Paleoclimatology: Understanding the Past to Predict the Future

1
PaleoclimatologyUnderstanding the Past to
Predict the Future

• By Nathan Boyarsky

2
Introduction

• NASA scientists are using mathematical models and
  past weather patterns to predict future events in
  the climate
• Main source of data derives from using
  supercomputers

3
Supercomputers
4
Atmospheric Model

• To run a model, scientists
• divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid
• apply basic equations
• evaluate the results

5
Environmental Issue

• Earths weather patterns
• Climate

6
Putting the Models to a Real World Test

• Decided to use a volcano eruption in 1991 to
  match observed data with predicted data from the
  models

7
The Eruption and After Affects

• Mount Pinatubo
• - June 12, 1991, 1st eruption in 500 years
• - Sent 17 million tons of sulfur dioxide into
  the stratosphere
• - Sulfate aerosol cloud spread thin over entire
  atmosphere for more than a year
• -Global temperatures fell by about 0.5 degrees
  Celsius, and the amount of atmospheric water
  vapor decreased.

8
Global Circulation Model

• The model was a success
• Observed data was almost exactly the same as
  predicted data using global circulation model

9
How could the eruption of a volcano in the
Philippines change a weather pattern over the
Atlantic?

• Aerosols in the stratosphere change the way
  planetary waves act
• Changes in planetary waves should also affect the
  North Atlantic Oscillation

10
HadCM3 climate model

• Shows the distribution of warming during the 21st
  century predicted if economic growth stays
  constant.
• The average warming predicted by this model is
  3.0 C.

11
Conclusion

• Using mathematical models, scientists will be
  able to predict how human activity affects
  climate changes.
• Offer information about rapid climate change that
  could prove useful in the future

12
(No Transcript)