The

1
The
Y 2 K
Problem
The End of Civilization ... Or ... Just Another
Bad Day
Todd Williams Area 6 Learning Technology Hub
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Y2K - Lighter Side
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Y2K

• Predictions / Probable side effects
• Defining the problem
• Computer related issues
• Consumer concerns
• School / organization preparedness
• Personal preparedness
• Resources

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Y2K - The Lighter Side
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Some Predictions

• Power grid failure
• World-wide economic recession
• Water supply disruption
• Banking/financial system crash
• Communications breakdown
• Aircraft grounded
• Civilization meltdown

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Probable Side Effects

• Disruption in water, gas, electric and phone
  services
• Checks from government programs late
• Disruption in commercial transportation, and/or
  postal/shipping services.

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What is the problem?
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The Century Date Change

• Not a Bug, but a design limitation in software
  and hardware
• Also convention habit

3/3/99

• How do you write 2000 using two digits?

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IT IS COMING!

• The Year 2000 is 286 days away! (3/20/99)
• There is nothing we can do to prevent it.
• Are you prepared?
• Is your district or school prepared?

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The two digit convention

• If you enter 02, what will the program
  interpret that to mean?
• 1902 ? 2002?
• Or will it reject the entry?

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Types of Date Problems

• Miscalculation of ages, interest
• Data overflow corruption
• Sorting in wrong order
• Incorrect comparisons
• Misinterpretation of 99 and 00
• Wrong leap year (missing Feb 29 in 2000)

Examples follow...
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Date Calculations

• Calculations involving ages, interest 98 00
  -56 -56 42 -56
• What can be stored in only two digits? -5
  56
• Or a program crash!

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Sorting problems

• Sorting by year
• Want 97 98 99 00 01
• Get 00 01 97 98 99

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Other Problems

• Rolling over from 99 to 100
• Special dates 9/9/99 forever 01/01/01
  not available

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Approaches to Display Storage

• Full date expansion to 4 digit year
• Input, storage, and output
• May be too late to change
• Keep 2 digit year input/output
• 4 digit year storage, so internal logic OK
• Use date window for year e.g. 30 - 99
  1930 - 1999 00 - 29 2000 - 2029
• Do not change 2 digit year
• large amount of logic changes risk!

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Other Y2K Information

• Day of the week differences
• Jan 1, 1900 was on a Monday
• Jan 1, 2000 will be on a Saturday
• Potential Pre-2000 Problems
• April 9, 1999 - 99th day of year (4/99)
• 8/22 23 - possible interruption in satellite
  transmissions
• Sept 9, 1999 - 9/9/99 used in programming to mean
  no exp date, or forever

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Other Y2K Information

• Other Y2K dates needing to be tested
• START TEST CONDITION
• 31 Dec 1998 Year 99 highest value in two
  digit field
• 9 Apr 1999 99th day of the year
• 4 Jan 2000 1st Working day for Y2K
• 7 Jan 2000 1st end of week for Y2K
• 31 Jan 2000 1st end of Month for Y2k
• 29 Feb 2000 2000 leap year
• 31 Mar 2000 1st end of quarter for Y2K
• 30 Jun 2000 1st end of financial year for Y2K
• 31 Dec 2000 1st end of calendar year for Y2K
• 28 Feb 2001 2001 is not a leap year
• 29 Feb 2004 004 is a leap year

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Computer Related Issues
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Problem Areas

• Hardware
• Operating Software
• Common Office Applications
• Commercial and Custom Applications

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Computer Hardware

• Real time clock - older systems use 2 digit year
• PC BIOS - most before 1996 will need to be
  replaced
• Macintosh hardware OK

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Peripherals

• Printers
• Scanners
• Digital cameras
• Modems
• Fax machines
• Copiers
• Intercom systems
• Voice mail
• Telephone PBX/key systems

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Operating Systems

• Most MS Windows compliant with minor patches
  through 2108
• All Macintosh OS compliant through February 6,
  2040
• Apple IIgs running System 6 or later compliant
• Apple II, II, IIe, IIc, IIc do not have a
  system clock

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Microsoft

• Windows 98 OK
• Windows 95 Apply Y2K patches
• Windows NT 4.0 Update to SP4
• Windows NT 3.51 Update to SP5 hotfix

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Novell

• NetWare 5 OK
• NetWare 4.2 OK
• NetWare 4.11 Optional update
• NetWare 4.10 Update available
• NetWare 3.12 Update available
• NetWare 3.11 Not being tested

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Common Office Applications
Interpreting 2 Digit Years (Windowing)

• Excel 4 all in 1900s
• Excel 5 95 20 in 1900s
• Excel 97 30 in 1900s
• Lotus 123 5 all in 1900s
• Lotus 123 97 50 in 1900s

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More Interpreting 2 Digit Years

• Access 2 all dates in 1900s
• Access 95 depends on OLE library
• Access 97 depends on OLE library
• Word 6/95 00 is 2000, all else 1900s
• Word 97 30 in 1900s

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Problems with Common Office Applications

• What happens when new version opens an old
  spreadsheet?
• What happens when a 2 digit date is passed
  between applications?
• User logic errors using spreadsheet dates.
• Common applications using dates may have problems
  even if OS and hardware compliant!

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Commercial and Custom Applications

• Suppliers may not be around
• May not want or be able to upgrade
• Software upgrade may need more hardware
• Upgrade may not be completed on time
• Upgrade may have new and unknown problems
• Dont forget homegrown spreadsheets and databases

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What Can I Do?
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Y2K - Lighter Side
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What Can I Do?

• Appoint a Y2K manager
• Find out what software you have
• Determine likelihood of Y2K failure
• Determine impact of such a failure
• Determine how it can be fixed
• Replace / Upgrade / Modify / Abandon
• Obtain adequate resources
• Manage the project well

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Year 2000 Tools

• BIOS checkers (PCs only)
• Application inventory
• Data file scanning and correction
• Code scanning
• Automated testing
• General software tools

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Consumer Concerns
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Hidden Computer Chips

• Bell and alarm systems
• Fire alarms
• Heating and A/C control systems
• PA system
• Microwave ovens
• Drivers education vehicles
• Shop power tools
• Elevators

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Y2K - Lighter Side
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Consumer Information

• AIR CONDITIONERS CLIMATE CONTROL
• Programmable thermostats found in most homes
  will not have any Y2K problems, according to
  officials from Honeywell, Emerson Electric Co.
  and Carrier Corp.
• Tend to be on weekly rather than annual cycles.
• Window-unit air conditioners also have no
  problem, according to Panasonic, Friedrich Air
  Conditioning Co., and Whirlpool.
• AUTOMOBILES
• The Big Three domestic car makers GM, Ford and
  Chrysler as well as Honda and Toyota say none
  of their cars or pickup trucks have date-related
  problems.
• Most vehicles manufactured in the last decade
  have at least one microprocessor under the hood.
  But those chips generally rely on mileage and
  ignition starts rather than dates.
• CAMCORDERS
• made since 1990 should, in most cases, operate
  without any complications.
• A small number of older camcorder models made by
  companies including Sony and Panasonic will
  operate even if the clock used to record dates
  malfunctions or requires resetting, company
  officials said.

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Consumer Information (contd)

• CAMERAS
• manufactured by Canon, Nikon and Kodak will
  function without trouble, according to the
  companies.
• Kodaks with a date stamp, for example, have a
  25-year calendar built into their memory, a
  spokesman said.
• CELLULAR
• telephones will almost all operate properly,
  according to the two leading industry
  associations.
• Cellular service providers in some cases are
  still debugging their networks.
• DIGITAL CLOCKS AND WATCHES
• typically have a built-in mathematical formula
  that determines the day of the week and number of
  days in a particular month, and therefore should
  not be troubled by the turn of the millennium,
  according to Timex Corp and Casio Inc.
• COFFEE MAKERS
• will still brew on New Year's Day, 2000. Many of
  these machines can be programmed to start at a
  certain time, but representatives from Norelco
  Consumer Products Co., Black Decker and Mr.
  Coffee said the appliances do not track either
  the week or the year.

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Consumer Information (contd)

• DISHWASHERS
• in some cases can be programmed to turn on
  automatically, but even those with a clock will
  not have a Y2K problem because they do not track
  day of the week, month or year, according to
  representatives from Whirlpool, Maytag and
  Kenmore.
• FAX MACHINES
• manufactured during the 1990s generally will be
  problem-free. Older machines made by NEC and
  Panasonic, including some made this decade, may
  have clocks that malfunction or require
  resetting, company officials said.
• HOME SECURITY
• devices that can be programmed to turn off and on
  automatically should be trouble-free, according
  to Honeywell and ADT Security Services Inc.
• Some office security systems likely require Y2K
  software repairs.
• MICROWAVES
• made by major manufacturers including Sharp
  Electronics, Kenmore, Kitchen Aid, Brother,
  Panasonic, Samsung and Goldstar will be
  trouble-free, according to the companies. Clocks
  in the appliances do not track the year.

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Consumer Information (contd)

• OVENS
• that can be programmed to turn on automatically
  rely on computerized clocks but will not have Y2K
  problems because they do not track the year,
  representatives from Kitchen Aid, Magic Chef and
  Kenmore said.
• PAGERS
• made by Panasonic and NEC should not have
  problems, according to company representatives.
• Motorola has recently reported on its web site
  that "certain Motorola Pager Products shall
  require upgrades to be Year 2000 ready."
• The telecommunications networks providing pager
  services are still working to sure their systems
  will function.
• REFRIGERATORS and FREEZERS
• made in recent years all have automated devices
  that prevent frost from building up, but they are
  activated based on the frost itself and not a
  calendar, according to the Association of
  American Home Appliance Manufacturers.

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Consumer Information (contd)

• TELEPHONES
• Ordinary telephones generally will not be
  affected by Y2K gremlins, although phone
  companies are working feverishly to ensure
  service is not disrupted.
• Some phone sets with clocks, more typically found
  in offices, may require a software upgrade,
  according to Panasonic officials.
• TELEVISIONS
• will not black out once the ball drops in Times
  Square to signify New Year's 2000, according to
  manufacturers Panasonic, Sony and Samsung.
• VIDEO RECORDERS
• in some cases will require manual resetting in
  January 2000. Most older models should be
  trouble-free because they generally have only
  14-day calendars.
• Most newer models have Y2K compliant calendars,
  according to Panasonic and Samsung. Music disk
  players should by problem-free, according to
  Sharp, Sony and Panasonic.
• WASHING MACHINES and DRYERS
• should function without interruption in the new
  millennium, according to Kenmore, Whirlpool and
  Maytag.

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School / Organization Preparedness
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Y2K - Lighter Side
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Y2K - Lighter Side
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School/Organization Preparedness

• Handout - Department of Education
• Video - Meeting the Year 2000 Computer Challege
• Consider extra emergency days immediately after
  Christmas break.
• Contact food vendors, service personnel as soon
  as possible.
• Contact insurance company

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COMPARE Ratings

• GartnerGroup has defined a scale called COMPARE
  (COMpliance Progress And REadiness) that
  enterprises can use to judge their own or their
  partners' efforts for year 2000 compliance. The
  COMPARE scale features the following levels
• Level 1 Begin. This is the stage at which all
  enterprises begin preliminary activity.
• Level 2 Problem Determination. This level
  indicates that a complete inventory of technology
  and business processes has been taken, and
  preliminary costs and resources have been
  determined.
• Level 3 Plan Complete and Resources Committed.
  Achieving this level indicates that
  mission-critical systems have been identified,
  and a detailed understanding of remediation
  strategies and needed resources have been
  identified and committed for that technology.
• Level 4 Operational Sustainability. At this
  level, mission-critical technology has been
  remediated from year 2000 risk.
• Level 5 Fully Compliant. At this level, all
  technology within the enterprise and within
  business partners has been made compliant.
• GartnerGroup presents COMPARE level status by
  industry (see Figure 1) and by geographic area
  (see Figure 2).

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Status by Industry - Worldwide
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Source Gartner Group
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Status by Geographic Area - Worldwide
Source Gartner Group
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Y2K Compliance vs. Risk
Source Gartner Group
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Steps Being Taken to Fix the Problem
Should be here by Sept 1999
Should be here...if not ... 90 days behind.
Should be done by end of June 1999.
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Illinois Year 2000 Remediation

• 115 M budget for remediation
• SB1674 established Year 2000 Technology Task
  Force
• 337 critical systems affecting public safety,
  public health, financial/personnel aspects of
  government service
• Developed and distributed Embedded Systems
  Planning Guide to all agencies
• Y2K coordinated by Bureau of Communication
  Computer Services, Dept. of Central Management
  Services

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Financial Expenditures

• Through Oct 98
• 150 - 225 Billion in US (70 of industry)
• 1 - 2 Trillion worldwide
• Total expected (US) - 6.8 Trillion

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Status of Readiness

• SSA - 100
• VA - 90
• Globally
• 80 (companies with US backing)
• Fed Govt overall - 90
• State Govts overall - 80
• Local Govts overall - 60 - 70
• Banking industry most prepared
• 90 by last November

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Personal Preparedness
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Handout - Personal Y2K Planning
Source Gartner Group
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Resources
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Y2K Resources

• Free government publications
• Mailings from banks, utility companies, retailers
• Write letters (see sample)
• Internet (see handout)
• Listen to news media - but remain objective

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Parting Advice

• Effort / cost to fix must be balanced against
  impact of Y2K failure.
• Take problem seriously - but be rational
• Become part of the solution.
• Be prepared.

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