Computing and the Future

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Computing and the Future
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Near Term TrendsSocial Changes?

• Increasing automation
• displaced workers, de-skilling, up-skilling
• IT enables more Outsourcing
• blue collar versus white-collar jobs (including
  IT)
• Telecommuting
• pros cons
• Mobile workers roadwarriors
• Distance Education -- Hype versus Reality
• The Digital Divide disappearing?

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Near Term Trends 2

• Digital Convergence Computers Consumer
  Electronics merging?
• Over-hyped for years but finally happening
• Consolidated devices or collaborating devices?
• PDA / Cell Phone / Camera
• TV / Computer set top boxes, DVRs, XP Media Ed
• HDTV recording?
• Media Hubs
• Home Automation
• Aside the remote control problem
• The marketplace will sort it out, but it will be
  messy.

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Cell Phone/PDA/Camera/Video/MP3?Battling
Form-Factors
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Computer/TV/DVR/DVD Recorderand MP3 JukeboxTV
w/Set Top Box or PC?Tivo
Windows XP Media Center Edition
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Near Term Trends

• VoIP takes off? Vonage Skype
• Continuing penetration of BroadbandThe Last
  Mile problem solves itself? Fiber?
• More multi-PC households, home networks
• More public wireless access points. WiMax
• Pervasive computing
• Smart Homes finally get practical?
• End of the conventional Personal Computer?

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Technologies to Watch

• PCs 64 bit, PCI-Express, SATA
• Portable Storage WarsFlash versus miniature
  Hard Disks
• OLEDs replace LCDs?
• No backlight power(1/3) weight savings
• Flexible displays
• Battery Improvements
• Longer life, Reduced weight bulk
• More capable portable devices
• Nanotechnology for smart materials

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Further Out

• Practical robots? Improved Roomba a start?
• Natural Language computer interfaces (voice)
• AI versus IA Intelligence Amplification tests?
• Brain Interfaces
• The limits of silicon and end of Moores Law?
• DNA computers
• Optical processors
• Quantum computers

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Silicon versus Biological Computers
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CIS 110The Future
Silicon versus Biological Computers -
TRENDS from Hans Moravec