Broadcasting Uncertainty

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Broadcasting Uncertainty
What are some ideas that will help communicate
the uncertainty of a forecast while still
remaining authoritative?
By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
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A if certain
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
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A if certain B fairly certain
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
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A if certain B fairly certain C could
go either way
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
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A if certain B fairly certain C could
go either way D anybodys guess
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Yes !
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Choose one forecast and stick with it !
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Hope its correct.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Chances are 50 50to less than 100.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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When Im right, no one remembers when Im wrong
no one forgets.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Or
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Weaken Credibility?
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Gee, I wish I could have a job and be wrong so
often.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Remember that baseball players have to get a hit
only one time out of three to make it to the
Hall of Fame!
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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No
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Present multiple scenarios
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Weaken Credibility?
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If time does not allow for this, choose one and
follow the Yes column.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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If time DOES allow for this, the audience can
help verify the options.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Comments will be, He or She said that this
might happen..
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Comments will be, He or She said that this
might happen, and it did!
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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This will give the audience ownership of the
forecast. It will invite them in as part of the
decision making process.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Rain?
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Midwest forecasters Rule of Thumb Use the 540
thickness
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Not always 100
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Rain seldom needs extreme accuracy, but snow.?
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
10, 6-12, 8-12, over 10, over 12, 1 foot or
more
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
All of the above and then some
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Drifting vs. not
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Lake enhanced, or not
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is an AFTERcast
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is an AFTERcast Snow overnight,
accumulating between a trace and over 20 inches
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Believable?
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is the verification
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is the verification
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Tease future Broadcasts or Briefings
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
At 6 tease the 10 or 11 pm broadcast
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
At 10 or 11 pm tease the morning broadcast
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Give the viewer a reason to come back for more
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
In some cases tease your broadcast on another
outlet
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Such as your website or radio
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
Extravagance or Out on a Limb may work in the
short term, but is detrimental in the long run.
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
Good conservative science works best over a
career.
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Broadcasting Uncertainty
Thank you. Questions and Comments?
By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist