American Public Opinion

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American Public Opinion
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What is Public Opinion?

• ? the aggregate set of individual political
  opinions, attitudes, and preferences of the
  adult population on matters of relevance to
  government (Bob Erikson and Kent Tedin)

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What Shapes Public Opinion?

• Political Socialization ? the life-long learning
  of political values, beliefs, and attitudes
• Sources of Public Opinion
• 1. Social Institutions
• a.) Family
• b.) Religion
• c.) Educational Institutions
• d.) Media
• e.) Generational Effects
• f.) Life-cycle Effects

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More Sources of Public Opinion

• 2.) Race/Ethnicity
• 3.) Gender
• 4.) Political Ideology/Partisanship
• 5.) Conscious, Strategic Choice based on
  Experience and Self-Interest
• 6.) Innate Predispositions/Tendencies

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Education is Correlated with Political Knowledge
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Education is Correlated with Tolerance
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Socio-Demographic Group Differences
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Diversity Variety Different Attributes
Associated with Different Opinions
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Black-White Differential Attitudes over Race
Relations and Policy
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Ordinary Folks are Less Ideological than Elites
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The Art and Science of Public Opinion

• 1.) Measurement of Public Opinion
• a.) measurement has improved over time
• b.) increased demand and increased supply of
  surveys and polls
• 2.) A penny for your thought?
• a.) limited political information/knowledge
  among the public
• b.) unstable, inconsistent individual opinions
• c.) ideological-elites and nonideological-masses
• d.) cognitive biases and other issues
• 3. Difference between aggregate and individual
  public opinion

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Americans Limited Political Sophistication
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The PolicyPublic Opinion Connection

• 1.) Cannot really use polls/surveys to directly
  govern
• a.) public opinion may lack clarity
• b.) difficult to truly know where the public
  stands
• c.) no easy way to translate poll results into
  actual policies
• 2.) There may be an eventual alignment between
  public opinion and public policy
• 3.) Nevertheless, public opinion nourishes
  democracy

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Policy Preferences of the Public (1952-2000)
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What is the Political Usefulness of Polls?

• 1.) To understand/know what the public thinks
• 2.) To know the boundaries of what the public is
  willing to support/oppose
• 3.) To better market policy proposals
• 4.) To make public officials more responsive
• 5.) To educate/inform the public
• 6.) To add greater legitimacy and credibility to
  what government does or does not do
• 7.) To try to advance nefarious purposes

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Things to Keep in Mind About Polls

• 1. Know What is the Purpose of a Poll and Who is
  conducting it
• 2. What questions are asked and How they are
  asked matters
• 3. Context of a Survey/Polls Administration
  Makes a Difference
• 4. Understand Key Components (e.g. who are
  included in the sample of respondents how were
  they selected) of a Poll
• 5. Evaluating the Results
• a.) Affected by how results are presented
• b.) Keep a careful perspective (e.g. do not
  overestimate)
• c.) Realize that uncertainty cannot be eliminated