Modeling Carrying Capacity: Presentation of Conceptual Diagram

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Modeling Carrying CapacityPresentation of
Conceptual Diagram

• WGAR
• 20 November 2008
• Carrie Byron
• carrriebyron_at_mail.uri.edu

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Policy Regulators
Working Group
Ecologists Modelers
Ecopath
Ecological C. C.
Social C. C.
Long-term Plan
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Ecopath
www.ecopath.org

• Snapshot in time
• Food-web based
• Mass balance model

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Carrying Capacity
65 t km2 yr-1
310 t km2 yr-1
Ecological
Production
www.westpacmussels.com
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Limit aquaculture to 5 percent of R.I. waters,
experts say
Providence Journal Sunday, March 2, 2008
Journal file photo / Bill Murphy
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Procedure

• Identify Groups
• Estimate Parameters
• Estimate Confidence Intervals
• Balance Equations

Pfeiffer-Herbert 2007 Christensen Walters 2004
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Monaco Ulanowicz 1997
Monaco Ulanowicz 1997
Cultured Oysters
Benthic Suspension Feeders
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Procedure

• Identify Groups
• Estimate Parameters
• Estimate Confidence Intervals
• Balance Equations

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
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• .
• .
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• .
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• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• .
• .
• .
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• .
• .
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• Net migration rate into pond
• .
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• Net migration rate into pond
• Biomass accumulation rate
• .
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• Net migration rate into pond
• Biomass accumulation rate
• Food assimilation rate
• .

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• Net migration rate into pond
• Biomass accumulation rate
• Food assimilation rate
• Diet composition

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2. Parameters

• Biomass
• Production/biomass ratio
• Consumption/biomass ratio
• Ecotrophic efficiency
• Catch rate
• Net migration rate into pond
• Biomass accumulation rate
• Food assimilation rate
• Diet composition

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Pond Data

• Peer Review Literature
• Macro-algae
• Eelgrass
• Productivity
• Physical
• Flushing rates

www.pubs.usgs.gov www.horta.uac.pt www.cybercolloi
ds.net www.solpugid.com/cabiota/ulva_lobata.jpg
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Pond Data

• DEM
• Larval fish Quonnie, Pt. Judith, Ninigret,
  Winnapaug
• Finfish Quonnie, Pt. Judith Potters
• Shellfish RI aquaculture, Narr Bay Quohogs
• Pond Watchers
• Primary Productivity
• RI South Shore Sea Grant Project
• Physical
• MapCoast
• Habitat

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Narragansett Bay Data

• DEM
• Fish Trawl
• Juvenile Fish Seine
• Quohog
• GSO
• Fish Trawl (crabs)
• Primary Productivity
• NOAA
• Primary Productivity

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Procedure

• Identify Groups
• Estimate Parameters
• Estimate Confidence Intervals
• Balance Equations

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Procedure

• Identify Groups
• Estimate Parameters
• Estimate Confidence Intervals
• Balance Equations

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4. Balance Equations

• Production
• predation
• fishery
• other mortality
• biomass accum.
• net migration

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4. Balance Equations

• Production
• predation
• fishery
• other mortality
• biomass accum.
• net migration

• Consumption production
• unassimilated food
• respiration

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Calculate Carrying Capacity
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Modelers will present the..

• conceptual food-web diagram
• sources of data used for parameter inputs to the
  model
• balanced and validated model
• ecological carrying capacity

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Questions

• Point of clarification
• Discussion on conceptual diagram
• Other comments/concerns

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