Denver World Oil Conference The Peak Oil Context

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Denver World Oil ConferenceThe Peak Oil Context
PETRIE PARKMAN Co.
November 11, 2005
Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman CEO Petrie
Parkman Co.
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The challenge of Peak Oil

• To meet a challenge
• You first have to recognise you face a challenge
• I aim to show you that
• Peak Oil is real and imminent
• That time is short
• That adaptation will not be easy

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Current World Production in Serious Decline
(Millions b/d)
-10.1
-19.2
-28.9
Conclusion Depletion Matters
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Reality and Illusion
Illusion
Reality
Inflexion due to falling Discovery
Actual
As Reported
5
2
6
4
7
3
8
9
9
Draw works
Tongs
Slips
Rotary Chain
Rotary Table
The fundamentals of rotary drilling are the same
as 100 years ago.
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Shedding Light on Saudi Arabias Oil

• 5 super giant oilfields made up 90 of oil
  output.
• 3 giant oilfields made up 8.
• These oilfields are between 40 and 60 years old.
• All are reaching point of decline.
• Half of proven reserves are questionable.
• Remaining oil is harder to produce.

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Global Crude Reserves
Billions of barrels of oil
Source Oil Gas Journal
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(No Transcript)
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Projected Oil Sands Production
Millions of barrels per day
5 million
SourceCAPP, RIWG, Alberta Chamber of Resources
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Reserves(2)
70
60
50
40
of World
30
20
10
0
North America
Middle East
Emerging Asia

• EIA/IEA Outlook 2005, Table A.4
• BP Statistical Review World Energy, June 2005

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The Real Discovery Trend
Past discovery according to ExxonMobil
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Denver World Oil ConferenceThe Peak Oil Context
PETRIE PARKMAN Co.
November 11, 2005
Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman CEO Petrie
Parkman Co.