Global Change

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Global Change

• Critical issues include
• What is included in global change?
• Should we worry about these changes?
• Why?
• Are humans causing the changes?
• What is our evidence?

Sept 1998
Poster teams
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Global Change Climate
What does this Information tell us? Should we
be concerned?
Yes, why? No, why not?
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Global Change Climate
What does this tell us? What do we need to know
to understand it? What do we need to know to
have confidence in it?
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Global Climate Change Outline

• History of interest in carbon dioxide, greenhouse
  effect and global change
  
• Radiation balance, greenhouse effect, trace
  gases
  
• Global Carbon cycle
• Effects of volcanic eruptions, other forcing
  factors
  
• Global circulation models
• Predictions for the future
• Potential effects of global climate change on
  biological systems
  
• Potentials ways to mitigate
• Uses of forests to mitigate

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Global Change Climate
History of interest in carbon dioxide, greenhouse
effect and global change General Science Phy
sical Sciences Modeling and computers Biolog
ical sciences Integrative efforts

• Interest in what determines climate and weather
• Role of trace gases - Tyndall (1863)
• Arrhenius (Sweden 1880ies) - recognized that
  human activity could lead to increases in CO2.
  
• International Geophysical Year - 1957

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Global Change Climate
Modeling and Technology Realm

• Parallel development in modeling of atmospheric
  processes Institute of Advanced Study -at
  Princeton, NOAA, GFDL
  
• NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
  (NCAR)
  
• NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) -
  Hansen
  
• Oregon State University
• United Kingdom Meteorological Office in Norwich

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Global Change Climate
Modeling and Technology Realm
Rationale Strengths Weaknesses Tests Predictio
ns
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Global Change Climate
Modeling and Technology Realm

• Computer Technology
• Improvements in Understanding via
• Computers
• Models
• Satellite

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Remote Sensing of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean
Properties from Terra

• Provide the first, consistent global snapshot
  of numerous important Earth surface and
  atmospheric characteristics
  
• Improve the ability to detect the human impacts
  on climate by identifying indicators, or
  fingerprints, of human activity that can be
  used to distinguish them from natural
  variability
• A whole group of different satellites with very
  different capabilities

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Examples

• Wavelengths
• Frequency
• Resolution
• Will Smith

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Results I
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Results II
C
Sea Surface temperatures in early May
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Global Change Climate
Research into plants animals

• Sponsorship
• National Science Foundation
• Individual investigator studies -
  organisms/mechanisms
  
• Plant Level Studies IBP Multi-group projects
• NAPAP Program
• LTER
• Boreas
• Genomic Studies
• International and National Global Change Programs

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Global Change Climate
Political - Social - Economic - Cultural

• Political Developments Earth Summit 92
• Kyoto Nov. 1997
• Today's Latest Information (for example, COP 6 at
  The Hague in the Netherlands, 13-24 Nov. 2000.
  
• January 21, 2002, COP 7 Report with Addendums
  http//www.unfccc.int/wnew/index.html
  
• See how many countries have ratified the Kyoto
  Protocol (updated January 23, 2003)
  http//unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html

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Global Change Climate
Radiation balance, greenhouse effect (lots of
detail), trace gases

• Radiation Balance
• Greenhouse effect
• Greenhouse/trace gases
• Carbon dioxide (source for measurements and
  monitoring data)

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Global Change Climate

• Trends

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Global Change Climate

• Other trace gases
• Forcing factors (positive or negative)
• Radiation
• Cloud
• Trace gases
• Aerosols
• Volcanic eruptions
• Potential feedbacks (e.g., with disturbance
  fire)

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Global Change Climate
Solid 81 Safeco fields Gaseous 392 (100)
Carbon cycle