The Development of Improved HeatHealth WatchWarning Systems

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The Development of Improved Heat/Health
Watch-Warning Systems
Human-Heat Products Developed at the Synoptic
Climatology LaboratoryKatrina Frank - WASIS -
Summer 2007
The Development of a Warm Weather Relative
Comfort Index For Environmental Analysis
Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein University of
Miami Dr. Scott C. Sheridan Kent State
University Jill Watts University of Delaware

• Laurence Kalkstein
• Department of Geography and Regional Studies
• University of Miami

Sheridan, Scott C. 2006. A survey of public
perception and response to heat warnings across
four North American cities an evaluation of
municipal effectiveness. International Journal
of Biometeorology
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System Summary

• System development
• Offensive air mass identification
• Algorithm development
• Webpage creation
• System implementation
• Real-time data acquisition
• Decision tree to call advisory/warning

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SSC Air Mass Types
DP Dry Polar (cP) DM Dry Moderate
(Pacific) DT Dry Tropical (cT) MP Moist Polar
(mP) MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning) MT Moist
Tropical (mT) MT Moist Tropical
Plus TR Transition between air masses
Sheridan, S.C., 2002 The redevelopment of a
weather-type classification scheme for North
America. Int. J. Climatology, 22,
51-68. Kalkstein, L.S., C.D. Barthel, J.S. Greene
and M.C. Nichols, 1996. A New Spatial Synoptic
Classification Application to Air Mass Analysis.
Int. J. Climatology, 16, 983-1004.
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Mean Anomalous Mortality byAir Mass Type
Responses vary considerably among cities, which
underscores the need for individual systems for
each urban area
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Development of Offensive Air Mass Algorithms

• Location and air mass-specific
• Cincinnati, MT
• Mort. -19.7 1.87 Day in Seq. 0.88 Tmin
• Milan, MT
• Mort. -3.36 0.67 Day in Seq. 0.36 Tmin
  0.039 Day of
• Season
• Predict actual excess mortality (in deaths) or
  likelihood of excess mortality (in percent)
• Restriction to within-oppressive air mass days
  increases R2 significantly

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Webpage Development
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Systems We are Presently Operating

• USA
• Chicago, IL
• Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
• Dayton/Cincinnati, OH
• Houston, TX
• Jackson/Meridian, MS
• Lake Charles/Alexandria, LA
• Little Rock/Pine Bluff, AR
• Memphis, TN/Tupelo, MS
• Minneapolis, MN
• New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
• Philadelphia, PA
• Phoenix, AZ
• Portland, OR
• San Francisco/San Jose, CA
• Seattle, WA
• St. Louis, MO
• Shreveport/Monroe, LA
• Washington, D.C.

• International
• Bari, Italy
• Bologna, Italy
• Crampton/Caledon/Mississauga, Canada
• Florence, Italy
• Genoa, Italy
• Milano, Italy
• Naples, Italy
• Palermo, Italy
• Rome, Italy
• Shanghai, China
• Torino, Italy
• Toronto, Canada

Only 13 of the U.S. population lives in
municipalities with population 500,000!!!
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Problems with all HHWWS

• Lack of public recognition
• Problem has low profile warnings do not carry
  weight of other natural disaster alerts (silent
  killer)
• Many heat-related deaths go unreported
• Heat deaths will remain a problem
• IPCC projects increases in frequency and duration
  of extreme heat events.
• Increased urbanization
• Population is aging
• Need for awareness, agency collaboration, and
  long term mitigation

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Did you know about the heat warning?
No
Yes
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Did you do anything different because of the
heat warning?
No
Yes
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How dangerous is the heat to you personally?
Not at all
A little
Somewhat
Very
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• The Need for Something More Than a Heat / Health
  Watch-Warning System
• A HHWWS is a synoptically-based warning system
  that estimates heat-related mortality and is used
  for guidance by forecast offices to call
  excessive heat warnings
• It is sophisticated and useful to forecast
  offices, BUT
• Output is unavailable to general public
• The system is a black box to all but NWS
  forecasters
• Output is not helpful to public except on the
  very hottest days
• Cannot be utilized daily by utility companies,
  businesses, and health practitioners who desire a
  daily index of relative weather stress

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• Heat Index (HI)
• An absolute comfort index
• No means to evaluate how the same HI value (eg.
  105F) impacts people across space and time
• Does an HI of 105F mean the same in Duluth and
  Houston?
• If there are 5 consecutive days of 105F, is
  there a different impact between the 1st and 5th
  day?
• Does a day with an HI of 105F in early June have
  the same impact as an identical day in mid-July?
• Will a cloudy 105F day have the same human
  impact as a clear 105F day?

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Advantages of the Heat Stress Index

• Easily understandable by the general public and
  weather decision-makers
• Yields relative weather stress through time and
  space
• Considers much more than temperature and humidity
• The index can be forecast for a 7-day period
• Useful to
• The general public
• Health practitioners
• Utility companies
• Businesses that are weather-driven
• NWS forecasters
• Animal managers (cattle and poultry)
• Climatologists and climate change researchers

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Variables Incorporated in the Heat Stress Index

• Maximum and minimum apparent temperature best
  measure of combined thermal and moisture stress
• Mean cloud cover a 95F day with cloud cover is
  less stressful than the same thermal conditions
  when it is clear
• Cooling degree days evaluates the impact of a
  cooling afternoon thunderstorm. A 95F day with
  no thunderstorm is more stressful than a 100F
  day with a thunderstorm.
• Consecutive day count if the same oppressive
  weather conditions persist for several days, the
  impact of these conditions increases

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Method Develop Distributions
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Method Summation of Variables using July 4,
1999 as an example

• Sum At max At min CDD Cons Day (1-CC
  mean)

UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE
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The Daily Index Value ...

• Expressed as a percentile
• values changed to scale from 1-10 for public
• Represents the proportion of days
• less stressful than the day under review
• Tested at TV stations in Baton Rouge, Louisiana,
  and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE
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Public Response How would you evaluate the Heat
Stress Index?
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Public Response How often do you use the Heat
Stress Index to plan your daily activities?
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Public Response Should the Heat Stress Index
continue to be used?
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Heat Stress Index Website http//climate.geog.udel
.edu/scjs/hsi
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For More Information

• Heat/Health Watch-Warning Systems
• System Development
• http//www.as.miami.edu/geography/climatology/BAMS
  _HHWWS.pdf
• http//www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2366.htm
  
• System Evaluation http//www.as.miami.edu/geograph
  y/climatology/Peel_Questionnaire_Evaluation_03.ppt
  
• Heat Stress Index
• http//www.as.miami.edu/geography/climatology/JAMm
  anuscript_March2004.pdf

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