Measuring Development Outcomes in Low Income Countries

1
Measuring Development Outcomes in Low Income
Countries

• Conference on Improving Statistics
• for Measuring Development Outcomes
• June 4-5, 2003
• Ellen Goldstein
• Operations Policy and Country Services
• World Bank

2
Managing for Results Key Questions

• What do we mean by results?
• Sustained improvement in development outcomes at
  the country level (e.g., families lifted out of
  poverty).
• How do we get better results?
• Improve results by increasing management
  attention to them
• in countrieswhere results are achieved.
• within the Bankto be a more relevant and
  effective agency.
• across agenciesto scale up impact via
  collaborative action.

3
IDA Results Measurement System What is it?

• IDA13 arrangement calls for an enhanced
  International Development Association (IDA)
  results measurement system as part of a broader,
  Bank-wide results agenda. The IDA system is
  expected to
• reflect priorities of Poverty Reduction
  Strategies.
• link clearly to MDG framework.
• allow aggregation across IDA countries.
• assess contribution of IDA to results.

4
IDA Results Measurement System What is it?

• Purpose is to focus IDA donors and borrowers
  attention on the development effectiveness of IDA
  support, through assessment of
• aggregate development outcomes in IDA countries
• IDAs contribution to these outcomes through
  results-based country assistance strategies.
• Does not influence country-specific IDA
  allocations (based on country performance rating
  formula).

5
Guiding Principles in Selecting Aggregate
Outcome Indicators

• Consistency with country priorities as
  articulated in national poverty reduction
  strategies.
• Alignment with MDG indicators and other
  international monitoring efforts.
• Relevance to IDAs activities in borrowing
  countries.
• Development of monitoring primarily through
  national statistical systems.

6
Monitoring Country Outcomes Proposed Indicators

• Population below 1/day poverty line
• Underweight children, under 5
• Child Mortality, under 5
• Measles immunization rate
• HIV prevalence of pregnant women,
• 15-24

• Births attended by skilled personnel
• Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary
  school
• Primary school completion rate
• Sustainable access to improved water sources
• Fixed lines and cell phones per 1,000

• Formal cost required for business start-up
• Time required for business start-up
• Public expenditure management
• Growth of value-added in agriculture
• Growth of GDP per capita

To be adapted as knowledge base improves
7
Consistency of Proposed Indicators

• With PRSPs. Coverage of key PRSP priorities,
  taking into account diversity of indicators.
• With MDGs. 10 of 15 are MDG indicators, others
  are complementary, reflecting activities that
  accelerate growth to reduce poverty.
• With other international monitoring. Incorporates
  9 of 10 indicators suggested by European
  Commission for monitoring development
  effectiveness.
• With interim system. Reflects IDAs support for
  activities that accelerate growth (infrastructure
  development, private sector development, and
  public sector management) in order to reduce
  poverty.

8
Monitoring Country Outcomes Data Issues

• Less than half of IDA countries have data for all
  indicators.
• In some cases, most recent data are six or seven
  years old.
• For some indicators, only half the IDA countries
  (or less) can calculate a trend line in the
  1990s based on two data points
• 43 can calculate underweight children under five
• 56 can calculate primary school completion rates
• 44 can calculate proportion of population with
  access to an improved water source
• Assessing change during a three year PRS or IDA
  cycle is imperfect and sometimes impossible.

9
Monitoring of Country Outcomes Reporting Issues

• Diversity of PRSP indicators reflects
  country-specific prioritiesbut also lack of
  international norms and/or lack of data in some
  areas.
• 60 of PRSPs have childhood nutrition as a
  priority but only 35 use underweight children
  indicator.
• All PRSPs have safe motherhood as a priority but
  only 48 use attended births indicator (none use
  maternal mortality).
• Highest diversity where norms are still being
  defined private sector development, rural
  development, infrastructure and public sector
  management.

10
Borrowing Countries Perceptions of IDA Results
Measurement System

• PRS process has enhanced country ownership,
  stakeholder participation and donor alignment.
• Tracking IDA indicators would not influence PRS
  priorities or alter strategic directions.
• Proposed indicators are largely consistent with
  PRS priorities (suggestions on transport, private
  sector).
• they are very relevant because they tend to
  answer critical questions about delivering
  results to the people.
• Measuring and monitoring across countries was
  encouraged
• It is useful to measure outcomes across
  countries in similar circumstances to learn from
  others and to see what they are doing in their
  strategies.

11
Borrowing Countries Perceptions (cont.)

• Capacity to measure and monitor PRS results at
  the country level needs strengthening.
• Countries beset by multiple, fragmentary and
  duplicative international reporting requirements.
• Better harmonization of international results
  reporting requirements among agencies is
  essential.
• Plea for coordinated support to build capacity of
  national statistical institutions and systems.
• Our enemy is this endeavor is to seek
  perfection. We need flexibility, pragmatism and
  realism.

12
Key Issues for Development Agencies

• Recognize that managing for results begins at the
  country level and requires statistical demand
  from policy makers.
• Harmonize international results reporting around
  a manageable set of outcome indicators.
• Identify data gaps and reporting inefficiencies
  related to this core set.
• Develop a time-bound and costed global action
  plan to build sustainable institutional capacity
  to generate core indicators.
• Foster political buy-in within agencies on global
  collaboration to improve statistics for managing
  for results.