Climate Change in California

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Climate Change in California
May 7, 2008

• Elissa Lynn
• Senior Meteorologist, CA Dept. Water Resources
• elynn_at_water.ca.gov

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Background

• 17 year TV Meteorologist
• Emmy Award, Literacy Award
• Teacher/ College Instructor
• State Meteorologist Outreach

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Background

• M.S., Atmospheric Sciences
• Thesis Climate Modeling
• B.A., Physics
• Weather/ Climate researcher

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Why so complicated?
Data collection Computer model
variability Feedback mechanisms? What can we do?

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CAs Water Season
of normal to date

• Precipitation 74
• Snowpack 68
• Reservoir Storage 82
• Runoff to April 1 55

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CAs Water Season
of normal to date

• Precipitation 74
• (Northern Sierra 8 Station)
• Snowpack 68
• Reservoir Storage 82
• Runoff to April 1 55

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CAs Water Season
of normal to date

• Precipitation 74
• (Northern Sierra 8 Station)
• Mt. Shasta City
• Shasta Dam
• Mineral
• Brush Creek
• Quincy
• Sierraville
• Pacific House
• Blue Canyon

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Malicious March

• 6th Driest 8 Station Index precip
• 5th Driest Statewide
• 21 Snowpack Reduction
• 50 Sac, SJQ River Runoff

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Anemic April

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Anemic April
8 Station 0.7 18 normal

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Worse than Last Year
37.2
33.7

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Driest Mar/Apr combo

9th 4.7
13th 5.1
Worst 2.3
3rd 3.3
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Driest March/April

Sacramento Redding Stockton Modesto Reno Truckee T
ahoe City (2nd driest)
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DROUGHT?
Hydrologic Ingredients Rainfall Snowpack Run
off Soil Moisture Duration

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DROUGHT?
Hydrologic Ingredients Rainfall Snowpack Run
off Soil Moisture Duration Other Supply
availability Long-range trends Social, Economic
impacts

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DROUGHT?
Hydrologic Ingredients Rainfall Snowpack Run
off Soil Moisture Duration Other Supply
availability Long-range trends Social, Economic
impacts
NOT YET!

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Water Supply IndexMay 1, 2008 Forecasts

• Sacramento River Runoff forecast
• DRY median water year type index
• San Joaquin Valley forecast
• DRY water year type index

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Water Supply IndexMay 1, 2008 Forecasts

• Sacramento River Runoff forecast
• DRY median water year type index
• San Joaquin Valley forecast
• DRY water year type index

Being done today either could slip to
Critical Last year ended Dry, Critical
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Water Year Index Type
Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, Critical
Sacramento San Joaquin
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Water Year Index Type
Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, Critical
Sacramento San Joaquin
1976 1977
Critical Critical Critical Critical
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Water Year Index Type
Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, Critical
Sacramento San Joaquin
1976 1977 1987 1988 1989 90,91,92
Critical Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical Critical
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Water Year Index Type
Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, Critical
Sacramento San Joaquin
1976 1977 1987 1988 1989 90,91,92 2001 2002
Critical Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical
Critical Dry Dry Dry Dry
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Water Year Index Type
Wet, Above Normal, Below Normal, Dry, Critical
Sacramento San Joaquin
1976 1977 1987 1988 1989 90,91,92 2001 2002 2007 2
008
Critical Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical
Critical Dry Critical Critical
Critical Dry Dry Dry Dry Dry
Critical Dry (?) Dry (?)
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Water Year Runoff Forecast Projection
61 of normal
Statewide Water Year Runoff Forecast as of May
1, 2008 Courtesy Snow Surveys Section, DWR
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Water Year Runoff Forecast Projection
Good news!
Average flow projections 15-20 higher than
87-92
Statewide Water Year Runoff Forecast as of May
1, 2008 Courtesy Snow Surveys Section, DWR
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Reservoir StorageOct. 1 estimate
Bad news
65 of normal Reservoir Storage
Courtesy Maury Roos, Chief Hydrologist, DWR
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La Nina

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- Northern California (Highly variable weather
patterns) - Wet October-December - Dry
January-March- Southern California DRY
La Nina in California - So far, not as
predicted!
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Eureka 94San Francisco 81Sacramento 79
Los Angeles 79San Diego 67
2008 Rain Season
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Drought (Soil Moisture) July 3, 2007

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Peak Improvement April 1, 2008

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Worsening Again

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Water SupplyFACTORS
Why so low?
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Water SupplyFACTORS
Why so low?
April 1 Snowpack
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Water SupplyFACTORS
Dry Antecedent Conditions
DRY, CRITICAL last year (Sac, San Joaquin) Dry
Fall October 120 3.6 November
19 1.2 December 86 7.2
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Water SupplyFACTORS
Weird Winter
Cold Storms ALL snow La Nina track - storms
skip the valley - get snow, but little
rain Rainfall only 75 _Low rain-driven runoff
high or low elevation
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Water SupplyFACTORS
Dry, Rough Spring
Moisture starved set up La Nina effect? No
MJO March was cold Snowpack still looked good
on April 1 Sublimation Sunny spring No
additional snow March or April (normally add
10)
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Water SupplyFACTORS
Projection Unknowns
Soil-Moisture Modeling is difficult Will likely
lose more snowmelt to dry ground than other
years with 100 April 1 Snowpack
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Compared to 1976-77
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Climate Change
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Climate Change vs.Global Warming


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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes more/less

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes
more/less Different spatial distribution of rain

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes
more/less Different spatial distribution of
rain Changing snow levels

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes
more/less Different spatial distribution of
rain Changing snow levels Sea-level Rise

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes
more/less Different spatial distribution of
rain Changing snow levels Sea-level Rise Air
Quality

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Climate Change vs.Global Warming

NOT just hotter Precipitation Changes
more/less Different spatial distribution of
rain Changing snow levels Sea-level Rise Air
Quality Atmosphere/Ocean Circulation

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Temperature Trends
Globally 10 warmest years since 1997

128 year record Climatic Data Center
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Temperature Trends
United States 6 of 10 warmest since 1998

Source NASA, NCDC, AMS
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Temperature Trends
California 1934 still hottest

Source CA State Climatologist
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Climate Change
Does not SCALE well Regional Impacts vary Very
hard to model at state or regional level

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change

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Daisy World


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Daisy World


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Daisy World


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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the atmosphere

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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the
atmosphere Some processes poorly understood,
not to mention poorly handled

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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the
atmosphere Some processes poorly understood,
not to mention poorly handled Cant model
things we dont understand

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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the
atmosphere Some processes poorly understood,
not to mention poorly handled Cant model
things we dont understand Long-range trends,
larger-scale answers

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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the
atmosphere Some processes poorly understood,
not to mention poorly handled Cant model
things we dont understand Long-range trends,
larger-scale answers Increased sophistication
over time

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MODELING stuff
Mathematical Equations represent the
atmosphere Some processes poorly understood,
not to mention poorly handled Cant model
things we dont understand Long-range trends,
larger-scale answers Increased sophistication
over time Real World responding faster!

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Figure SPM.4
(CO2)
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IPCC Precipitation Models
2080-2099 vs. 1980-1999
SUMMER projection California LIKELY
Precipitation Decrease (66 of simulations)
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IPCC Precipitation Models
2080-2099 vs. 1980-1999
WINTER projection California Northern Little
change Southern Likely Drier
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Medieval Mega Droughts
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Medieval Mega Droughts
Is the Party OVER?
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Medieval Mega Droughts
900 A.D. 200 year drought 1350 A.D. 150
year drought Runoff 40-75 LOWER!
Scott Stine, Cal State, East Bay
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs Warmer at night Warmer
in winter
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs Warmer at night Warmer
in winter 7 sea level rise
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs Warmer at night Warmer
in winter 7 sea level rise Earlier Snowmelt
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs Warmer at night Warmer
in winter 7 sea level rise Earlier
Snowmelt Snowpack Loss 10 already
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Observed Impactsin California


1o F Increase/ 100 yrs Warmer at night Warmer
in winter 7 sea level rise Earlier
Snowmelt Snowpack Loss 10 already Increasing
River Peak Flows
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CA Mean Temperatures

oF
Source Western Region Climate Center
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Department of Water Resources Areas of Concern
Flood Management Data Collection System
Re-Operation Research Needs Water, Energy,
Emissions Water Management/ Storage Ecosystem
Stewardship

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Climate Change ImpactsDWR Efforts
20-person DWR Climate Matrix Team 336 page
Incorporating/Water Mgmt. (2006) 4 page Public
Information Guide (2007) available
on-line

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Climate Change ImpactsDWR Efforts
Conducting California Climate Data Research,
Monitoring, Assessments Major Policy Document
being drafted (2008) Part of the next CA Water
Plan (2009) Climate Action Team Member

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Changing Climate, Water Wise8 min
DVD

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For California
Past not indicator of future Greater uncertainty
in water supply Solution - NOT just one strategy
Aging infrastructure will be further stressed

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Snowpack Reduction

Source Scripps Institute of Oceanography
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Peak 3-day River Flows



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More as Rain_ bigger flood



New
Historical


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CA temps 1900-1950 vs. 1950-2000



Highs p0.6o F Average p0.9o F Lows p1.4o F
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CA Warming Range Projections
Scripps
14.4 10.8 9 3.6 0 -3.6
Higher

Medium
Temperature Change (F)
Lower
1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
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Sea Level at Golden Gate
Sea Level Rise at Golden Gate Bridge
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Sea Level Rise

• Thermal expansion of the ocean 1
• Melting of polar ice caps, glaciers
• Vertical land movement

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Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
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DWR Recommendations

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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

Fund critical weather monitoring programs
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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

Fund critical weather monitoring programs
Preserve, Enhance, Restore Ecosystem
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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

Fund critical weather monitoring programs
Preserve, Enhance, Restore Ecosystem
Provide sustainable funding for water and
flood management, research, storage
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DWR Recommendations

• Prepare for
• Higher flood flow
• Smaller snowpack
• Longer dry spells, droughts

Fund critical weather monitoring programs
Preserve, Enhance, Restore Ecosystem
Provide sustainable funding for water and
flood management, research, storage
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• Weather and Climate
• Email Newsletter

• http//listhost2.water.ca.gov/mailman/
• listinfo/weather_and_climate_news
• Weekly through the winter
• Storm summaries
• Weather Forecasts
• Other timely information

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Thank You
Steve Nemeth Mike Anderson Jamie Anderson Matt
Winston Dave Rizzardo Art Hinojosa Elizabeth
Morse
Dana Fernandez Eric Butler Cindy Matthews Jeremy
Arrich Crystal Davis Ally Wu John Andrew