National Public Radio

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National Public Radio
July 31, 2002
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METHODOLOGY
The reported results on public attitudes come
from a national survey conducted by Public
Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research for National Public Radio (NPR) July
23-25, 2002. The firms, together with NPR,
developed questions to inform a news segment for
Morning Edition. This is our fifth survey in the
NPR series. The dates of the earlier surveys
were March 4-7, March 19-25, April 28-30 and June
18-24, 2002. With a view to the upcoming
elections, the surveys were conducted with likely
voters. All participants were registered voters,
voted in the 2000 presidential election and
indicated they were almost certain or certain
to vote in 2002. The sample of potential
respondents was generated by random digit dial
methodology. The sample size for this survey was
721 registered likely voters with a margin of
error of 3.65. This summary also references
other national surveys of likely voters conducted
by Public Opinion Strategies and other news
organizations.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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What a difference a month makes

• Since our last track for NPR on June 18-24, 2002,
  the political landscape has shifted sharply
• A majority of likely voters (56) now say the
  county has seriously gotten off on the wrong
  track, up sharply from the 39 who said wrong
  track a month ago. In June, a plurality of
  Americans said the country was headed in the
  right direction (49 right direction/39 wrong
  track), while today confidence about the
  direction of the country has significantly
  eroded (36 right direction/56 wrong track).
• President Bushs job approval continues to be
  strong by any historic standard (66 approve/31
  disapprove), but disapproval of the way he is
  handling his presidency crossed 30 for the
  first time since the attack on September 11th.
  President Bushs strong approval ratings
  slipped below 40 (its now at 38 strong
  approve) and his strong disapprove rating
  bumped up from 13 to 19.

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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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What a difference a month makes

• Since our last track for NPR on June 18-24, 2002,
  the political landscape has shifted sharply
• The dramatic shift on the right direction/wrong
  track question is reshaping other key numbers
  that more directly impact attitudes about
  Congress and congressional incumbents. In just
  the last three weeks, congressional approval
  scores dropped from 56 approve/31 disapprove
  (25) to 52 approve/40 disapprove (12).
  Significantly, in April, a majority of voters
  said their own Member of Congress had performed
  the job well enough to deserve re-election (52
  re-elect incumbent/34 new person). However,
  the congressional re-elect has eroded to 42
  re-elect/38 new person in mid-July to an even
  slightly softer 41 re- elect/42 new person on
  this NPR survey.

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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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What a difference a month makes
The sharply higher wrong track response, the
slight softening in the presidents standing, and
most importantly, higher disapproval of Congress
and a significant drop in the congressional
re-elect for their own Member of Congress all
portend a more volatile election climate than
imagined only a month ago.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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A majority of Americans now say the country is
off on the wrong track.
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Women and likely voters over 65 years old are
among the most negative sub-groups about the
direction of the country.
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Of course, theres been a shift among every
sub-group, but the drop in confidence in the
country is the most dramatic among Democrats.
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The percentage of people saying wrong track has
increased the most in the past two months among
the following sub-groups
39 Wrong Track in May/56 Wrong Track in July
17 Difference score
Previous Wrong Track number taken from POS
National May 28-30, 2002 at 39
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The direct relationship between attitudes about
right direction/wrong track and other key
tracking numbers is clear.
Bush job approval by Right
Generic vote by Right
Direction/Wrong Track
Direction/Wrong Track
93
-8
45
-33
96
65
58
52
44
25
20
3
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Right Direction
Wrong Track
(36)
(56)
(36)
(56)
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
Total Republican
Total Democrat
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As the percentage of Americans saying the country
is headed off on the wrong track increases, so
too does self-described interest in the election.
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President Bushs job approval rating is modestly
lower on this survey.
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President Bushs job approval rating among
Republicans is essentially unchanged since June,
his approval rating among Independents continues
to be strong, but his approval rating among
Democrats is beginning to erode.
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For the second NPR survey in a row, the Democrats
have an edge on the generic vote within the
margin of error.
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Its interesting that Republican support on the
generic ballot increases by age among men, while
it decreases by age among women.
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As seniors comprise more than one out of five
voters in an off-year election, its important to
note the sharp shift in their responses to some
key tracking questions.
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One important change has been the sharp shift
among non-college women.
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Republican strength on the generic ballot
continues to be driven by support among White men.
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The halo effect of September 11th has
essentially vanished and attitudes about Congress
are beginning to mirror the countrys overall
more negative mood.
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And, as wrong track pops and congressional
disapproval is on the rise, the important
incumbent re-elect score has also dropped. We
have found this question an excellent measure of
potential volatility in congressional campaigns.
And, do you think Your Member of Congress has
performed the job well enough to deserve
re-election, or do you think its time to give a
new person a chance to do a better job?
Data from CBS/NY Times polls. Questions asks,
Representative in Congress instead of Member
of Congress
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And, the likelihood of a more volatile election
cycle can also be seen as among the 14 of likely
voters undecided on the congressional generic
ballot, confidence about the direction of the
country and the incumbent re-elect score are
lower.
By Right Direction/Wrong Track
By Congressional Re-elect
-20
-30
-1
-21
57
56
44
42
41
36
27
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All Voters
"Undecided"
All Voters
"Undecided"
Generic Ballot
Generic Ballot
Re-elect
New Person
Right Direction
Wrong Track
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We continue to see interesting differences when
voters are asked about what issues should be the
top priority for Congress and the President
versus which issues are most important to you in
deciding how to vote for a candidate for
Congress. The concern about terrorism or
corporate accountability/abuse is lower when it
is asked as an issue people plan to use to
determine how they will vote for Congress.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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The concern about terrorism and corporate
accountability score higher when asked about
which issues should be a top priority.
And, which ONE of the following issues do you
believe should be the top priority for Congress
and the President?
POS National July 9-14, 2002
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Than when asked about which issues people will
use to cast their vote for Congress.
And, which ONE of the following issue areas
would be MOST important to you in deciding how to
vote for a candidate for Congress?
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On this survey, when voters were asked what issue
was most important to them in deciding how to
vote for Congress, for the first time, we added
the phrase corporate abuse as an option. So,
while it is not possible to look at exact trend
data, it seems clear that the concern about The
Economy and Jobs has increased in salience while
other issues such as Education and
Anti-terrorism Efforts have dropped slightly.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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Issue Concern Differences
And, which ONE of the following issue areas
would be MOST important to you in deciding how to
vote for a candidate for Congress?
Percentage is First and Second Choice Combined
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Profiling the sub-groups most concerned about the
issue of corporate abuse.

• Top Sub-groups Most Important Issue(Corporate
  Abuse/First and Second Choice Combined 9)
• Retired Men Age 60 15
• Women Age 35-54 15
• Silent Generation (Age 60-77) 14
• Independent Men 13
• Urban Men 13

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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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But, believe us when we tell you that deepening
anger about corporate scandals will matter to the
American people. Consider the following...

Seventy-four percent (74) of all likely voters
and 78 of Independents report that they own
stock market investments or have retirement
accounts. Fifty-nine percent (59) of these
investors report having experienced losses on
these holdings in 2002, with 67 of Independents
report losses. Only six percent (6) of
investors say their market holdings have
increased in value. Among those who reported
losses, the median amount of the loss is 20 of
the value for all voters and Independents say
their retirement accounts have dropped by
30. This means that roughly 42 of all voters
and 43 of Independent on this NPR survey
reported stock losses this year, with the median
loss being 20 and 30, of their portfolios
value respectively. These people will continue
to be focused on corporate scandals if the market
continues to struggle. An all-time high of 28
of voters could correctly identify the Dow Jones
Average.

Believe us, these voters are paying attention!
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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Looking at the generic congressional vote by what
issues people say will determine their vote for
Congress shows each party enjoys a decided
advantage on different issues.
Congressional Ballot By Respondents Top TWO Most
Important Issues
Republican Advantage
Democratic Advantage
8 ENVIRONMENT
47
(DEM 68 - GOP 21 )
24 SOCIAL SECURITY/MEDICARE
27
(DEM 56 - GOP 29 )
21 HEALTH CARE
22
(DEM 51 - GOP 30 )
35 ECONOMY JOBS
13
(DEM 47 - GOP 34 )
23 EDUCATION
13
(DEM 45 - GOP 33 )
9 CORPORATE ABUSE
9
(DEM 46 - GOP 37 )
7 DRUGS/CRIME
9
(DEM 37 - GOP 46 )
12 TAXES
24
(DEM 31 - GOP 55 )
16 ANTI-TERRORISM EFFORTS
28
(DEM 29 - GOP 57 )
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12 FEDERAL SPENDING
(DEM 27 - GOP 56 )
16 MORAL VALUES
48
(DEM 18 - GOP 66 )
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The Democrat net margin on the generic vote has
ticked up on the issues of the Economy and Jobs
and Social Security/Medicare.
GOP/Dem Advantage by the Leading Issues
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Clearly, the issue agenda of this cycle has been
impacted by the drop in the market and the focus
on corporate scandals. So, we paired two
statements of what either a Republican or a
Democratic candidate might say during this cycle
and asked respondents which ONE statement comes
closest to what they think, that is, are most
likely to agree with. The Democrat statement goes
beyond the issue of corporate abuse and includes
a linkage that, in fact, Democrat candidates are
likely to make this cycle to the use of the
Social Security Trust Fund.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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We tested the following Democrat language on all
three evenings
The Democratic candidate who says, the
irresponsibility of CEOs is hurting employees,
investors, and our economy. Weak enforcement of
laws and new corporate tax breaks gave a green
light to such excesses. We should crack down on
corporate fraud and protect pensions. The
president should fire the high government
officials who sold off stock while pensions
crashed and the Congress should stop the
financial gimmicks, like draining the Social
Security Trust Fund, that endangers people's
retirement.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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The linkage to the need to protect pensions and
to Social Security are the clear reasons selected
among the people who choose the Democrat argument
over the three evenings
Most Likely to agree with
Now, which ONE part of the Democratic statement
on corporate scandals made you MOST likely to
agree with the Democratic candidate for Congress
would it be ...
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We should crack down on corporate fraud and
protect pensions Congress should stop the
financial gimmicks, like draining the Social
Security Trust Fund Weak enforcement of laws and
new corporate tax breaks gave a green light to
such excesses The president should fire the high
government officials who sold off stock
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13
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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We tested a different Republican statement each
evening. The first two evenings, the Democrat
statement bested the Republican statement overall
and by wider margins among important swing voter
groups such as older women, Independents, and
suburban women.
The first two Republican statements tested
were First NightThe Republican candidate who
says that President Bush and Republicans in
Congress have acted swiftly, prosecuting
corporate criminals at Arthur Andersen and
investigating Enron and other companies who have
broken the law. Bush and Republicans in Congress
have passed tough new penalties, including jail
time, and requiring corporate executives to
personally repay any money they have made on
falsified financial reports. Second NightThe
Republican candidate who says the Bush
administration has acted swiftly, prosecuting
corporate criminals at Arthur Andersen and
investigating Enron. Bush and Republicans in
Congress have passed tough new penalties,
including jail time, and requiring corporate
executives to personally repay any money they
have made on falsified financial reports. Now,
Republicans have gone on to pass retirement
security reforms that give workers more control
over their 401K and pension funds and
guaranteeing seniors Social Security benefits
can never be cut.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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A majority of likely voters selected the
Democratic statement the first two nights of the
survey.
First Night
Second Night
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The third night, the Republican statement was
significantly reworked and the following
statement was read to respondents
The Republican candidate who says the Bush
administration has acted swiftly to put a stop to
corporate abuse by passing a tough new law that
will put any executive found guilty of filing
inaccurate financial reports in jail. To protect
and secure the retirement savings of everyday
Americans, Republicans have gone on to pass
legislation that will give workers more control
over their 401K and pension funds, and will keep
our countys commitment to Americas seniors by
ensuring they get every penny theyve been
promised of their Social Security benefit.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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There are significant limitations to best
understanding this last night of data as it was
only asked of 234 respondents and the questions
style and format were different than the Democrat
statement, but directionally, its clear the
final Republican statement tested better than the
previous attempts the first two nights of
interviewing.
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Across the three nights of interviewing, the
first Republican statement included no reference
to Social Security at all, the second night a
promise that seniors Social Security benefits
can never be cut, to more specific wording the
third evening reiterating a Republican
commitment to Americas seniorsensuring they
get every penny theyve been promised of their
Social Security benefit. Its clear the
Republican statement gathered strength as the
element on Social Security was strengthened.
Most Likely to agree with
Now, which ONE part of the Republican statement
on corporate scandals made you MOST likely to
agree with the Republican candidate for Congress
would it be ...
Second Night
Third Night
Pass retirement security reforms that give
workers more control over their 401K and pension
funds Requiring corporate executives to repay ay
money made on falsified financial
reports Prosecution of Arthur Andersen and
Investigation of Enron Penalties that include
jail time Guaranteeing seniors Social Security
benefits can never be cut
Passing a tough new law that will put any
executive found guilty of filing inaccurate
financial reports in jail Keeping our countys
commitment to Americas seniors by ensuring they
get every penny theyve been promised of their
Social Security benefit Passing legislation that
will give workers more control over their 401K
and pension funds
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24
34
16
16
24
10
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002
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Overall the results across the three evenings on
the Republican versus the Democrat language test
on the issue of corporate accountability are
important and instructive about the campaign
debate of the 2002 cycle. Corporate abuse is
going to be linked to a broader debate about
Social Security and it guarantees the issue of
Social Security is going to be an even more core
element of the debate and the outcome of this
cycles battle for Congress.
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National Public Radio, July 31, 2002