Slovak emission projections related to NEC Directive

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Slovak emission projections related to NEC
Directive

• Stanislava Nebusová
• Slovenský hydrometeorologický ústav, Bratislava

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Topics

• Why we do projections?
• Input data
• Projections
• Results
• Comparison projections and inventory in 2005
• Summary
• Future

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Why we do projections ?

• European
• Directive 2001/81/ES on national emission
  ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants
• Convention LRTAP
• Slovakian
• Regulation 203/2008 of MP SR which varies
  regulation 131/2006 of MP SR which is
  stipulating national emission ceiling and total
  quotas amount of pollutants
• National programme of decreasing basic pollutants
  to year 2010 under art. 6 of directive 2001/81/ES

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Input data
National Emission Information System (NEIS)
SHMU Energy, Industry
Inventory
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU)
Transport, NM VOC, PM
National experts for other sectors
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Projections (1)

• Bottom-up methodology for energy sector using
  model MESSAGE - is optimization model of an
  objective function under a set of constraints
  that define the feasible region containing all
  possible solutions of the problem.
• For other sectors are projections estimates as
  national expert judgment

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Projections (2)

• Biggest polluters own projections
• MESSAGE ETS - other polluters (NACE code,
  NFR code)
• non ETS (NACE code, NFR code)
• After optimization run in MESSAGE, results are
  exported to Excel file and aggregated to standard
  format for CLRTAP

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Projections (2.1)

• Biggest polluters in SR, which have their own
  projections and every year consultation
• Slovenské elektrárne - energy,
• US Steel metal production,
• Slovnaft motor fuels,
• Holcim cement production,
• Duslo ala industry fertilizers, special
  products of organic and inorganic chemistry, etc.

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Projections (2.2)

• Disadvantages
• Model try find the minimal cost of whole
  followed system. It should not simulate the
  future development in open liberalized energy
  market.

• Advantages
• Very flexible
• No limitation on the scale
• Possibility of load curve for different demand
• - electricity
• - district heat, etc.
• Possibility to modeling storage of energy
• Possibility of different constrain implementation
  
• - emission quotas
• - primary energy supply limitation
• - investment limitation
• Possibility of emission trading simulation

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Results (1)
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Results (2)
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Results (3)
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Results (4)
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Results (5)
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Comparison projections and inventory in 2005
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Summary

• National emission ceiling for year 2010 are
  feasible to achieve
• Proposed national emission ceiling for year 2020
  is not easily to fulfil without additional PAMs
• Model MESSAGE is very good model for projections
  in energy sector

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Future

• Implement other models for non energy sectors
• Transport
• Agriculture
• LULUCF
• Waste
• We are open to help us with these sectoral models

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Thank you for your attention.
Stanislava.nebusova_at_shmu.sk