Is it all Hot Air

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Is it all Hot Air?
Climate Change, Global Warming The Pacific
Northwest
Climate Change Outreach Project Presentation
given in Roseburg, Oregon May 2006 Institute for
Natural Resources Oregon State University
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Purpose of this Talk
Provide relevant and reliable science-based
information about climate change, its causes and
its impacts on the Pacific Northwest
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Reliable and Relevant Information
To make up our own minds about whether or not
climate change global warming is real and if
it is real, to decide whether or not it matters
to me and if it does matter to me, to help
decide what to do about it as an individual, as a
community, as a State and as a nation.
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Reliable Information

• Unbiased source
• Uses references so we can determine
• Quality
• Timeliness

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Relevant Information

• Relates to peoples personal or their families
  wealth, health and happiness
• Hierarchical from local, to regional to national
  to international
• Shared concern about
• Disadvantaged people
• Charismatic wildlife and ecosystems (rainforest,
  tundra, coral reefs) as indicators of ecosystem
  health

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The Climate Change Story Covers

• Trends
• Causes
• Predictions
• Impacts

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Trends
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Global Climate Change Over the Last 100 Yrs
The earths surface has warmed 1.1F since 1900
Source US National Climate Data Center 2001
Persistent changes in global rainfall patterns
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Alternate Views on Trends
Antarctic sea ice has increased in extent from
1978 to 2005
Arctic air temperatures are no higher now than
they were in the 1930s and 1940s
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Alternate Views on Trends
Regional Temperatures havent gone up everywhere
Source Taylor 2006
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Reconciling Differences
Differences in trends and their interpretation
can only be reconciled through debate and
synthesis within the science community Excerpts
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PNW Climate Change Over the Last 100 Yrs
Rainfall increases in eastern Washington
southern BC
Region wide warming of about 1.1F in 100 years
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Global Climate Change over 1000s of Yrs
Source Alley 2004
Source Climate Impacts Group, University of
Washington
Global climate has varied over 100,000s and
10,000s of years
Change in last 100 yrs is not unusual in history
of Earths climate
Change in last 100 yrs is dramatic compared to
climate record in last 1,000 years
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Causes
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Changes in Emissions and Global Temperature
Since 1750 atmospheric CO2 has increased 34
In the last 100 years global temperature has
increased 1.1F
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Are We Causing Global Warming?
Modeling of air temperature and sea temperature
shows that observed increases in temperature
cannot be explained by natural influences alone
Only once human sourced CO2 is added in can we
explain observed changes in global temperature
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Global Predictions
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Global Warming in the 21st Century
We do know the 21st century will be warmer
Projections of future greenhouse gas
concentrations are highly uncertain and this
makes precise prediction of global warming
difficult The projected increase in global
average temperature by 2100, relative to 1990,
ranges from 2.5 to 10 F
Source IPCC 2001
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Does This Extra Heat Matter?
Currents in the Earths oceans and atmosphere
take heat from the tropics to the poles
Without this circulation the tropics would be
much hotter and poles much colder
Heat drives this circulation. More or less heat
changes global ocean and atmospheric circulation
affecting regional climates including the Pacific
Northwest
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Extra Heat and Hurricanes Is there a link?
No evidence of link between global warming and
the frequency of hurricanes
Relationship between sea temperature and the
intensity (15 increase wind speed) and duration
(60 increase in life time) of hurricanes since
1970
Hurricanes act as giant egg beaters mixing warm
surface water with deeper cold water
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Global Sea Level Rise
Models predict varying degrees of sea level rise
through thermal expansion of the oceans and
eventually melt water Local sea level rise will
vary due to the influence to local factors such
as tectonic uplift and prevailing ocean conditions
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PNW Predictions
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Climate Influences on the PNW Topography
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Climate Influences on the PNW Ocean
El Niño/ Southern Oscillation
El Niño winters tend to be warmer and drier than
average. La Niña winters tend to be cooler and
wetter than average
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm phase PDO winters tend to be warmer and
drier than average. Cool phase PDO winters tend
to be cooler and wetter than average
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21st Century Changes in PNW Temperature
Comparison of Temp Variability
All climate models project that PNW temperatures
will increase
The projected increases exceed the year to year
variability experienced during the 20th century
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21st Century Changes in PNW Precipitation
Many climate models project a slight increase in
precipitation especially during winter months
Natural year-to-year and decade-to-decade
fluctuations in precipitation are likely to be
more pronounced than longer term trends
associated with global warming
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2001 2005 Predictions of PNW Climate
In 2005 new more sophisticated global climate
change models were released The University of
Washington used the new models to look at PNW
climate predictions The new models show smaller
temperature increases and drier 2020
precipitation projections The new models show
greater warming in summer than in winter The old
models showed more winter than summer warming
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PNW Impacts
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Scientific Consensus on Impacts on the PNW from
Global Warming

• Negative impacts on PNW water resources including
  reduction in snowpack
• Negative impacts on endangered salmon
• Impacts on east-side forests with slower growth
  and more fires from warmer summers
• Loss of some local populations of wildlife and
  plants if climate shifts are faster than ability
  to migrate
• Increased beach erosion and beach loss along the
  Northern Oregon Coast

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Climate Impacts PNW Water Resources
Warmer 21st century temperatures mean
Predicted Columbia River Flows in 2040
Less winter snow accumulation Higher winter
stream flows Earlier spring snowmelt Earlier peak
spring stream flow Lower summer stream flows
Source Climate Impacts Group, University of
Washington
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Water Resource Case I Water Allocation Conflicts

• Earlier peak river flows, lower summer
  streamflows, and lengthened summer low flow will
  heighten competition over water use for
• Hydropower generation
• Instream flow protection for endangered species
• Irrigation
• Recreation

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Water Resource Case II Salmon
Changes in annual patterns of stream flow will be
detrimental to salmon rearing, migration and
spawning in some transient river systems
Increased water temperatures in summer may exceed
the tolerable limits for trout and salmon
Endangered Species Act implications for power
generation irrigation through higher in-stream
flow standards
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Water Resource Case III Snow Pack and Skiing
Warmer winter temperatures mean later opening
dates, shorter seasons and more rainy days for
ski areas below 5,000
Latest climate models suggest the worst impacts
could be seen later than previously thought
Source Nolan 2006
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Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion
Source IPCC 2001
Predicted sea level rise will increase coastal
erosion hazards along the northern Oregon Coast
This hazard is most severe occur during El Niño
events when local sea level is higher
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Adapting to Climate Change in the PNW

• Recognize the past is not a reliable guide to the
  future
• Integrate climate change considerations into
  planning processes including honest appraisal of
  current policies in light of climate change
• Monitor regional climate and resources for medium
  and long-term change
• Expect the unexpected and plan to be adaptable

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Mitigating Climate Change in the PNW

• Adopt mitigation strategies that make economic
  sense as well as environmental sense
• Green energy generation initiatives
• Fuel and energy efficiency
• Water resource conservation measures

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Summary

• Climate change is happening globally in the PNW
• Humans are contributing to global warming and
  climate change in a measurable way
• The quickest greatest impact in the PNW will be
  on water resources due to more rain and less snow
  at lower elevations
• These water resource impacts will cause increased
  conflict over water for irrigation, instream
  flows and electricity generation
• IF we exercise foresight now through sound
  planning and use of readily available technology,
  the PNW is well placed to deal with global
  warming climate change
• Other parts of the USA, the world and its
  ecosystems may not be so fortunate

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Greenhouse Gas Reduction StrategiesMeasures
either (a) save energy costs up front, or (b) are
investments with both economic and environmental
returns. They can also create product/service
sales opportunities for Oregon companies

• Energy efficiency in vehicles, buildings,
  equipment
• More efficient materials, packaging, land uses
• Replace fossil fuel generation with wind, solar,
  biomass
• Replace gasoline/diesel with biofuels
• Increase biological sequestration (farm and
  forest carbon capture storage)
• Source Governors Advisory Task Force on Global
  Warming

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Global Warming Adaptation StrategiesFundamentals
of adaptation (1) Net costs with no positive
returns (2) costs keep going up so long as
greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are
not arrested and reversed. There is no leveling
off point.

• Storms/floods levees, seawalls,
  residential/business and infrastructure
  (highways) relocation, higher-capacity
  storm-water overflow management facilities
• Public health insect control, tropical disease
  treatments, more efficient home/business air
  conditioning, more air-quality alert days
  possible driving restrictions
• Agriculture Shift to warm climate crops needing
  less summer moisture
• Forests Fuels reduction projects,
  fire-fighting, less public access, shift to new,
  small-diameter tree species for forest products
• Energy New summer electric generation needed to
  replace lost summer hydro, and to meet growing
  a/c loads
• Recreation Shortened ski seasons, possible
  restricted forest access for hiking/hunting due
  to increased fire risk

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Three Questions
1. Does climate change matter? (How much does
climate change matter?) 2. Why do you feel that
way? (What is it about climate change that you
think is important? What effects or information
led you to feel that way?) 3. What do you think
we should be doing about climate change, if
anything?
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Climate Impacts in the PNW from Global Warming

• We have the most confidence about the impact of
  global warming on the PNWs water resources
• These impacts are generally negative and are the
  largest of any of the climate change impacts