The Delphi Technique

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The Delphi Technique

• Bernie Coens, Jessica Remington, Ashley Owen,
  Roger Mattson

Small Group Communications September 28, 2005
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Definition

• The Delphi Technique is a method for gathering
  opinions from a group of geographically dispersed
  experts to reach a consensus through the use of
  multiple questionnaires without holding a group
  meeting.

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Historical Background

• RAND Corporation
• 1960s
• Technological Forecasting
• Helmer and Dalkey
• Gordon
• New applications

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Issue Selection
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
Collect and Analyze Results
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
Collect and Analyze Results
Consensus?
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
Collect and Analyze Results
Yes
Consensus?
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
Collect and Analyze Results
Yes
Consensus?
No
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Issue Selection
Panel Selection
Development and Distribution of Questionnaire
Collect and Analyze Results
Yes
Consensus?
Prepare New Questionnaire
No
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Issue Selection

• Pre-selected or Chosen
• Researchers Proficiency
• Resources Available

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Panel Selection

• Pre-determined Qualifications
• Variety of Perspectives
• Different Personalities

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Development Distribution of Questionnaire

• First Unstructured
• Free Responses

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Collect and Analyze Data

• Deadline
• Analyze

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Consensus?

• Yes
• Final Report

• No
• Conduct New Questionnaire

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Prepare New Questionnaire

• More Specific
• Add Strengths and Weaknesses and Clarifications

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Advantages

• Efficiency
• Cost Effectiveness
• Validity
• Respondents Isolated
• Expert Consensus

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Disadvantages

• Lack of Knowledge
• Not Respected
• Time
• Facilitator Bias
• Simplification of Issue

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Exercise in Delphi Technique
Deadline Monday, October 3, by the end of class
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Bibliography

• Beech, B. (1999). Go the extra mile-Use the
  delphi technique. Journal of Nursing Management,
  7, 281-288.
• Harris, T.E., Sherblom, J.C. (2005).
  Creativity in the small group process. Small
  group and team communication (pp. 224-225). New
  York, NY Pearson Education, Inc.
• Hasson, F., Keeney, S., McKanna, H. (2000).
  Research guidelines for delphi survey technique.
  Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32(4), 1008-1016.
• Phillips, R. New application for the delphi
  technique, 1-3.
• Powell, C. (2003). The delphi technique Myths
  and realities. Journal of Advanced Nursing,
  41(4), 376-382.
• Sackman, H. (1974). Delphi assessment Expert
  opinion, forecasting, and group process. United
  States Air Force Project RAND.
• The delphi method. Retrieved September 14, 2005.
  Web site http//www.ryerson.ca/mjoppe/Research
  Process/841TheDelphiMethod.htm
• The delphi method. Retrieved September 19, 2005.
  Web site http//www.iit.edu/it/delphi.html

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