APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 10 Jan 2011

1
Technical Analysis10 Jan 2011
Market commentary

• APF Trading

2
APF Trading

• 9 Battery Road
• 12F Straits Trading Building
• Singapore 049910  
•  
• Jay Ng
• jay.ng_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Glenn Ho
• glenn.ho_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Website
• www.apftrading.com
• www.asiapacfinance.com

3
Wilmar International
4
Wilmar International

• Buy setup completed at the close of last friday
  following the TD Countdown 13 with prices
  respecting resistance perfectly
• A perfected buy setup (indicated by the green
  arrow) increases the probability of a 1-4
  periods, in this case 1-4 weeks of price
  correction. (price increase)
• Tenken Sen crossing below the Kijun Sen above the
  Kumo, a weak bearish crossover

5
Wilmar International

• Kumo is the support for prices
• Bearish crossover is buffered by the Kumo
• Note that the depth of the Kumo is thin
• Depth of the Kumo signifies the strength of the
  support region
• Chikou is also below prices, telling a bear story
  
• The future Kumo is thin and twists downwards

6
Wilmar International

• Path of least resistance is for prices to correct
  for 1-4 bars and continue its descend until
  further price action suggests otherwise.

7
CHINA MERCHANT BANK
8
CHINA MERCHANT BANK

• Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen at Friday's
  close above the Kumo, suggesting a weak bearish
  crossover
• Counter had been on a uptrend with excellent
  support from the Kumo
• Chikou is above prices
• Expect prices to test the support of the Kumo
  with this weak bearish cross.

9
SUMITOMO MITSUI
10
SUMITOMO MITSUI

• Tenkan Sen inches towards the Kijun Sen, prices
  entered the Kumo
• Weak bull crossover
• Chikou above prices
• Prices might face significant resistance within
  this Kumo region (2647.25 - 2840)

11
TOYOTA MOTOR
12
TOYOTA MOTOR

• Tenkan Sen crosses above the Kijun Sen
• Prices entered the Kumo
• Weak bull crossover
• Chikou did move above prices but Kumo depth is
  widening suggesting the resistance is strong

13
MIZUHO FINANCIAL
14
MIZUHO FINANCIAL

• Similar price action to Sumitomo
• Tenkan Sen crossed above the Kijun Sen below the
  Kumo on Friday's close
• Chikou above Kumo
• Kumo is thinning out
• Span A (Orange line) is converging upwards
• Increased probability that prices might break out
  of the Kumo cloud which would further increase
  the probability of a rally

15
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP
16
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

• Prices has been range bound between 20.00 and
  26.00 since Aug 2009
• Well supported by a thick Kumo for 2010
• Kumo is thinning out and support begins to weaken
• Watching closely subsequent developments
  regarding the movement of Chikou and also a
  bearish Kumo breakout following the recent
  Tenkan/Kijun Crossover

17
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP
18
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP

• Beautiful bull trend seems intact other than the
  recent Tenkan/Kijun Crossover
• Crossover is very weak
• Chikou is still sitting nicely above the prices
  and Kumo future is bullish
• Depth of Kumo is consistent, offering very good
  support
• Expect prices to magnet around the Kijun Sen.
  Longer term, prices are skewed towards the upside
  unless prices action dictates otherwise
  subsequently

19
LG CHEM
20
LG CHEM

• Expect the bull rally to continue
• Kumo future with sufficient depth provides solid
  support
• Chikou continues to be higher than prices
• Tenkan Sen stays above the Kijun Sen
• TD Sequential indicated potential buying
  exhaustion
• Momentum continues to kick in and prices break
  higher above the risk level on a qualified basis
  (indicated as a full magenta line instead of
  dotted line).

21
USDIDR
22
USDIDR

• Kumo cloud is thinning out, reducing the
  resistance it offers
• Tenkan Sen is converging towards the Kijun Sen,
  looking for a weak bullish crossover from below
  the Kumo
• Price hovering around Kijun Sen
• Chikou is however still below prices
• Watch this pair closely for near term price
  action developments

23

• APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering
  clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,
  signals, trading systems, execution services and
  trading platforms. The firm also conducts
  research and technical analysis with a focus on
  Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.