Food Security Pakistan Cliamte Change- Saadullah Ayaz

1
Food Security and Present Threat Posed by
Climate Change
Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010
2
Development Concerns of Pakistan

• Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan
  is classified as poor (World Resource Institute
  2007)
• - Human Development Index is 0.539
• - 74 percent population living under 2 a day
• - GDP 125th in World
• Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP
  and employs 46 population dependent on water
• 3. Low forest cover (4.5) deforestation 0.2-
  0.4 per annum
• Pakistan among the 17 countries facing water
  shortages and is among the 36 countries having
  serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)

3
Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan

• 12th country most vulnerable to climate change
  (Maplecroft 2007)
• Losing at least 5 of GDP each year (may be upto
  20)
• Emission share 0.43 of worlds total (135th
  ranking)
• Temperature rise 0.6 to 1.0C (since early
  1900s) (IPCC 2007)
• Decrease in precipitation10 to 15 (last 40
  years) (IPCC 2007)
• Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the
  next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30
  to 40 (GCISC 2008)

4
Food Security and Pakistan

• 1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at
  extreme risk (Food Security Risk Index, UN
  2009)
• 2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan
  are living below the food poverty line (not
  meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar
  Arif 2007)
• 3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74
  (62) are food deficit in terms of net
  availability (SDPI 2003)
• 4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all
  related to CC) can quickly wipe out large
  quantities of food as it grows or is stored-
  further adding to food insecurity
• 5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less
  than 1 annually (FAO 2006)

5
Climate Change Impacts in relation to
Agriculture and Food Security

• 1. Climate Change will increase variability in
  normal monsoon patterns (GCISC 2008)
• 2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram
  Glaciers than predicated, threatening Indus River
  System Flows (GCISC 2008).
• 3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the
  year 2035 is very high (international Commission
  of Snow and Water, 1999)
• 4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs
  due to rise in snowline (threats to irrigated
  agriculture)
• 5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and
  semi-arid regions resulting in food Insecurity
  due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC
  2008)
• 6. Not much data/ research information available
  for Pakistan

6
Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing
Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan
Temperature (C increase over baseline) Growing Season Length (Days) Growing Season Length (Days) Growing Season Length (Days) Growing Season Length (Days)
Temperature (C increase over baseline) Northern Pakistan Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan Southern Pakistan
Temperature (C increase over baseline) Mountainous Region (Humid) Sub-Mountainous Region (Sub-humid) Plains (Semi-arid) Plains (Arid)
Baseline 246 161 146 137
1 232 155 140 132
2 221 149 135 127
3 211 144 130 123
4 202 138 125 118
5 194 133 121 113
Finding Decreasing Trend in number of days in
Growing season (Source GCISC)
7
Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic
Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature
Source GCISC
8
Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In
Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan
Cropping Year Yield (kg/ ha) change Climate Events Economic Cost (Rs. Mill)
1999-2000 1319 -25 Drought Year 2685.9
2000-01 534 -70 Drought Terminal heat stress 3026.1
2001-02 717 -59 Drought Terminal heat stress 3266.5
2002-03 1310 -25 Drought Year 2281.1
2003-04 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress 2814.0
2004-05 1730 -1 169.0
2005-06 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress 3320.0
2006-07 1755 Bumper Year 0.0
Source Aslam and Asim, 2008
9
Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in
Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Region Share in National Production Baseline Yield (kg per ha) Change in yield in 2080 Change in yield in 2080
Region Share in National Production Baseline Yield (kg per ha) Scenario A2 Scenario B2
(Northern Mountainous) 2 2658 50 40
(Northern Sub-mountainous) 9 3933 -11 -11
(Southern Semi arid Plain) 42 4306 -8 -8
(Southern Arid Plain) 47 4490 -5 -6
Total (Pakistan) 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4
Source GCISC 2008
10
Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to
CC and related factors
Regions Production distribution share in national production Change in yield () Quantity Loss (000 t) Economic Loss (Rs. Mill.)
Northern Mountains 465.9 2 4 186.4 4.43
Northern Sub-mountainous 2096.5 9 -11 -230.6 -5.48
Southern Semi Arid Plains 9783.8 42 -8 -782.7 -18.59
Southern Arid Plains 10948.5 47 -6 -656.9 -15.60
Total 23294.7 -1483.9 -35.24
Source NARC (2008)
11
Salient findings

• 1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as
  whole higher than the expected global average
  increase.
• 2. Projected temperature increase in the north is
  somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.
• 3. Projected temperature increase in winter is
  more than that in summer.
• 4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear
  picture for precipitation change, due to large
  model uncertainties.
• 5. The yields of both wheat and rice will
  decrease everywhere except in the Northern
  Mountainous areas where wheat yield will
  increase.

12
Recommendations

1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to
   international funds
2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water
   reservoir capacity
3. Improved governance structure
4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment,
   ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock
5. Strengthen research base and agricultural
   extension services
6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture
7. Control exponential population growth

13
Recommendations (contd)

• 8. Comprehensive Food Security Strategy- Pro-
  Poor concerns integrated
• 9. Improve access to food, through the
  development of social protection schemes such as
  minimum wage, unemployment
• benefits, food-for-work programmes, basic
  health care and agricultural insurance
• 10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and
  small scale farmers will be extremely important,
• 11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate
  farming practices, reduce cultivation of water
  intensive crops

14

• Thanks

Saadullah Ayaz Coordinator Climate Change/ Clean
Air Initiative for Asian Cities IUCN
Pakistan Email saad.ayaz_at_iucn.org