Economic and Market Analysis

1
Economic and Market Analysis

• Mike Birks
• ETSU

2
European Community

• Consumption of electricity in 1996 - 2,253 TWh
• Growth to 2010 - 2,811 TWh (1.6)
• 1996 system loss estimated to be 146 TWh or 6.5
• Loss significant slightly more than demand for
  Sweden 142 TWh

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Modelling the European Electricity System

• Use the simple model developed by ETSU for the UK

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Transmission System Power Losses
5

• How much of system loss can be attributed to
  transformers?

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UK Distribution System Losses
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Distribution System Losses

• Line loss
• Transformer loss
• Services
• Theft?
• UK - 17.8 TWh (5.7 )

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Loss on European Distribution System Due to
Transformers

• 43 for transformers - as UK
• 116 TWh
• 2 of all electricity distributed.

9
Transformer Replacement

• In Europe 150,000 unit sales per year
• Replacement rate 3.75 per year
• Transformer life - 40 Years
• For model assume A-A as base case

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Improvement in Energy Efficiency
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Contribution Towards Total Loss
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Savings Potential
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Savings Potential

• Up to 17.95 TWh/year
• Worth 942 million Euro (1999 prices)
• Equivalent to 26 reduction in transformer loss
  and 11 saving of all losses on European
  distribution system.

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Payback Period

• C-C - 1.4 to 2.5 years
• A-AMDT - 8.7 to 11.7 years
• C-AMDT -8.7 to 9.1

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Emissions Savings

• Based on IIEC emissions figures for Europe of 0.4
  Kg CO2/kWh
• C-C minimum standard would provide savings of
  6TWh by 2010
• Equivalent to 2.4 Mt CO2
• Or 1 of the European commitment agreed at Kyoto

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Electricity Use by Customer
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Savings Equivalent to

• Annual energy use of 4.27
  million homes

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Market Characterisation Utilitys

• Responsible view toward energy efficiency.
• In fully liberalised market amount of investment
  determined by allowance provided by Regulator
• In some cases move toward increased environmental
  awareness

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Non-Utility Market

• Major energy users
  
• Large Users
• Small

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National/International Policy

• World Standard IEC 76
• Harmonisation Document 428
• National Standards

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National/International Policycontinued

• Electricity cost to customer
• Voltage tolerances
• Safety
• Noise
• Overall environmental impact of the system

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Mechanisms for Change

• No change
• Enforceable minimum standards
• Financial incentives
• Labelling system
• Buyer Clubs
• Specification tool kit