
Tomz (2009)

• Political elites expect citizens to behave in the
  way the audience costs theory predicts
• No consistent differences between democracies and
  autocracies
• However, the latter is only based on a conjecture
  (more corroboration needed)

9
Kume/Naoi (2009)

• Uses a method similar to that used in Tomz (2007)
• Citizens become more pro-free trade if they
  become aware that they are consumers
• Citizens become more welcoming of immigration if
  they become aware that they are consumers