Shift Organization and Responsibility

1
Shift Organization and Responsibility

• Brian Motta
• OCWWS Training Division

2
Main Points

• New World of Forecasting
• Priorities / Situational Awareness
• Shift Configuration
• Flexible Work Chunks
• Shift Management Challenges
• Bad Habits to Watch For
• Making it work in your office
• Discussion Issues

3
Main Points

• Operational Priorities / Situational Awareness
• Shift Configuration
• Overlap
• Shift-change Briefing/Pitfall
• Grid Management
• Forecaster team concept
• Flexible Work Chunks
• Task Divisions
• Programmatic, by Wx Element
• Hard/Floating ST/LT breakpoint
• Shift Divisions
• Media/NDFD/other deadlines
• Bad Habits to Watch For
• Using GFE for Zone Generation Specifically
• Local Office Policiesbetter to coord/collab on
  methodologies
• How to make it work in your office
• Discussion Issues

4
NWS Duty Priorities

• The mission of the NWS, in part, is to provide
  weather and flood warnings, public forecasts and
  advisories for all US, territories, adjacent
  waters, primarily for the protection of life and
  property.
• Therefore, workload priority important
• Warnings, Watches, Advisories
• Mission Critical Observations
• Forecasts, Observations, and Basic Weather Watch
• Non-critical Public Service
• Training, Development, and Focal Point Duties

5
New World of Forecasting

• Use IFPS for meteorologically consistent picture
  of the weather days 1-7
• Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day
• Multiple forecasters may be in data base as
  dictated by weather
• Forecast collaboration rather than coordination

6
New World of Forecasting

• Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent
  picture of the weather for days 1-7
• Grids drive legacy product updates
• Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day
• Multiple forecasters may be in data base as
  dictated by weather
• Forecast collaboration rather than coordination

7
Shift Configuration

• Overlap
• Shift-change Briefings
• Grid Management
• Forecaster team concept

• Whats an event?
• New model guidance that changes thinking
• Dropping first period adding new day 7
• Local customer needs
• Observed weather doesnt match forecast

8
Flexible Work Chunks

• Task/Grid Divisions
• Programmatic, by Wx Element
• Hard/Floating ST/LT breakpoint
• Shift Divisions
• Media/NDFD/other deadlines
• Easier to respond to weather, unplanned events
  on shift

9
Shift Management Challenges

• The Lead needs to LEAD
• Time, data, and people resources must be managed
  each shift
• Everyones time is part of the forecast team pool
• Shift duties and professional development time
  are flexible
• Multiple forecasters in data base
• Real time feedback

10
Shift Management Challenges

• The Lead needs to LEAD
• Time, data, and people resources must be managed
  each shift
• Everyones time is part of the forecast team pool
• Shift duties and professional development time
  are flexible

• Multiple forecasters working on data base
• Real time feedback

11
Bad Habits to Watch

• Shift-change briefing on the grids, not on the
  weather!

• Using GFE for Zone Generation
• Specifically
• Local Office Policiesbetter to
• coordinate on methodologies
• Frequent coordination versus
• collaboration

12
Event Driven Updates

• Scheduled Issuances of legacy products?
• No Updates always current NWS products you
  can count on
• Whats an event?
• New model guidance that changes thinking
• Dropping first period add new day 7
• Local customer needs
• Observed weather doesnt match forecast

13
Verification/Quality Assurance

• What do we look at to determine quality and
  timeliness?
• Whats a late forecast ?

14
Some Things To Look At

• Temporal workload distribution do your shift
  hours match workload
• Division of forecast responsibility
• Collaboration versus coordination
• How can our office get more meteorological
  information to our customers now!
• Product quality feedback to staff

15
Make it work in your office

• Be onboard
• Either IFPS works or we will be out of the
  forecast business
• IFPS is complicated-
• A lot of problems are configuration issues
• Feedback problems and solutions
• Continuous training
• Provide a means for sharing techniques between
  forecasters

16
Make it work in your office

• GFE provides tools now we need more science
• Smart Tools
• Smart initializations
• Avoid re-initialization syndrome
• Forecast nudging (no cancer)
• Prioritize work
• Not going to be doing grids beyond next 6 hrs
  during severe weather
• Different experience levels
• Awareness of shifts at neighboring offices
• Avoiding WOI- forecast decision making
• HMT role

17
Making it work in your office

• GFE provides tools now we need more science
• Smart Tools
• Smart initializations
• Better starting point lessens editing workload
• Avoid re-initialization syndrome
• Forecast nudging (no cancer)
• Prioritize work
• Not going to be doing grids beyond next 6 hrs
  during severe weather
• Forecasters with different experience levels
• Awareness of shifts at neighboring offices
• Avoiding WOI- forecast decision making
• HMT role, other staff roles

18
Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

• Office Management Team must continually reinforce
  the vision
• We dont produce WFO xxx products, we produce
  part of the NWS product suite
• Dont sit there complaining get feedback into
  the stream through Regional channels
• Changes are coming faster than ever before is
  your staff ready to handle that?

19
Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

• Office Team must continually reinforce the vision
• We produce part of NWS product suite
• Temporal workload distribution do your shift
  hours match workload
• Division of forecast responsibility
• Collaboration versus coordination
• How can our office get more meteorological
  information to our customers
• Product quality feedback to staff

20
Discussion / Questions?
1.)