Football for KMS: NFL 01

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Football for KMS NFL 01
APRIL 30TH 2008

• Abhijit Kumar
• Kaijia Bao
• Vishal Rupani

Course Instructor Prof. Hsinchun Chen
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Agenda
ABHI
VISHAL
KAI
Data Cleaning Statistical Analysis Final Paper
Data Collection Client Relations Final
Presentation
Data Import Data Transformation Data Mining
Data Mining Techniques Key Findings KMS
Demonstration
Objectives Literature Overview Conclusion
Knowledge DiscoveryStatistical Analysis
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Research Objectives

• Pattern identification
• Descriptive Statistics
• Data Mining Techniques
• Prediction
• Developing a strategy
• Fantasy League

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Literature Overview

• Moneyball The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
• Michael Lewis
• Las Vegas Odds
• www.VegasInsider.com
• NFL Fantasy League
• www.Nfl.com/fantasy

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Knowledge Discovery Process
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Knowledge Discovery Process
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Dependency Network
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Dependency Network
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Intended Player Statistics

• Top 3 Intended Players for Passes for the 4
  teams that played in the semi-finals

H.Ward (142), P.Burress (121), B.Shaw (44)
T.Brown (143), D.Patten (93), M.Edwards (39)
T.Holt (133), M.Faulk (104), I.Bruce (103)
J.Thrash (107), D.Staley (89), T.Pinkston (83)
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Play Direction Statistics

• Direction of Rushes for all plays in 2001 season

Right Tackle
Right Guard
Left Tackle
Left Guard
Right End
Left End
Middle
Middle
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Play Direction Statistics

• Direction of Rushes for all plays in 2001 season

Number of Rushes
Direction
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Yardage Statistics

• Yardage during each down for Pass and Rush

Passes
Rushes
Average Yards Covered
Yards To Go
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Play Decision Statistics

• Play Decisions for the 4 teams that played in the
  semi-finals

Play Decision Type
Number of Decisions
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Play Decision Analysis Overview

• Discovery of what environmental and/or game
  factors affect play decision
• Discovery of football expert knowledge through
  data mining
• Prediction of play decisions based on game factors

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Play Decision ID3 Analysis
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Play Decision ID3 Analysis
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Play Decision Accuracy
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Rush Accuracy Lift Chart
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Field Goal Accuracy Lift Chart
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Play Decision Classification Matrix
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Play Decision Key Findings

• Football strategy can be discovered through data,
  instead of knowledge experts
• Top 3 factors affecting decision
• Down, Off Ydl, Time
• Accuracy of the models are different depending on
  the decision we are trying to predict
• Team specific strategies may be discovered with
  more data.

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Play Direction Analysis Overview

• Discover teams strengths and weakness in their
  defense and/or offense
• Prediction of play directions based on game
  factors

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Play Direction Accuracy
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Play Direction Key Findings (ID3)
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Intended Player Analysis Overview

• Discover each teams favored recipient of a pass
• Prediction of intended player based on game
  factors

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Intended Player Lift Chart
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Intended Player Key Findings

• There are 400 intended players
• Not enough data to accurately predict intended
  players
• Not enough data to gain knowledge over
  statistical models

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Conclusions
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Future Direction

• Increase sample set
• More instances of different scenarios
• Incorporate additional information
• Pro-football-Reference.com
• VegasInsider.com (Odds for favorites)
• Extend Analysis
• Nested case (Historical performance)

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References

• Prof. Lisa Ordóñez
• Professor in Statistics
• Steve Aldrich
• Author of Moneyball in Football
• About Football
• Glossary of terms

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Knowledge Discovery Process
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Research Objectives Literature
Overview Knowledge Discovery Statistics Intended
Player Statistics Play Direction Statistics
Yardage Statistics Play Decision
Accuracy Lift Chart Charts Analysis Play
Decision Analysis Play Direction Analysis
Intended Player Conclusions Future
Directions System Design
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Backup Slide Section
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Data Collection
55,000 rows 90 columns
47,033 rows 30 columns
Dependent 4 Independent 10 Calculated - 9
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System Design
NFL KMS
FOOTBALL DATA
FIELD STRATEGY
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Yards Analysis

• Yards gained on the play is used as a metric to
  measure effort
• Discover how environmental and/or game factors
  affect players efforts
• Key Findings Top 4 environmental factors
• Off Ydl
• Time
• Down
• Gap