Geospatial science and technology 20042024: Seven forecasts

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Geospatial science and technology 2004-2024
Seven forecasts

• Keith C. Clarke
• Professor and Chair
• Department of Geography
• UC Santa Barbara
• kclarke_at_geog.ucsb.edu

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2004 and 2024

• What is the state of geospatial computing today?
• What are the issues today?
• What will geospatial computing be like in 2024?
• What issues will be of concern then?
• Seven forecasts along the way

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Computing in 2004

• Average car hosts 50 computers (embedded
  computing)
• PC 3GHz barrier and GB/ approaching 1.0
• HPC approaching tens of Teraflops
• GRID computing initiative at NSF
• Low cost supercomputing e.g. Beowulf clusters
• Mobile wireless based on 802.11x etc
• Internet possibly approaching a billion nodes
• Windows vs. Linux, but many more

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Computing issues in 2004

• Building the cyberinfrastructure
• The digital divide
• The where of computing
• User interfaces The end of GUIs, WIMPs, and the
  desktop
• Wireless internet
• Who owns software in the network era?

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Geographic information technology in 2004

• Countering industry trends
• GPS mature, GLONASS, Galileo, GPS II, indoor?
• GPS and GIS tightly coupled e.g. IVNS
• Mobile GIS
• The data fire hose
• Cellular phones and location technology E-911
• New generation of space imaging
• Interoperability and standards
• Google search on geographic information
  system2.97M hits

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What will the issues be in 2024?
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Forecast 1 Ubiquitous GIS

• Computing will be ubiquitous, distributed, mobile
  and on-demand

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Cyberinfrastructure

• aka Grid computing
• NSF Vision for next era of computing
• integrated suite of computational engines,
  mass storage, networks, digital libraries and
  databases, sensors, software and services (NSF,
  2003).
• Can include human users and the user interface
• NSF (2003) Revolutionizing Science and
  Engineering Through Cyberinfrastructure Report
  of the National Science Foundation Blue-Ribbon
  Advisory Panel on Cyberinfrastructure Atkins
  report.

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Cyberinfrastructure vision

• Services available on demand
• Independence of source
• The computer is the network

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Geospatial elements of the GRID 1. GPS
Source U. Minnesota IVS Lab
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GPS Accurate, but multipath, etc
Green Trees Purple Buildings Image courtesy of
Kevin Knight
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Geospatial elements of the GRID 1. Portability
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Forecast 2 Wearable GIS

• We will wear our computers, not sit in front of
  them

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Wearable GIS
http//www.itmedia.co.jp/broadband/0309/18
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UCSB Battuta project
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Field Test Prototype YAH, Map view, text off,
perspective on
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Field Test Prototype YAH, Image view, text off,
perspective on
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Field testing Track logs
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Xybernaut Poma
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Forecast 3 No more data problems

• The National Map will be complete
• The National Spatial Data Infrastructure will
  support the economy, government and education

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The USGS vision of The National Map

• A database, providing public domain core
  geographic data about the United States and its
  territories that other agencies can extend,
  enhance, and reference as they concentrate on
  maintaining other data that are unique to their
  needs.
• Needs
• Up-to-date
• Real time access
• Support public safety and welfare
• The Problem Current paper maps are on average 23
  years old

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USGS Vision

• Ambitious, challenging and worthwhile
• Nationally consistent
• Includes pointers to multiple scales and data
  types, e.g. Imagery
• Flexible enough to be subdivided by any pertinent
  set of geographic units, e.g. Congressional
  districts, health districts, watersheds, etc.
• Sets goal of rapid turnaround of map revisions (7
  days)

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Benefits (NRC Report)

• The nation has a vested interest in ensuring
  rapid implementation of a nationally integrated
  spatial database to meet national needs,
  including national security, environmental
  protection and land stewardship.
• Benefits
• Natural resources
• Prevention of loss of life and property
• Reduction of duplication and waste
• Economic spin-offs to geospatial business
  community
• Shared work and value enhancement to partners

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NAS National Map Vision

• Two inherent levels of the project
• (1) Nationally consistent digital map coverage
  maintained at one or more spatial scales
• The blanket
• Already exists at coarser scale (The National
  Atlas)
• (2) Patchwork of local data with varied scale,
  source, accuracy, spatial extent, ownership
  models, resolution, thematic content, etc.
• The quilt
• Data are contributed by partners

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The metaphor
Independent patches, different sizes, shapes
needs coordination
One weave uniform coverage
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The metaphor (ctd)
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National Map Viewer
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DOQQ plus DLG streets
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DRG plus DLG streets
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NLCDB plus DLG streets
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Seamless data download
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Other components of the NSDI (Portals, standards,
services, data)

• Geospatial Onestop
• Geography Network
• EROS Data Center
• FGDC Standards
• Alexandria Digital Library
• State data centers e.g. Teale in CA
• MapQuest
• NAVTEQ, etc.
• Counties, municipalities, universities, tribes,
  etc.

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Forecast 4 Wired universe

• Data will come from everywhere and go to anywhere

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High resolution imagery
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Sensor networks Webcams, connected motes and MEMS
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Spatial search Google local
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Location-based services Location knowledge and
sensitivity
Courtesy HCI Group Cornell Univ.
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Forecast 5 Interfaces

• GUI and WIMP will be dead, long live perceptual
  and multimodal computer interfaces

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Gesture recognition and AR
Images/Movies courtesy of Mathias Kolsh, UCSB
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Software demonstration Battuta
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Software Demonstration AR hand tracking
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Forecast 6 Methods

• Spatial analysis and visualization will be
  accepted methodologies across many disciplines
  and applications

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Spatialization
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Computing issues in 2024

• Network monitors itself, who sees?
• Spyware and security vs Personal privacy
• Who pays for services?
• Who are the digit police?
• Competing solutions and liability
• The limits of accuracy
• Tractability envelope New methods
• Simulation is everywhere, for everything

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Geospatial issues in 2024

• Who owns your lifeline? (Huisman and Forer, 1998
  students in Auckland)

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Keiths Daily Commute
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Forecast 7 Geospatial privacy

• Your geospatial data rights will be under threat

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The threat from commerce

• Minority Report
• I dread the day when I am woken from a sound
  sleep by a noisy, flashing advertisement
  projected on my retina urging me to download a
  new free Web-browser, one that I cannot turn off
  without mentally focusing on a dark grey
  Decline button hovering at the far range of my
  peripheral vision. (Clarke, 1999).

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The threat from government

• FOIA vs. Mapping the Risks
• Scott McNealy of Sun Microsystems
• "You have no privacy - get over it."

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Come a long way, but a long way still to go!