WestMap The Western Climate Mapping Initiative

1
WestMapThe Western Climate Mapping Initiative

• Western Climate Mapping Consortium
• Consortium Co-Chairs
• Andrew Comrie, University of Arizona
• Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute and
  Western Regional Climate Center
• Chris Daly, Oregon State University
• Organizing Membership
• University of Arizona Climate Assessment of the
  Southwest (UA)
• Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)
• Spatial Climate Analysis Service Oregon State
  University (OSU)
• USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
  (NRCS)
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography California
  Applications Program (Scripps/CAP)
• NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC)

2
WestMap Aims

• 50-100 years, 1 km gridded, monthly climate
  observations, continuously updated
• Provide to data users stakeholders
• online analysis tools
• associated error/accuracy estimates
• educational resources

3
(No Transcript)
4
Background

• Very high stakeholder demand for these kinds of
  climate data
• noted by the NOAA-funded Regional Integrated
  Science and Assessment (RISA) projects across the
  west (e.g., CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for
  the Southwest)
• Main WestMap focus on a western US domain
• Large demand and complex climate mapping
  challenges in the West
• fine scale topographic variations
• extensive high elevation mountain ranges
• deserts
• coastal boundary regions
• interior valleys
• rain shadows
• data availability
• poor station distribution
• May evolve to
• national/international
• northern Mexico and western Canada
• daily data, but not initially

5
Courtesy Tim Owen, NCDC
6
Product Applications

• Five key areas
• drought mitigation/monitoring, e.g.
• complement and enhance developing drought
  management initiatives and monitoring programs
• in turn, these activities will help future
  mapping through identifying gaps/problems in the
  present data sets
• climate variability
• water management
• global change modeling/assessment
• forecasts (initial conditions) and downscaling of
  forecasts (limits of predictability, model
  verification)
• WestMap impact will be very wide
• Very large number of likely users researchers,
  decision-makers, resource mgrs, etc.
• integral climate mapping web interface for ease
  of access

7
Some selected potential users of WestMap data
8
3 Major WestMap Components
algorithm improvements and data updates
better access and tools increased dataset utility
improved online tools and understanding of data
uncertainty
9
WestMap Data Development

• PRISM (Parameter-Elevation Regressions on
  Independent Slopes Model)
• developed by Spatial Climate Analysis Services /
  Oregon Climate Services at Oregon State
  University
• uses point data, a digital elevation model (DEM),
  and other spatial datasets to generate gridded
  estimates of annual, monthly, and event based
  climatic parameters
• a coordinated set of rules, decisions, and
  calculations designed to approximate the
  decision-making processes that an expert
  operational climatologist would make in creating
  a climate map
• currently has the most advanced algorithms for
  fine-scale mapping of climate data
• QA via quantitative measures and expert review
• recently used to create a 4km scale gridded data
  set of monthly minimum temperature, maximum
  temperature, and precipitation for the
  conterminous United States covering the period of
  1895-2001
• official updates of the Climate Atlas of the
  United States
• USDA precipitation and temperature maps for all
  fifty states
• WestMap intends to take PRISM data one step
  further to create a surface data reanalysis
• analogous to the NCEP reanalysis projects and
  related interfaces
• 1 km-scale monthly surface climate data
• major part of the instrumental record (50 to 100
  years, depending on data constraints)
• provide error estimation and quality assessment
  of the resulting data surfaces
• update the record with as close to real time
  data as possible
• Create the best available form of fine-scale
  climate data for mapping and monitoring
• in short, a fundamental climate data set with a
  multitude of uses
• also enables generation of other derived
  quantities
• will permit data to be aggregated into new
  user-defined polygons rather than climate
  divisions

10
PRISM Modeling Approach
11
Error Accuracy Assessment

• Error/accuracy assessment is important but
  difficult
• e.g., data limitations at higher elevations
  require the use of any and all data points for
  those levels, but this simultaneously constrains
  the application of standard cross-validation
  techniques
• maps with the lowest overall errors not
  necessarily the most accurate, when assessed with
  vegetation patterns, stream flow, expert review,
  and other independent methods
• Will employ multiple quantitative measures and
  other expert and lay review approaches to
  understand and communicate error
• Also important to understand and correct for
  sources of error
• error is both time- and space-dependent
• expect to encounter sources of modeling error
  manifesting themselves at seasonal, interannual
  and decadal scales
• sources of error with spatial variability at
  local and regional scales
• will likely parallel those in the observed
  climate data record
• will need to tease apart those processes
  requiring representation in improved versions of
  the modeling algorithms

12
Data Analyses Diagnostics

• Investigations of patterns and process underlying
  variability and error in the WestMap data will
  also enable us to research a number of related
  complementary and critical questions
• Examples
• fine-scale data response to large-scale
  atmospheric processes
• critical gaps in data coverage
• episode monitoring applications (e.g., drought)
• sub-regional climate variability
• possible climate forecast model implementations
  of WestMap
• data consistency versus accuracy
• data assimilation and mapping
• expert/lay perceptions of climate information and
  delivery
• educational needs

13
Winter Precip Anomalies
14
Data Access

• Primary user interface via WRCC (website, online
  tools, data downloads)
• Data cost approach similar to federally-managed
  climate datasets
• online access at no cost to public sector
  government and educational users (.gov
  .edu)
• optional media (CD, tape, etc.) and large or
  special requests available at nominal cost
• fee structure for other interested users (e.g.,
  private sector)
• Public-private collaboration
• users of free data cannot release them to
  third-parties to circumvent the access
  restrictions
• some PRISM data products are currently marketed
  through a licensing agreement between OSU and a
  private company, Climate Source, Inc.
• this will remain the outlet for private sector
  data delivery
• will provide increased financial support for the
  continued production of up to date climate maps
  for the public and private sector, adding to the
  database over time
• valuable way to continue WestMap growth after
  tools have been developed and public funding
  enters a lower-level, operational phase
• WestMap data storage
• operationally stored at the Western Regional
  Climate Center
• final archival storage at the National Climatic
  Data Center

15
(No Transcript)
16
Visualization Tools

• Cannot overstate the crucial role of
  visualization for data analysis
• Online visualization tools are a cornerstone of
  WestMap development
• leading example NOAA CDCs online tools for the
  NCEP reanalysis data set
• provides ability to manipulate, map, and
  associate data with other information (e.g.,
  climate indices) in real time
• greatly improves the accessibility of the data
  for analysis and download by all categories of
  users
• core reason for the success and widespread use of
  the reanalysis data
• Similarly, WRCC has developed a variety of online
  data plotting tools

• WestMap will capitalize on these activities
• development of specific new tools for spatial and
  temporal analysis
• likely incorporation of WestMap data into above
  data analysis portal sites
• Visualization tools will be developed from the
  outset
• Selected 4 km PRISM data are already publicly
  available
• will form the initial dataset for development of
  WestMap visualization tools while the 1 km data
  are being produced

17
(No Transcript)
18

• Animation
• Zoom
• pixels, polygons
• Time Plots
• Multi-panel display

19
Education/Outreach Resources

• WestMap-type data are intuitive and appealing to
  many users
• especially because they are based on
  observational data
• But, there are important caveats to be
  communicated
• the data are nonetheless synthetic
• appropriate use is contingent upon understanding
  how they were developed
• Also a need to provide educational outreach
  resources
• for K-12, universities and broader stakeholders
• WestMap includes development of interactive
  educational materials
• explain critical metadata, including caveats and
  error estimation
• information resources to enable meaningful data
  interpretation and applications

20
WestMap Consortium Membership Roles

• Unique climate mapping needs challenges of the
  West are the driving forces behind the genesis of
  WestMap
• therefore, WestMap is an initiative undertaken
  by the West and for the West
• Consortium of institutions with extensive
  expertise and experience in western U.S.
  climatological research
• also climate mapping techniques, social science
  of climate impacts, information transfer to
  technical users and stakeholders
• University of Arizona (UA)
• primary project coordination, in collaboration
  with other consortium members
• stakeholder linkages, development of educational
  resources, aspects of data visualization, climate
  variability research, and social science aspects
  of WestMap
• extensive experience working with climate
  information and stakeholders through its RISA
  project, CLIMAS
• Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)
• will host the user interface, data access
  visualization engine
• will continue to be a primary supplier of
  observed climate data to the OSU PRISM system
• will maintain the stored WestMap data products
  and coordinate final archiving via links to NCDC
• Oregon State University (OSU) Spatial Climate
  Analysis Service
• responsible for development, operation
  (production, quality control) and refinement of
  the 1 km PRISM data sets
• continued supply of updated data grids via link
  to Climate Source, Inc.
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps)
• will participate in data quality analyses and
  sub-regional scale climate variability research
• using WestMap data to develop finer scale
  seasonal-annual climate forecasting efforts

21
WestMap Funding Strategy

• Build the WestMap idea, simultaneously obtain
  funding from a range of sources
• wide range of stakeholders and potential users
• many do not have the budgetary resources to
  completely support such an initiative
• thus, define as an initiative that will attract
  partial, leveraged funding for several
  sub-projects
• obtain broad buy-in from multiple agencies /
  institutions
• will better engage the climate data user
  community in funding a common data source
• investigating multiple sources of funding
• federal agencies (e.g., NSF, NOAA, NASA, USDA,
  USGS) and multi-agency initiatives, Western
  Governors Association and/or Congressional
  funding, public-private enterprise programs, and
  others
• given importance for western stakeholders,
  explore RISA resources
• WestMap is a large effort that needs substantial
  financial support
• set of postdocs, programmers, and grad students
  across several institutions
• ideally, 3-5 years of funding on the order of
  200-500K per year
• will support the core development and initial
  operational components of the initiative
• Explore public-private partnership to support
  continued data production
• take advantage of lower level of reliable steady
  support
• follows high-cost development phase
• costs of storing/serving established data sets
  could be partly absorbed into regular operations
• major future upgrades will still need
  conventional funding

22
WestMap Status

• Held an organizational planning meeting
• January 8-9, 2003, hosted by UA/CLIMAS
• established WestMap Consortium
• defined objectives of the WestMap initiative
• Initial efforts now officially underway
• consortium has begun looking for funding partners
• Website coming soon
• CDC lead on ESDIM proposal
• PACLIM, Climate Diagnostics Workshop
• Contacting agencies/program managers