The Future of Radio according to Silicon Valley

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The Future of Radio(according to Silicon Valley)
RadioInks Radio Forecast 07 December 5, 2006

• Stewart Alsop
• Alsop Louie Partners

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Just A Customer

• Im no expert in radio
• Creds HiWire, journalist, Oxy DJ
• 25 years in Silicon Valley
• Inc., InfoWorld, PC Letter, VC
• Agenda
• Customer feedback about radio
• Major developments in Silicon Valley
• How radio silicon Valley Radio 2.0

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The Radio In My Next Car

• I want a new Mini Cooper
• Maybe not 40,000 miles
• The decision
• What kind of radio?
• It wont be terrestrial!
• It will be a satellite radio
• Aftermarket (keep) or built in (buy new)

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Giving Thanks With Sonos

• Discovered Madeleine Peyroux
• Ate way too much turkey
• Started demonstrating Sonos
• It became a game to name an artist not on Rhapsody

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Advertising against radio

• New (renamed) SF station
• Introduced in April, built around Mr. Maxwell
• 70s 80s Whatever We Feel Like
• Broadband? Can we say that? It sounds sexist.
  Better check with the chicks in HR.
• We never play the same song twice in one day

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Laymans History of Radio

• The Good Old Days
• Telecom Act of 1996
• Real Networks Real Audio (MS Media Server)
• Satellite radio
• Apple iPod
• HD Radio?
• Clear Channel sold at cost
• Google Radio
• The Scary New Future

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Whats Good About Radio?

• Universal 98 penetration, 150M listeners
• iPod Podcasting 60
• Satellite 20
• Internet radio 40
• Local traffic, personalities, news
• Personalized Get what you want
• How music gets discovered

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So whats wrong with radio?

• Too much advertising
• TiVo saved television
• Choice control
• People arent listening as much
• Kids spending three hours less per week
• Everyone has so many alternatives
• Radio Customer Dissatisfaction Index
• Majority of listening in cars
• How often do all six pre-sets have advertising at
  the same time
• Increased from 20 to 60 between 1996 and 2006

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Is Clear Channel The Devil?

• Clear Channel started accumulating stations in
  1996.
• Telecommunications Act of 1996
• Clear Channel sold for 19B in 2006
• Dramatic decline in price/industry revenue

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Its Not Clear Channels Fault

• Radio was simple when radios were simple

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Radio Isnt Simple Anymore
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Radio on Web 2.0

• Pandora
• Automates a radio station with algorithms
• RadioTime
• Provides radio station directory
• Rhapsody/Napster/MusicNow
• Streaming services with huge libraries
• Audible.com
• Spoken word
• Endless music and spoken services
• Dont even mention podcasting
• Or peer-to-peer filesharing!

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What do these devices mean?

• Everybodys got a new device
• Mobile phones, home systems, clock radios
• TiVo for radio?
• Sirius just introduced it!
• Alsop RaVio
• Channel selectionalgorithms

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Enabling Technologies

• Intelligent, networked devices
• Ubiquitous broadband
• Wired and wireless
• Fixed and mobile
• Voice, audio video over IP
• Distributed grid computing
• Telepresence
• Personalization
• Localization
• Integrated web-based applications

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The Future Radio 2.0

• Its not about the radio anymore
• Receivers broadcast towers dont matter
• HD Radio isnt enough better
• Internet isnt just another way to broadcast
• How to make radio more than a feature
• Programming products
• Television model
• Did radio get a free ride from IP rules?
• Locality has to matter
• Why arent radio companies doing local search?