Differential Diagnosis More than just rolling the dice

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DR. GREGORY HOUSE (Hugh Laurie) is devoid of
bedside manner and wouldnt even talk to his
patients if he could get away with it. Dealing
with his own constant physical pain, he uses a
cane that seems to punctuate his acerbic,
brutally honest demeanor. While his behavior can
border on antisocial, House is a maverick
physician whose unconventional thinking and
flawless instincts have afforded him a great deal
of respect. An infectious disease specialist,
hes a brilliant diagnostician who loves the
challenges of the medical puzzles he must solve
in order to save lives. Houses roster of medical
cases are the inexplicable ones other doctors
cant solve, and he has assembled an elite team
of young medical experts to help him in his
effort to solve these diagnostic mysteries.
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Differential Diagnosis-More than just rolling
the diceScott A. Fields, M.D.
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Greek Mythology-craps game for the universe

• Zeus won the heavens
• Poseidon won the seas
• Hades lost

http//www.math.utk.edu/vasili/GR_link/Greek_myth
/greek_myth.html
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Games of chance vs Games of skill

• Games of fate - mathematical probability -
  timing is the variable
• Games of skill - who will win

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Games of skill

• Bookkeeping
• Forecasting

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Probability analysis

• Listing of possible outcomes

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Statistical inference

• Inferring a global estimate from a sample of data
• Graunt 1665

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New theory on measurement of risk. Bernoulli,
1738

• Any decision about risk includes
• objective facts
• subjective analysis about the desirability of the
  outcome.
• Utility theory - maximize usefulness or
  satisfaction - rather than expected value

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The utility resulting from any small increase in
wealth will be inversely proportionate to the
quantity of goods possessed
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Uncertainty

• When information is correct but an event fails to
  happen
• When information is incorrect and something that
  isnt supposed to occurs happens

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