Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve

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Modelling the conception to first birthday
mortality curve
Workshop on Fetal and Infant Survival

• Dr Paul Williamson Prof. Bob Woods
• Department of Geography

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600
600
500
575
400
550
300
525
Dying out of 1000 conceptions
Dying out of 1000 conceptions
200
500
100
475
0
450
0
200
400
600
Days after LMP
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Embryo 14-41 days after LMP
Early fetal 42-195 days after LMP
Late fetal (stillbirths) 196-279 days after LMP
Early neonatal 280-286 days after LMP
Late neonatal 287-307 days after LMP
Post neonatal 308-644 days after LMP
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Where y predicted fetal-infant loss per 1000
conceptions x days after LMP yo 473.3523 xo
280 A -2549.0207 B 0.1197 C 28.9374 D
6.8747 E 1.1418 F 84.4912 G 154.719 H
11.1787
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a) Component 1 embryonic and early fetal loss
14-196 days after LMP
Exponential growth curve
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b) Component 2 late fetal and neonatal
196-308 days after LMP
Aysmmetrical sigmoidal (4 params.)
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c) Component 3 post-neonatal 308-644 days
after LMP
Asymmetrical sigmoidal (3 params.)