Do We Need A New Transportation Solution

1
Do We Need A New Transportation Solution?

• Andres Zellweger
• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
• 25 February, 2000

2
The Scene in 2020

• Our society is changing
• Personal time is becoming more valuable
• People are moving away from urban centers
• E-Commerce will predominate
• No indication that travel demand will not grow as
  predicted

3
PEERING INTO THE NEW MILLENIUM

• "What does the 21st century traveler really want
  from the aerospace industry? An integrated,
  hassle free, personal mobility solution"
• James Womack, MIT
• David Fitzpatrick, Deloitte Touche
• (Aviation Week, 1/1/00, p 52)

4
The 2020 System

• Should provide door to door transportation
• At a reasonable cost
• With minimal travel times
• Must be an inter-modal system

5
An Assessment

• Todays aviation and highway systems, with
  projected changes, are inadequate to meet
  door to door needs of 2020
• GRIDLOCK
• and
• HUBLOCK
• Will result in significant increases in travel
  time
• Inter-modal investment is lacking

6
(No Transcript)
7
Alternativesfor Achieving the NeededFlexibility
and Speed

• More commercial air capacity?
• Bullet Trains?
• Mag Lev trains?
• Personal Rapid Transit systems?
• More roads?

8
(No Transcript)
9
SATS Personal Use Concept
10
First Look Accessibility Study Results

• The 20 FL Airports that Provide 100 of
  Commercial Air-Carrier Service are Located Within
  a 30-Minute Ground Access Time to Less than 70
  of the States Population
• Six Regions Have been Identified as Under
  Served which Include about 20 of the
  Population.
• Centrally Placing SATS Airports in these Regions
  would extend Air Travel Service to nearly 90 of
  Floridians.
• Several Non-Commercial Carrier Airports in these
  Regions already have much of the SATS-Desired
  Infrastructure

11
Conclusion

• Increased investment in current NAS is essential
  to meet needs of next decade
• Investments must start to provide flexibility and
  capacity for long term demand

12
A Parting Thought

• (Jack Olcott, NBAA at the 1999 Annual TRB
  Meeting)
• The wars of the 21st century
• -Will not be military
• - They will be economic
• A strong transportation infrastructure is
  essential for a sound economy!

13
Backups
14
First Look Study Results

• User Delays Random and Minor No Significant
  Increase in Delays at Orlando Executive Airport
  Due to SATS
• ATC Capacity Only Minor-Moderate Impacts in St.
  Johns Arrival Sector that Serves MCO, and in the
  North Satellite Departure Sector - Only Under Max
  SATS Loading (20 of Total Traffic)
• ATC Workload With the Exception of the St.
  Johns Sector, There is Little Increase in the
  Average or Maximum Number of Conflicts

15
SATS Accessibility

• Regional Benefits/Accessibility Improvements
• Non-Hub Emplanement Level
• Proximity to Ground Transportation
• Lighted, Paved, 3500 Ft. Runway
• EGPS, AWOS/ASOS
• Amenable Politics

SATS Partitions
16
30-Minute Iso-Access Contours

• Via POV or Public Transportation
• Primary Secondary Roads

17
First Look Study Results

• However
• Proximity to a Commercial Carrier Airport is Not
  Synonymous with Service Adequacy
• Many of the Floridians Wishing to Travel
  Efficiently Live Near one of the Four Major
  Airports and Routinely Suffer Delays and
  Congestion
• Lack of Service Does Not Necessarily Equate to
  Unsatisfied Demand
• Some Municipalities Oppose Increased Aviation
  Operations
• So, Additional Study Must be Accomplished to
  Identify Viable Florida SATS Airport Candidates

18
SATS Functional Requirements
SATS Functions Areas End-State Performance

• ATC/ATM
• Communications
• Navigation
• Surveillance
• Weather
• Landing Facilities

• Self-separation capability onboard the aircraft
  results from exchange of aircraft position and
  flight plan information along preferred flight
  paths.
• Voice will continue and supplement datalink.
  Communications will be primarily digital to the
  surface.
• Near all-weather precise guidance to any runway
  end for any landing facility.
• Situational awareness of all aircraft, landing
  facility surface movement, and weather in all
  phases of flight
• Datalink display of real-time weather
  information and forecasts.
• Integrated network of landing facilities.
• Exchange local aviation and commercial info.
• Create social and economic drivers for growth.

19
Executive Travel ScenarioFractional Ownership
Two SATS trips per month. MLB to TLH to BFM to
DNL to MLB. Saves 15.5 hours over Air
Carrier. Air Carrier must connect in ATL for each
leg, and connects only to MOB AGS.
20
Scenario Assumptions

• SATS Aircraft
• 700 nm range (805.57 statute miles)
• 250 kts (287.69 statute miles/hour)
• 150 kts in terminal area
• 30 minutes from home/office to SATS airport
• 30 minutes for enplanement and takeoff
• 15 minutes to deplane and leave airport
• Direct Org/Dest flight segments derived from
  www.landings.com
• Transit time and speed includes all travel modes
  and connections

21
Scenario Assumptions (continued)

• Automobile
• 25 mph in city
• 30 mph residential
• 50 mph rural highway
• 60 mph interstate highway
• 15 minute break for fuel after 3 hours driving
• 1 hour meal break
• Auto route profile using www.mapquest.com
• Transit time and speed includes fuel, meals and
  overnight

22
Scenario Assumptions (continued)

• Commercial Air Carrier
• 45 minute drive to/from airport
• 30 minutes from long-term parking to gate
• 45 minutes from gate to aircraft boarding
• 45 minutes from gate arrival to long-term parking
• 30 minutes to/from gate for rental car check-in/
  drop-off
• 45 minutes if rental agency is off-airport
• OAG schedule for flight segments and distances
• Flight speeds were adjusted to fit time schedules
• Transit times and speeds include all travel
  modes, connections, and overnight stays

23
SATS Architecture Overview