Lake Davis Northern Pike Eradication Project

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Lake Davis Northern Pike Eradication Project

• Local Economic Analysis (EIR/EIS)
• Statewide Economic Analysis

Lake Davis Northern Pike Eradication
Project Economics Workshop August 10, 2006
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Economic Studies Analyses

• The Economic Impact on Plumas County of
  Alternative Northern Pike Eradication and
  Management Scenarios for Lake Davis
• Economic Resources section of EIR/EIS
• Statewide Economic Analysis

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Economic Resources (EIR/EIS)
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Resource Topics

• Local economic activity
• Economic output, income, and employment (jobs)
• Fiscal resources (tax revenues)
• Property values
• Value of recreation
• Water supply-related costs

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Use of Information from Chico State Local
Economic Study

• Basic relationships between recreation use and
  economic/fiscal impacts
• Combined economic relationships with recreation
  use projections prepared for EIR/EIS

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Project Alternatives

• No Project / No Action
• Proposed Project / Proposed Action (drawdown to
  15,000 AF)
• Alternative A (powder rotenone)
• Alternative B (drawdown to 5,000 AF)
• Alternative C (drawdown to 35,000 AF)
• Alternative D (no drawdown)
• Alternative E (dewatering)

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Results

• Focus on economic impacts on Plumas County
• Short-term vs. long-term impacts
• Values presented in average annual terms
• Constant 2005 dollars

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Economic Impacts Short-Term
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Economic Impacts Long-Term
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Summary and Key Points

• Short-term adverse economic impacts
• Long-term economic gains

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Economic Studies Analyses

• The Economic Impact on Plumas County of
  Alternative Northern Pike Eradication and
  Management Scenarios for Lake Davis
• Economic Resources section of EIR/EIS
• Statewide Economic Analysis

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StatewideEconomicAnalysis
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Economic Effects of Invasive Species

• Physical effects of invasive species
• Reduced biodiversity and species survival,
  impacts to other natural resources
• Attempts to quantify economic impacts
• 137 billion annually in U.S. (Pimentel 2003)
• Includes 5.4 billion related to invasive fish
• Tied mainly to economic damages and cost
• of control measures

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Purposes of Statewide Study

• To measure the potential statewide economic
  effects of pike escapement
• To help inform decision-makers about the
  potential consequences of not implementing a pike
  eradication project

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Issues Analyzed

• Physical Effects on Fisheries
• Recreational fishing
• Commercial fishing
• Changes in Delta Water Supplies
• Agriculture
• Municipal and Industrial (MI) uses

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Approach to Analysis

• Identify physical changes to affected natural
  resources
• Translate physical changes into direct economic
  impacts
• Estimate indirect economic impacts using an
  economic model of California
• Measure impacts in terms of changes in economic
  production, income, and jobs

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Estimating Physical Changes

• Statewide economic analysis requires estimation
  of
• Changes in recreational and commercial fisheries
• Changes in water supplies from the Delta
• Difficulties in estimating physical changes
• Analysis based on the following scenarios
• 10 decline in fishery populations
• 10 decline in water supplies from Delta

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Recreational Fishing FreshwaterPhysical
Economic Effects

• Species considered steelhead, salmon, trout
• Area of analysis through Sac-S.J. Delta
• Assumes direct relationship between fish numbers,
  catch rate, and angling activity
• Loss of 618,600 freshwater angling days annually
• Loss of 12.1 million in freshwater angling
  expenditures annually

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Recreational Fishing SaltwaterPhysical
Economic Effects

• Species considered salmon and striped bass
• Area of analysis central and northern CA
• Loss of 25,400 saltwater angling days annually
• Loss of 840,000 in saltwater angling
  expenditures annually

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Commercial FishingPhysical Economic Effects

• Species considered Chinook salmon (ocean) and
  commercial species in Delta
• Area of Analysis central and northern CA
• Loss of 631,000 pounds of annual commercial fish
  landings (mainly salmon)
• Loss of 1.75 million in commercial fish value
  annually

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Delta Water SuppliesPhysical Economic Effects

• May affect State Water Project (SWP) and Central
  Valley Project (CVP) water supplies from Delta
• Estimated change in available water supplies
• SWP - loss of 174,000 AF (MI) and 119,600 AF
  (agriculture)
• CVP loss of 262,300 AF (agriculture)
• Impacts on agricultural production and value
• Loss of 152,800 acres of agricultural production
• Loss of 328.6 million in ag. production value
  annually
• Impacts on Municipal and Industrial (MI) users

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Economic Model

• Input-output economic model for California
  (IMPLAN)
• Multiplier (ripple) effect within economy
• Total economic effects
• Direct effects
• Indirect effects (inter-industry linkages)
• Induced effects (changes in household spending)
• Measured in terms of economic output, income,
  and employment (jobs)

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Statewide Economic Effects - Summary
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Statewide Economic Effects - Income
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Summary and Key Points

• Primary sources of economic impacts attributed to
  pike escapement
• Difficulties in estimating physical effects of
  pike escapement used 10 declines in affected
  resources
• Total economic effects (annual)
• Decrease of 557.5 million in economic output
• Decrease of 187.4 million in labor income
• Decrease of 5,693 jobs
• Largest source of economic effects agriculture
• Duration of impacts tied to presence of pike

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Questions and Answers