The Demography of the CCCs

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The Demography of the CCCs

• Patrick Perry
• Vice Chancellor of Technology, Research,
  Information Systems, CCCCO

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Data Preamble

• Information is the currency of democracy.
  -Thomas Jefferson
• Get your facts first, then you can distort them
  as you please. -Mark Twain
• In the twenty-first century, whoever controls
  the screen controls consciousness, information
  and thought. -Timothy Leary

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Students, Students, Everywhere
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Participation Rates

• (per 100k 18-44 year-olds)

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Participation (and Fees)
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Enrollment Status
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Annual Units Attempted
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Demography Gender

• 55 Female, 45 Male
• Ratio hasnt changed /- 1 in 15 years

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Demography Age
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Demography Ethnicity/Race
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Participation Rates

• Participation Rates (ARCC)
• Rate per 1,000 CA population, 0-64 years of age
• 2004-2005 66.0
• 2005-2006 66.2
• 2006-2007 67.4

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Participation Rates Age
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Participation Rates Eth
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Where Are We Headed?
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Where Are We Headed?
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Demography Cultural

• The drop in population 2010-2020 is defined as
  offspring of Generation X
• Gen X influence defined the 80s-early 90s
  culture
• Overeducated and underemployed take the money
  and run
• Highly cynical and skeptical
• Burdened by the societal debt of boomers
• Extremely entrepreneurial (tech internet)

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Gen X Parents

• More hands-on than Baby Boomer parents
• Value higher education as more important to
  success than Boomer parents
• Parental involvement in college selection is high

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Demography of Success

• It is not so important who starts the game but
  who finishes it. John Wooden

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Demography of Success

• Does the group of students starting out or
  already in look like the students leaving with
  various outcomes?
• Demography indemography out
• parity.

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Demography of Process
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Demography of Persistence
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Demography of AA/AS/Cert
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Demography of Transfer
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Contemplating Where We Are

• Depression loses its power when fresh vision
  pierces the darkness. Peter Sinclair
• For most folks, no news is good news for the
  press, good news is not news. Anon.

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Ten Years Ago

• Ten Years Ago
• We served 2.44 million students
• 36 were underrepresented (AfrAm, Hisp/Latino,
  Filipino, Native Amer, Pac Isl)
• Today
• We serve 2.62 million students
• 42 are underrepresented (6)
• Headcount has grown only 7
• Not muchand one might expect similar outcome
  parity

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However...Transfer

• Ten Years Ago
• CSU Transfers 44,943UC 10,177
• CSU Underrepresented 28...UC 20 (8)
• Today
• CSU Transfers 54,379, UC 13,874
• CSU Underrepresented 34...UC 26 (8)
• 24 increase in transfer volume and achievement
  gap closing

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HoweverDegrees Certificates

• Ten Years Ago
• 89,269 AA/AS/Cert
• 33 underrepresented (compared to 36 total pop)
• Parity/Achievement Gap -3
• Today
• 104,720 AA/AS/Cert
• 40 underrepresented (compared to 42 total pop)
• Parity/Achievement Gap -2
• 17.3 increase in AA/AS/Cert volume and
  achievement gap closing

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HoweverBasic Skills

• Ten Years Ago
• 19 of all students attempted at least one basic
  skills course in a year
• Today
• 23 do.
• Today, we serve an additional 118,720 basic
  skills students a yearan increase of 26.

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HoweverBOG Waivers

• Ten Years Ago
• 18 of students got a BOG waiver.
• Today
• 26 do.
• Today, we serve an extra 220,000 students with
  BOG waivers, an increase of 49.

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On Change

• To change and to change for the better are two
  different things. German proverb
• Decisions of the head rather than the heart are
  the ones we come to regret. -Patricia
  Weenolsen

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It is Said

• The time for revolutionary change is now.
• Youve actually been in the middle of itit
  started ten years ago.
• With the same funding and a more needy
  population, we have increased productivity and
  outcomes.

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Scribbled on a Bar Napkinby a Gen Xer

• The success rate of FT students is 45
• The success rate of PT students is 12
• Therefore, we need more FT students

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Scribbled on a Bar Napkin

• The State gives us 1.1 million FTES
• If everyone were full-time, wed serve 1.1
  million students
• Wed produce (1,100,000 x .45)495,000 outcomes
• If everyone took 3 units, wed serve 4.4 million
  students
• Wed produce (4,400,000 x .12)528,000 outcomes
• Wed also serve 3.3 million others, all of whom
  would gain something just from the exposure

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Scribbled on a Bar Napkin

• The Course Success Rate of Students who start a
  class from Week 1 is 70.
• The Course Success Rate of Students who start
  later is 50.
• Therefore, we shouldnt allow students into a
  class after the start date

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Scribbled on a Bar Napkin

• If a class starts with 30 students
• 10 of them drop, and none are allowed back in
• (20 .7) 14 pass the course.
• Course Success Rate 70.
• If after 10 drop, you allow 6 back in
• (20 .7) (6 .5) 17 pass the course.
• Course Success Rate 65.

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Remain Skeptically Optimistic

• Modest doubt is the beacon of the wise.
  -Shakespeare
• If they can make penicillin out of moldy bread,
  they can sure make something out of you.
  Muhammed Ali