GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics

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GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics

• Accelerated Release of Data for 2008

Sharon D. Panek
Association of Public Data Users Online December
10, 2009
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BEA Introduced Accelerated Statistics of GDP by
Metropolitan Area

• Accelerated release of statistics by one year
• MSAs represent 90 percent of U.S. GDP
• Reflects BEAs commitment to make accounts more
  responsive, timely, relevant and accurate
• Measures final goods and services and is
  consistent with BEAs national and regional
  accounts

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Overview of Methodology

• Simple and transparent
• Relies heavily on industry earnings data which
  represent 64 percent of GDP
• Fully integrated with other statistics prepared
  by BEA

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Estimation Formula

• Equation for statistics
• Sum of gross county product controlled to
  GDP-by-state statistics
• Chained-dollar GDP by metropolitan area computed
  with national deflators

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Acceleration Formula

• Equation for accelerated statistics
• Sum of gross county product controlled to
  GDP-by-state statistics

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Evaluation Tools

• Internal sources
• GDP by state
• Earnings by place of work
• Personal income by place of residence
• Location quotients
• External sources
• Standard Poors CompuStat Database
• Global Insight and Moodys Economy.com
• Numerous industry and local government websites

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Economy.Com GMP Compared to BEA GDP by
Metropolitan Area, 2007
Source September 2008 Moodys Economy.com data
release. Note The 45 degree reference line
indicates where points would be located if
Economy.com GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area
were equal. Values are shown in millions of
current dollars.
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Global Insights GMP Compared to BEA GDP by
Metropolitan Area, 2007
Source GMP The Engine of Americas Growth,
January 2007. Prepared for the U.S. Conference
of Mayors by Global Insight. Note The 45 degree
reference line indicates where points would be
located if Global Insight GMP and BEA GDP by
metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown
in billions of current dollars.
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Metropolitan Areas in Perspective

• New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA
  ranked 2nd among states and 12th among countries1
• Current-dollar GDP for the Nation was 14.2
  trillion it was 1.8 trillion for California,
  the largest state

1 World Development Indicators database, World
Bank, August 24, 2009.
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Common Discussion Topics

• Size of the local economy
• Comparisons to other metropolitan areas, states,
  or the Nation
• Growth (or decline in the local economy)
• Industries driving a metropolitan areas growth
  or decline
• The impact of natural disasters on a metropolitan
  economy

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Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2008(Ranked by
GDP by Metropolitan Area, Earnings, and Personal
Income)
Source August 2009 accelerated metropolitan
area personal income release which is reported
for 2008 OMB metropolitan statistical area
definitions. 1 Rank for each series is based on
current-dollar statistics.
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Challenges

• Data sources for GDP-by-state may not be
  available for MSAs
• Correlation of earnings and output may not be
  strong for some capital-intensive industries
• State relationship of GDP to earnings may not
  apply to all MSAs
• Earnings data are not available for years prior
  to 2001

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GDP by Metropolitan Area Future Work

• Monitor accuracy of GDP-by-metropolitan-area
  statistics
• Further research to refine statistics, if
  appropriate and feasible

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Contact Information

• Sharon D. Panek, Chief
• GDP by State Services Section
• Regional Product Division
• sharon.panek_at_bea.gov
• [phone] (phone)
• [phone] (fax)