The Role of Think Tanks and Think Nets in Defining Security Issues and Agendas

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The Role of Think Tanks and Think Nets in
Defining Security Issues and Agendas

• Peter Hayes
• June 6, 2005
• Globalism Institute RMIT University

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Outline

• Traditional think tanks
• Transnational think nets
• Examples
• Information Strategy
• The Global Collaborative

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Traditional think tanks

• One answer to question
• how to organize and deliver knowledge in ways
  that support the pursuit and exercise of
  political power?

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Genesis of Modern Think TanksRand, Hudson, IDA,
CAN
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Traditional think tank roles

• J. McGann, R. Kent Weaver, ed, Think Tanks
  Civil Societies, Transaction Publishers, New
  Brunswick, 2000, p. 3
• (1) playing a mediating function between the
  government and the public

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Traditional think tank roles

• (1) playing a mediating function between the
  government and the public
• (2) identifying, articulating, and evaluating
  current or emerging issues, problems or
  proposals

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Traditional think tank roles

• (1) playing a mediating function between the
  government and the public
• (2) identifying, articulating, and evaluating
  current or emerging issues, problems or
  proposals
• (3) transforming ideas and problems into policy
  issues

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Traditional think tank roles

• (1) playing a mediating function between the
  government and the public
• (2) identifying, articulating, and evaluating
  current or emerging issues, problems or
  proposals
• (3) transforming ideas and problems into policy
  issues
• (4) serving as an informed and independent voice
  in policy debates

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Traditional think tank roles

• (1) playing a mediating function between the
  government and the public
• (2) identifying, articulating, and evaluating
  current or emerging issues, problems or
  proposals
• (3) transforming ideas and problems into policy
  issues
• (4) serving as an informed and independent voice
  in policy debates
• (5) providing a constructive forum for the
  exchange of ideas and information between key
  stakeholders in the policy formulation process

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Think Tank Autonomy

• More or less autonomy from states
• More or less autonomy from corporations
• GONGOs

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Traditional think tank types

• academic
• contract research
• advocacy
• party-affiliated

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Canine metaphors

• revolving door and holding shelf TTTs
• lapdog and guidedog TTTs
• greyhound reformist TTTs
• bloodhound TTTs
• pitbull TTTs
• poodle TTTs

Worry Tank
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"tank" metaphors

• fish tank (aquarium)
• battle tank
• police holding tank
• septic tank, gas tank
• sensory deprivation tank
• cultivation tank
• simulation tank
• --T. Judge, Tank-thoughts" from "Think-tanks,
  May 19, 2003, at http//www.laetusinpraesens.org/
  docs00s/tank.php

Keep an eye on those two.
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Traditional think tank influence

• Articulation of elite interest and legitimation
• Institutional interests in pluralist framework
• D. Abelson, Do Think Tanks Matter? Assessing the
  Impact of Public Policy Institutes, McGill-Queens
  University Press, Montreal, 2000
• D. Stone and A. Denham, Think Tank Traditions,
  Policy research and the politics of ideas,
  Manchester University Press, 2004

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Measuring traditional think tank influence

• Issue articulation (such are addressed to
  publics, intermediaries such as media, elites,
  governments, channeling policy currents,
  coalition formation, and aim to get issues onto
  the public agenda)

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Measuring traditional think tank influence

• Issue articulation
• Policy formulation (such as studies, evaluation,
  briefings, testimony, consultation, networking,
  iconic projects, demonstration effects)

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Measuring traditional think tank influence

• Issue articulation
• Policy formulation
• Policy implementation (such as contracting,
  advisory, media, supply of officials, training,
  database maintenance)

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Indicators of traditional think tank influence

• Supply indicators Proximity, funding and
  staffing level, fraction of total donor resources
  in US, staffing levels, networks of key players

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Indicators of traditional think tank influence

• Supply indicators
• Demand indicators Media exposure, testimony,
  briefings, official appointments, perched
  officials, consultation by officials or
  departments/agencies, conducive or receptive
  political environment

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Indicators of traditional think tank influence

• Supply indicators
• Demand indicators
• Mission indicators Recommendations considered
  or adopted by policymakers perceptions of users
  network centrality advisory role to parties,
  candidates, transition teams, awards, publication
  in or citation of publications in academic
  journals, listserv and website dominance,
  adoption of contrarian positions (that is,
  opposed to official line)

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Actual policy initiative/change/implementation
is the most obvious indicator of impact. 
Research (case studies) and data on causality
is always sorely lacking because funders tend to
neglect such needs. So anecdotes, policymaker
testimony, and circumstantial evidence are the
common fallback in lieu of hard evidence.   If
one is skeptical about such claims and the value
of such evidence, there are other ways to measure
a program's relevance to the policy process and
potential to shape outcomes 
BUT
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Relationships/contacts with policymakers/implement
ersRelationships with individuals (Board members
etc.) with relationships with policymakersExtent
of/quality of circulation of research
productsUptake of products by policymakers
(public references)Uptake by other influential
elites editorial boards, columnists, media
commentatorsUptake by political pressure groups
and other civic actors Cumulative media
references to research productsReflection of
research products in policy statements and
documents...conceptual and textual reflections
Anecdotal Data
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Example 1 CEIP and Iraq War

• CEIP floated a trial balloon for an innovation
  in monitoring and inspection policy that would
  have used armed force to achieve access and
  transparency for arms control and disarmament
  purposes, but would not have entailed declaring
  war and occupation of Iraq.

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Example 1 CEIP and Iraq War

• Bush Administration had to respond
• UN allies floated the idea after briefings
• Congressional testimony
• Media coverage

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TTT Example 2 Heritage

• change mental maps
• printer friendly pocket cards

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Virtual Think Tanks Transnational Think Nets

• Enabling conditions
• Internet globalization

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Transnational Think Nets

• global public policy networks
• single issue global social movements
• diasporic networks
• transecting transnational networks

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Key Concepts for Transnational Think Nets

• the information milieu of the global public
  sphere is the critical domain for policy
  articulation and implementation
• because it contains the common knowledge and
  shared reference points that are critical to
  successful negotiation
• seek to identify natural affines that share weak
  links
• solution to the small worlds problem

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INFOAXIOM 2 www.infoaxioms.org

• Common Knowledge and Networks
• Speed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links
  (less processing, less distance, fastest
  communication in weakly coupled networks)

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GLOBAL PUBLIC POLICY NETWORKS

• Example 1. World Commission on Dams
• Example 2. The World Commission on Water
• multi-sectoral, single-issue, static, even
  bureaucratic

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Transnational Think-Nets

• communicate across borders and behind the scenes
• speak truth to power
• top quality information and analysis
• Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy,
  insight (especially early warning of pending
  events, emerging issues, or anomalies in
  conventional perspectives
• connectivity to networked policymakers.

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Transnational Think-Nets

• Multi-sectoral
• Cross-issues (multi-dimensional)
• Diasporic
• Nodal networked
• Sustainability, Insecurity, Dislocation,
  Poverty, Governance

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The Global Collaborative webspace
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The Initiative

• Activity that has a discernible, measurable,
  tangible impact on global problem that prefigures
  global solution over 2 years
• Deep research on solutions and strategies
• Networking, common knowledge, communication,
  coordination, collaboration
• Embracing Uncertainty

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Edge colors reveal the relationships between the
nodes at their endpoints. Dark gray edges
indicate that the nodes at the endpoints are
closely related, and light gray that the
relationship is more loose.                     
                                                  
                               When one moves the
mouse over a node, for instance "Levi Strauss" in
the diagram at left, one sees the gray edges
colored blue and red. A red edge indicates that
when one does a google similar-page for the
source site, i.e levi.com , the target site,
guess.com will appear on Levi's similar page
list. A blue edge indicates the reverse
relationship, for instance that when one does a
search on dockers.com that levi.com will appear
on Dockers similar page list. Both red and blue
edges can be present simultaneously as is the
case between Levi and Dockers.