Office of Financial Management OFM Population Forecast

1
Office of Financial Management (OFM)Population
Forecast

• Prepared for the Caseload Forecast Council
  Meeting
• November 13, 2009
• OFM - Forecasting Division

2
OFMs State Population ForecastAbout the Method

• OFMs state population forecast is produced with
  the Cohort Component Change Model.
• The forecast base uses Census 2000 single year of
  age population by gender.
• These age/gender specific cohorts are aged
  forward in time using specific assumptions about
  births, deaths, and migration.
• Two factors contribute to population growth
  natural increase and net migration. The
  projected births minus the projected deaths give
  us the projected natural increase. By adding
  projected net migration we obtain the total
  growth each year.

3
Births and Total Fertility Rates (Average
Lifetime Births Per Woman)
Fertility While the actual births are used
through 2008, the fertility projections follow
U.S. Census Bureau national assumptions with
adjustments made for historical differences.
Birth rates have been relatively stable at about
two births per womans life time. Annual births
are currently about 90,500 and are expected to
increase to about 100,300 by 2024 and steadily
increase to103,400 by 2030. The main contributor
to birth increase is the fact that child-bearing
age women is expected to grow an average 0.7 per
year between 2010 and 2030.
4
Total Population and Components of Change
Mortality and natural increase Natural increase
is expected to decline from the current 41,800
level to 27,600 by 2030. This is because while
the birth rates continue to stay steady, we are
expecting death rates to increase from 7.6 per
1,000 population to 9.1. All the baby boomers
are turning 65 and over between 2011 and 2029,
this aging cohort is expecting to tremendously
increase the population at the risk.
5
OFMs Migration Model Goodness-of-Fit
OFMs migration model relates the attractiveness
of Washingtons employment opportunities to job
markets in California and the nation as a whole.
During the current recession, even though
Washington is still doing relatively better than
California and the nation, the negative job
growth offers very limited opportunities for
people to relocate to the state.
6
Net Migration Forecast Comparison 2008 vs. 2009
Short term migration is projected by the
econometric, Cohort Component Method II and
linear interpolation of migration history.
7
Annual Population Change and Net Migration
Migration has been a large part of Washingtons
growth. Near-term migration levels play a large
role in driving the states population based
budget expenditures.
8
Annual Change in Population by Selected Age Groups
Forecast
Ages 17 thru 22
Forecast
Ages 5 thru 17
Ages 85 and over
Ages 65 and over
Forecast
Forecast
Note Selected adjustments to age data.
9
Projected Change in Budget Driver
Populations 2009 - 2013
Demographics affect major budget areas, but
demographic effects are often overwhelmed by
policy choices, economic factors, and social
conditions.
Ages 12-17
Males Ages 18-39
General Population
Ages 85
Children Ages 0-17
Ages 17-29
Ages 5-17
10
The Boomers Impact on K-12 Past and Future
Just as the Boomers and their children challenged
the K-12 system with their numbers, so will their
grandchildren. The next increase in K-12
enrollment is expected to begin around 2012-2013
.