USING CME OBSERVATIONS FOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM FORECASTING

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USING CME OBSERVATIONS FOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM
FORECASTING
SOLI INVICTO

• Andrei Zhukov

Solar Influences Data analysis Center, Royal
Observatory of Belgium
Also at Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear
Physics, Moscow State University, Russia
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CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES)
SOHO/LASCO
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CMES AND GEOMAGNETIC STORMS

• To be geoeffective, the CME-associated
  disturbance should
• 1) arrive to the Earth
• 2) have a suitable magnetic field
  configuration IMF Bz component should
  be negative (southward), strong enough
  and long-lasting.

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HALO CMES CAN BE EARTH-DIRECTED
SOHO/LASCO
partial halo angular width gt 120
full halos angular width 360
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HALO CMES CAN BE EARTH-DIRECTED
SOHO/LASCO
partial halo angular width gt 120
full halos angular width 360
Coronagraphic observations cannot discriminate
between frontside and backside CMEs. gt Need for
the solar disc observations.
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HALO CMES CAN BE EARTH-DIRECTED
SOHO/LASCO
partial halo angular width gt 120
full halos angular width 360
Coronagraphic observations cannot discriminate
between frontside and backside CMEs. gt Need for
the solar disc observations.
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CME SIGNATURES IN EUV
Dimmings (including TCHs)
Post-eruption arcade
EIT wave
Limb signatures opening of loops, plasmoid
lifting etc.
Erupting prominence (filament)
SOHO/EIT 195 Å
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CAN EIT BE USED TO DETECT CME SOURCE REGIONS?

• CME Watch 195 (half resolution) 0000 March 9,
  2001 2400 March 19, 2001
• 57 catalogued1 CMEs
• 24 CMEs have no or doubtful EIT counterparts
  backsided?
• 33 CMEs have signatures in EIT

1CUA/NASA/NRL CME catalogue http//cdaw.gsfc.nas
a.gov/CME_list/index.html
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A HALO CME FRONTSIDE OR BACKSIDE?
SOHO/LASCO C2 (Movie G. Lawrence)
(May 12, 1997)
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A HALO CME FRONTSIDE OR BACKSIDE?
SOHO/LASCO C2 (Movie G. Lawrence)
(May 12, 1997)
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A HALO CME FRONTSIDE!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
May 12, 1997 filament eruption and a C1.3 flare
close to the solar disc center EIT wave
dimming. (Thompson et al. 1998 Plunkett et al.
1998 Webb et al. 2000)
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A HALO CME FRONTSIDE!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
Running difference movie
(May 12, 1997)
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PREDICTING THE CME ARRIVAL TIME
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ARRIVAL OF A FRONTSIDE HALO CME
WIND IMP-8
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LIMB HALO CMES MAY LEAD TO GEOEFFECTIVE
POST-SHOCK SHEATHS!

• Full halo CME 0354 UT, October 21, 2003.
• Although the source region of this CME is located
  behind the East limb, the CME appeared as a halo
  due to the propagating shock (?) wave (?).

SOHO/LASCO C3
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LIMB HALO CMES MAY LEAD TO GEOEFFECTIVE
POST-SHOCK SHEATHS!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
(October 21, 2003)
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LIMB HALO CMES MAY LEAD TO GEOEFFECTIVE
POST-SHOCK SHEATHS!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
Running difference movie
(October 21, 2003)
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LIMB HALO CMES MAY LEAD TO GEOEFFECTIVE
POST-SHOCK SHEATHS!
ACE
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CME-DRIVEN SHOCK WAVES
A CME-driven shock has larger angular extent than
the CME itself!
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FULL HALO CME WITH A SOURCE REGION CLOSE TO THE
DISC CENTER
(September 12, 2000)
SOHO/LASCO C2 (Movie G. Lawrence)
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FULL HALO CME WITH A SOURCE REGION CLOSE TO THE
DISC CENTER
(September 12, 2000)
SOHO/LASCO C2 (Movie G. Lawrence)
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FULL HALO CME WITH A SOURCE REGION CLOSE TO THE
DISC CENTER
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
September 12, 2000 filament eruption,
post-eruption arcade, dimmings close to the solar
disc center.
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BUT ONLY THE CME-DRIVEN SHOCK ARRIVED TO THE
EARTH
Schwenn et al. (2005) 7 of all frontside full
halo CMEs miss the Earth.
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CMES AND GEOMAGNETIC STORMS

• To be geoeffective, the CME-associated
  disturbance should
• 1) arrive to the Earth
• 2) have a suitable magnetic field
  configuration IMF Bz component should
  be negative (southward), strong enough
  and long-lasting.

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FULL HALO CME ON FEBRUARY 17, 2000
SOHO/LASCO C2
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FULL HALO CME ON FEBRUARY 17, 2000
SOHO/LASCO C2
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FULL HALO CME ON FEBRUARY 17, 2000 FRONTSIDED!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å) 1.5 MK plasma
Running difference movie
(February 17, 2000)
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(No Transcript)
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FLUX ROPE ORIENTATION WNE!
ACE
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FLUX ROPE ORIENTATION WNE!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
SOHO/MDI
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FLUX ROPE ORIENTATION!
SOHO/EIT Fe XII bandpass (195 Å)
A way to predict the orientation of the magnetic
field in MCs on the base of solar
observations? (Marubashi 1986, Bothmer Schwenn
1994, Rust 1994, Yurchyshyn et al. 2001,
McAllister et al. 2001)
SOHO/MDI
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FULL HALO CME ON NOVEMBER 7, 2004
First appearance in the LASCO C2 field of view
1706 UT plane of the sky speed 1770
km/s SOHO/LASCO C2 running difference (movie
G. Stenborg)
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FULL HALO CME ON NOVEMBER 7, 2004
First appearance in the LASCO C2 field of view
1706 UT plane of the sky speed 1770
km/s SOHO/LASCO C2 running difference (movie
G. Stenborg)
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CORONAL DIMMINGS AND AN EIT WAVE ON NOVEMBER 7
SOHO/EIT Fe XII (195 Å) running difference
(Zhukov et al. 2005)
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POST-ERUPTION ARCADE AND ERUPTING FILAMENT ON
NOVEMBER 7
Associated with the X2.0 flare peaking at 1606
UT (October revolution flare) SOHO/EIT Fe
XII (195 Å)
(Zhukov et al. 2005)
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STORM OF NOVEMBER 9 10, 2004
(Zhukov et al. 2005)
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TWO ERUPTING NEUTRAL LINES
SEN
ENW
Ha (Kanzelhöhe Solar Obsrevatory)
SOHO/EIT SOHO/MDI
In situ November 10 WSE flux rope
(Zhukov et al. 2005)
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CORRESPONDENCE OF IP AND SOLAR FLUX ROPE
ORIENTATIONS
The errorbars are large, i.e. inferring the solar
erupting flux rope orientation is often
ambiguous. Even if this ambiguity is taken into
account, the orientations of the inferred and
observed flux ropes are consistent only in two
cases of severe storms out of five.
q2 gt 0
W
E
q1 lt 0
(Zhukov et al. 2005)
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WRITHING OF PROMINENCES DURING ERUPTIONS
Weak orientation change Strong orientation
change
SOHO/EIT He II (304 Å)
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SUMMARY

• LASCO and EIT are capable to identify reliably
  the most of Earth-directed CMEs.
• However we still cannot predict the exact
  onset time of CMEs.
• We can have a fair estimate of the arrival time
  of an interplanetary disturbance.
• However the geometry of eruptions is not
  clear. What part of a halo CME will come to the
  Earth (if any)? The situation is worse for
  partial halos and multiple CMEs.
• We may have a reasonable guess about the
  orientation of the erupting flux rope.
• However the correspondence of solar and IP
  flux ropes is not always good, especially for
  the strongest events.
• We still cannot predict reliably the ICME
  structure, especially the sign, amplitude and
  duration of the Bz.
• For non-MC or multiple (interacting) ICMEs the
  situation is particularly problematic.

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STEREO(SOLAR-TERRESTRIALRELATIONS OBSEVATORY)

• SECCHI (Sun Earth Connection Coronal and
  Heliospheric Investigation) EUVI, COR1, COR2, HI
• SWAVES (STEREO/WAVES)
• IMPACT (In situ Measurements of PArticles
  and CME Transients)
• PLASTIC (PLAsma and SupraThermal Ion and
  Composition)

LAUNCH April May 2006
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SECCHI SCIENCE OVERVIEW
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Thank you for your attention!
Special thanks A. V. Dmitriev, M. Vandas, G.
Lawrence, G. Stenborg, V. Bothmer, I. S.
Veselovsky.