Title: Avian Influenza What is Happening and How Should We Prepare
1Avian Influenza -What is Happening and How
Should We Prepare?- - - - - - - - -
- John M. Matsen, M.D.
- August 9, 2006
2Influenza Virology
- There are three types of influenza viruses, A,
B, and C. - Only Influenza A viruses are further classified
by subtype on the basis of the two main surface
glycoproteins hemagglutinin (HA) and
neuramininidase (NA). Dx by inhibition tests. - Influenza A subtypes and B viruses are further
classified by strains. (CDC 1/06)
3- DEFINITION
- Avian influenza is an infectious disease caused
by Type A influenza virus strains that commonly
infect poultry and other avian species. The term
is synonymous with bird flu. - The natural reservoir species for avian flu are
ducks, shorebirds and gulls. (USDA)
4TUFTED DUCK
5All type A influenza viruses, including human
strains
- They are genetically labile RNA
- viruses.
- Other RNA viruses are, e.g., HIV, SARS, etc.
- They lack the critical mechanisms for
correcting replication errors. - The genetic composition of the viruses
- changes as they replicate.
6Constant Mutation
- Now with a huge new amount of genetic data, we
have the ability to better understand multigenic
traits for the first time. As they carry RNA
instead of DNA, influenza viruses mutate
constantly because the enzyme that generates RNA
makes frequent mistakes during replication.
(NatureMed 2006 12(258)) - H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented
propensity to acquire genes from viruses
infecting other animal species.
7Avian Flu Virus Makeup
- Only influenza A viruses infect birds, and all
known subtypes of the A viruses can infect
birds. - In the influenza A genetic makeup, there are 6
internal genes plus the HA and NA genes. - A specific gene of these 8 in the 1918 H1N1
virus had the unexpected capacity for sending
the body's immune system into overdrive, causing
inflammation, hemorrhagic pneumonia and death.
8Pathotype Definition
- There are two primary pathotypes of Avian
Influenza virus - the most common is low pathogenic AI (LPAI) which
is found in a few poultry flocks in the United
States and elsewhere every yearusually spread
from wild birds. - the other is the highly pathogenic AI (HPAI),
which is much less common and is associated with
higher mortality in poultry.
9Pathotypes Can Change
- Avian flu viruses of low pathogenicity (LPAI)
can, after circulation for just short periods of
time, in a poultry population, mutate into HPAI. -
- During a 19831984 poultry epidemic in the US,
the H5N2 virus was of low pathogenicity
initially, but within 6 months mutated to become
HPAI, with a mortality approaching 90. - During a 19992001 poultry epidemic in Italy, the
H7N1 virus, initially of low pathogenicity,
mutated within 9 months to a HPAI form.
(WHO)
10- Influenza Viruses Continually Evolve
-
- They continually manifest small changes or
antigenic drift. - Can swap or reassort genetic materials and
merge with other flu viruses - This occasional reassortment process is known
as antigenic shift. - The resulting novel subtype is different from
both parent viruses.
(WHO CDC)
11Avian Flu Spread
- Here, we report that genetically and
antigenically distinct sub lineages of H5N1 virus
have become established in poultry in different
geographical regions of Southeast Asia,
indicating the long-term endemicity of the virus,
and the isolation of H5N1 virus from apparently
healthy migratory birds in southern China.
(PNAS 02/10/06)
12Avian Flu Spread
- The H5N1 bird flu in humans has evolved into
two separate strains, or clades, a development
that will complicate the search for a vaccine and
the prevention of a pandemic, US researchers
reported. - (Garten RJ, et al. International Conference on
Emerging Infectious Diseases. March 2006. Paper
64)
13H5N1 Presence 2006
Nations With Confirmed Cases (070706)
14Confirmed Human H5N1 Cases
7/20/2006
15Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
- The H5N1 strain has now (4/06) been reported in
over 50 countries, and governments throughout the
world have slaughtered the enormous number of
well over 200 million chickens, ducks, other
poultry and wild birds in an effort to keep the
H5N1 virus from spreading.
16PNAS 2/10/06
- Our data show that H5N1 influenza virus has
continued to spread from its established source
in southern China to other regions through
transport of poultry and bird migration. The
identification of regionally distinct sub
lineages contributes to the understanding of the
mechanism for the perpetuation and spread of
H5N1
17Nature 442, 37(6 July 2006)
- As the avian influenza virus H5N1 swept from
Asia across Russia to Europe, Nigeria was the
first country in Africa to report the emergence
of this highly pathogenic virus. Here we analyze
H5N1 sequences in poultry from two different
farms in Lagos state and find that three H5N1
lineages were independently introduced through
routes that coincide with the flight paths of
migratory birds, although independent trade
imports cannot be excluded.
18Avian Influenza A Viruses
Human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 avian
influenza would be cause for great concern, but
WHO investigations have in the past identified
only one likely / probable instance of
human-to-human spread, in 2004, with one
additional possible case in 2005. The increasing
number of reported family clusters of H5N1 in
Asia may mean human-to-human transmission. Some
suspect there have been other human-to-human
transmissions.
19Critical Gene a Suspect in Lethal 1918-1919
Epidemic (1)
- By recreating the influenza virus that killed 50
or more million people in 1918-19, Kobasa, et al.
may have identified the gene that turned it into
one of the most lethal in human history. The
gene, one of eight in the virus, seems to have an
unexpected capacity for sending the body's immune
system into overdrive, causing inflammation,
hemorrhagic pneumonia and death. - (From Kobasa, et al. Nature.
10/07/04)
20Critical Gene a Suspect in Lethal 1918-1919
Epidemic (2)
- Using reverse genetics, they synthesized the
hemagglutinin antigen and the neuraminidase genes
based on the genetic sequences of the 1918-1919
influenza pandemic strain, and in recreating the
virus, they have shown that the resulting virus
is significantly more virulent than the wild-type
strain in a mouse model. - (From Kobasa, et al. Nature. 10/07/04 Hoft, et
al. NEJM. 12/9/04)
21Critical Gene a Suspect in Lethal 1918-1919
Epidemic (3)
- Different strains of influenza virus have
different pathologic effects... These events were
associated with more severe pathological features
and higher mortality, suggesting that overactive
host immune response...may trigger severe
disease. - Death rates in the 1918 pandemic were highest
among young to middle aged adults, and lower in
the elderly. -
(Hoft, et al. NEJM. 12/9/04)
22Resurrected 1918 Flu Virus
- The team resurrected the 1918 pandemic virus
by using gene sequences obtained from
formalin-preserved specimens and from preserved
tissue from a 1918 Inuit flu victim exhumed from
the Alaskan permafrost. The virus is as lethal
as expected, killing mice more quickly than any
other human flu virus known. Recreating the 1918
strain had to be done, and it's produced some
extremely interesting results.
(Tumpey, et al. Science. 2005310(77)).
23Chemokine Storm
- In 1997, avian influenza virus H5N1 was
transmitted directly from chicken to human and
resulted in a severe disease that had a higher
mortality rate in adults than in children. The
characteristic mononuclear leukocyte infiltration
in the lung and the high inflammatory response in
H5N1 infection prompted comparison of the
chemokine responses between influenza
virusinfected adult and neonatal
monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs). The
demonstrated strong induction of chemokines and
their receptors by avian influenza viruses,
particularly in adult MDMs, may account for the
severity of H5N1 disease. (Zhou, et al. J.
Inf. Dis. July1, 06 194.)
24Pathogenicity Change
- Avian flu viruses of low pathogenicity (LPAI)
can, after circulation for just short periods of
time, in a poultry population, mutate into HPAI. -
- During a 19831984 poultry epidemic in the US.,
the H5N2 virus was of low pathogenicity
initially, but within 6 months mutated to become
HPAI, with a mortality approaching 90. - During a 19992001 poultry epidemic in Italy, the
H7N1 virus, initially of low pathogenicity,
mutated within 9 months to a HPAI form.
(WHO)
25- Of the 16 avian influenza virus subtypes, H5N1
is of particular concern for several reasons. - H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented
propensity to acquire genes from viruses
infecting other animal species. - H5N1s ability to cause severe disease in humans
has now been documented. In addition, laboratory
studies have demonstrated that isolates from this
virus have a high pathogenicity for humans. (WHO)
26HOW DEADLY THE PANDEMIC ?
- Even in the best-case scenarios of the next
pandemic, 2 to 7 million people will die and
tens of millions will require medical
attention. - If the next pandemic virus is a very virulent
strain, deaths could be dramatically higher. - The global spread of a pandemic cannot be
stopped, but preparedness will reduce its
impact. (WHO)
27Human-to-human transmission raises demand for DNA
data.
- A strain of avian flu that spread through a
family in Indonesia, killing seven of the eight
people infected, was accumulating mutations as it
spread from person to person, according to
confidential sequence data seen by Nature. - The cluster of cases of the deadly H5N1 strain,
which occurred earlier this year, is the first in
which the World Health Organization (WHO) has
admitted that human-to-human transmission was the
most likely cause of spread. - (See Nature 441, 554555 and 442, 114-115
2006).
28Human-to-Human Transmission
- Sequence data show that mutations were
accumulating as it spread from person to person. - (Nature 442, 114-115 2006)
29Something in the Airway
- The existences of a molecular barrier that may
contribute to transmissability has now been
confirmed in patients. The key is the
distribution in the human airway of the different
receptors preferred by avian and human derived
viruses. The H5N1 virus binds preferentially
to binding molecules that are common in the lower
respiratory tract but are less well represented
in the upper respiratory tract. As a result, the
current H5N1 virus is not readily spread by
droplet infection or cough.
(Editors Comment. Nature. 2006440436)
30Needs Better Transmissibility
- The H5 strain of avian flu has so far failed
to develop a pandemic form. Some virologists fear
it may need only better transmissibility. The new
findings suggest that the virus could acquire
such a property by switching its preference from
the cell receptor found in the lower lung, known
as alpha 2-3, to the receptor found on cells in
the upper airways, known as alpha 2-6.
(Ibid)
312-step Mutation
- A team of scientists at the Scripps Research
Institute reported in Science (March 17, 2006)
that only a couple of mutations might be needed
to enable the H5 virus to make this switch to the
alpha 2-6 receptor. This is the about same number
of mutations made by the H1, H2 and H3 (pandemic)
viruses when they adapted to infect people. Since
(RNA) viruses can mutate fast, a two-mutation
step is not such a big hurdle.
32Dr. Anthony Fauci - 4/11/06
- It is entirely conceivable that this virus is
inherently programmed that it will never be able
to go efficiently from human to human,'' Fauci
said. ''Hopefully the epidemic (in birds) will
burn itself out, which epidemics do, before the
virus evolves the capability of being more
efficient in going from human to human.'
(NYT 4/12/06)
33BMJ 4/15/06
- David King, the UK government's chief
scientific adviser, states that the chances of
the virus mutating into a form that could spread
between humans were "very low," and it was
"totally misleading" to say that such a mutation
was inevitable.
34Current Vaccine Status
- The US already has several million doses of a
bird flu vaccine based on a sample of a virus
taken in 2004 from Vietnam. -
- But researchers have noted the emergence of a
second strain or clade of bird flu. - US-HHS plans to create a new vaccine targeted at
the second variety. "In order to be prepared, we
need to continue to develop new vaccines," HHSs
Mike Leavitt said at an immunization conference
in Atlanta.
(AP 3/6/06)
35Current Vaccine Status
- The second vaccine will be based on a virus
sample taken from Indonesia last year, said Ruben
Donis, leader of the molecular genetics team at
the CDC's influenza branch. The virus
circulating in Indonesia is related to the
Vietnamese virus, but it is not a descendant and
it causes a different immune system response, he
said. (AP 3/6/06)
36WHO Proposed Immediate Prevention Actions
- Because of uncertainties about the disease
situation in poultry and the potentially severe
consequences for human health, WHO has defined
the following proposed actions
37WHO Proposed Immediate Prevention Actions
- 1. Continue to work towards elimination of H5N1
in all poultry populations small holdings as
well as commercial flocks. -
- 2. Promptly report to relevant authorities and
organizations new outbreaks in poultry.
38WHO Proposed Immediate Prevention Actions
- 3. Put in place mechanisms to verify control
progress and eventually monitor freedom from the
disease. - 4. Ensure close collaboration between public
health and agricultural sectors and veterinary
services.
39WHO Proposed Immediate Prevention Actions
- 5. Strengthen communicable disease
- surveillance in humans and collect and
provide the data needed for an accurate
assessment of risks to human health. - 6. Share viruses with laboratories in
- the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance
Network.
40WHO Phase of Pandemic Alert
April 8, 2006
41PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS
- Given the current threat, WHO has urged all
countries to develop or update their influenza
pandemic preparedness plans for responding to the
widespread socioeconomic disruptions that would
result from having large numbers of people unwell
or dying. (WHO)
42CDC, DOS, FDA, NGA, USDA, WHO and all 50 States
- The Web sites of these and other resource and
administrative units all have pertinent pandemic
planning and preparation documents. Units within
our purview, and, indeed, all of our family units
should have copies of these. We have distributed
these widely. All state governments also have
such for distribution.
43HHS and State Governors Holding Pandemic Summits
44Advanced Planning Importance
- "A pandemic flu outbreak in any part of the
world would potentially cripple supply chains,
and dramatically reduce available labor pools,"
the Deloite report said. "In a world where the
global supply chain and real-time inventories
determine most everything we do, down to the food
available for purchase in our grocery stores, one
begins to understand the importance of advanced
planning. (NYT
3/16/06)
45Worst-case Scenario
- SYDNEY, Feb 16/06 (Reuters)A worst-case
scenario bird flu pandemic could wipe US4.4
trillion off global economic output and kill more
than 140 million people, according to an
Australian Lowry Institute for International
Policy report which detailed four scenariosmild,
moderate, severe and ultra pandemicsusing
historical data on previous influenza pandemics
and the economic fallout from the SARS crisis in
Asia in 2003.
46A Nightmare Scenario
- The havoc that would be wrought by an
avian-flu pandemic is so awful that we must act
now to be able to prevent such a disaster. - . . . A pandemic could well bring global,
national and regional economies to an abrupt
halt. . . Imagine the chaos. - (M. Zuckerman, Editor-in-Chief. US News
World Report. June 27, 2005)
47On a Wing and a Prayer. (Edit.) Nature. May 26,
2005
- This issue's focus on avian flu highlights
progress and incoherence in the world's response
to a potential human pandemic. But the threat is
enormous, and some priorities are clear enough.
Millions of people killed in highly developed
countries within months, and tens of millions
worldwide. The global economy in tatters. A
Hollywood fantasy? Noit's now a plausible
scenario.
48Effect and Survival
- The effect of an influenza pandemic on individual
communities will be relatively severe and
prolonged when compared to other natural
disasters, as it is expected that outbreaks will
reoccur in waves. - Life or death (survival) for many will be
determined by how well they and their communities
are prepared.
49What Can Happen
- TRANSPORTATION
- Planes dont fly
- Trains are halted
- Buses dont run
- Travel curtailed
- Gasoline supplies dwindle
- Mobility crisis
- Travelers stranded
- COMMERCE
- Services unavailable
- Food scarce
- Medicines rationed
- Household goods gone
- Supplies in general
- are in short supply
- Inventories shrink
- Banks are closed
50What Can Happen
- CIVIL
- Safety
- Law enforcement
- Civil compromise
- Desperation
- Criminal element
- Utilities
- Water, etc.
- Communication
- PEOPLE
- Social distancing
- 40 could be ill
- Personal resources
- Failure to cope
- The sick, dying dead
- Grief
- The vulnerable
- Being alone concerns
51What Can Happen
- HEALTH CARE
- Medical facilities will be overwhelmed
- Vaccines antivirals in short supply and
unevenly available - Nursing supplies ??
- Rx Medicines Need to stock up
- 2o infections Rx
- EMPLOYMENT
- Offices closed
- Transit problems
- Work from home
- Loss of jobs/wages
- Business failures
- Urge prior planning where it is lacking
- Inability to make payments
52Hunkering down...
- Ill just camp down, probably in the
secretariat, and stay there for 6 to 10 weeks . .
. and my family will have to hunker down where
they are (Switzerland). - (David Navarro, UN. NYT 3/28/06)
53Dr. Anthony Fauci - 4/11/06
- The government still must prepare for the
worst - ''it would be unconscionable not to''
Dr. Fauci added. He recommended families stock up
on supplies, including canned food and water, as
they would anyway for a hurricane or winter
storm. People who require regular medication
for diabetes or other chronic illnesses should
have an extra . . . supply, like they would for a
vacation. (NYT 4/12/06)
54Support in Place
- RESOURCES
- Water
- Food necessities
- Personal hygiene
- Cleaning items
- Sanitation
- Fuel, lighting
- Cash
- Etc.
- FUNCTION
- Guidelines, manuals, etc.
- Computer (Work from home)
- Cell phone
- Bicycles, motor bikes
- Equipment and tools
- Reading materials
- Entertainment items
- Radio, batteries, etc.
55U.S. State Department DVDBeing Prepared for
Pandemic Influenza
- In June, 2006, the U.S. State Department
produced a DVD entitled Being Prepared for
Pandemic Influenza. This is potentially a most
helpful study and resource guide, particularly
for individuals in distant locations. It is a
video presentation of key preparation musts.
56When Influenza Takes Flight
- The governments concerned and the
international community (and individuals) need to
act now to find solutions to the challenges posed
by these outbreaks. The threat of an influenza
pandemic transcends the capacities of any
individual nation or region. For the tsunami, the
world had no warning. For avian influenza, the
warning is there. - (Troedsson
Rychener. NYT. 2/5/05)
57What Do We Need to DoNOW
- Preparing for a potential pandemic is
tremendously challenging, given the potential
scope and the large number of unknowns, said NIH
Director Elias A. Zerhouni, M.D. -
- (http//www.nigms.nih.gov/News/Re
sults/FluModel040306)
58What Do We Need to DoNOW
- Our challenge as Missionary Health Services is
also tremendously challenging, given the
potential scope and the large number of unknowns
for thousands of missionaries in many distant,
diverse and often underdeveloped locations.
59Personal and Public Health
- Our responsibilities are defined as relating to
personal, physical, dental, mental, safety,
nutritional and public health matters. - MHS advises in security matters when that advice
is sought, but ultimate circumstance security
decisions are in the hands of Priesthood
leadership and Church Security.
60Personal Health of Missionaries
- A Caveat
- The Church has accepted legal responsibility and
liability for missionaries, we are told . . . - Parents and grandparents assume, and rightly
so, that all necessary precautions, oversight
and appropriate preparations will be
implemented and in place.
61Personal and Public Health
- We need to provide general guidelines about
health maintenance, preparations for possible
supporting in-place and treatment of disease in
those stranded by potential precipitous border
closures, quarantines, and transportation
absence. - If a pandemic occurs, civil chaos will be
variable, and health systems will be overwhelmed.
Food will be lacking. - Personal safety reality will be variable.
62Decision Makers Up-to-Speed
- Because timing will likely be critical
- We need the mechanism to keep key decision
makers in SLC and area offices up-to-speed and
ready to act. - To be appropriately ready they need to
understand the workings of avian flu. - We need the guidance of the Spirit and the
unanimity stated in DC 10727. - We need prophetic inspiration.
63MissionaryMedical.org
- More and more this Web site has become a key
informational resource. - Our compliments to our colleagues.
- It now needs a sophisticated, user- friendly
up-to-date section on Pandemic Influenza
Understanding and Planning for use by AMAs and
mission presidents, their spouses, and other
key mission personnel. -
64MissionaryMedical.org
- We need Fact Sheets.
- We need circumstance FAQs.
- We need key URLs for emergency.
- We need list of supplies to be on hand in
mission offices. - We need a list of tools that may be needed in
the field.
65MissionaryMedical.org
- AMAs and MPs need to be brought up to speed
and kept there, and their understanding needs to
be continually assessed and validated. -
- Preferably the Web site should be interactive,
in order to respond to unique circumstances and
individual questions.
66MissionaryMedical.org
- An effort, conducted with public relations
help, needs to be mounted to convince and train
our remote colleagues to use this Web site. - Its value as a message center needs to be
explored, the kinks worked out and its use and
utility continually enhanced.
67MissionaryMedical.org
- A section in this Web site, and also printed
copies, needs to be prepared outlining the care
of a seriously ill flu victim unable to access
professional help due to health system
overload. - Lists of supplies, medications, etc., for the
care of ill missionaries, need to be carefully
assembled and shipped with the help of the PBO
to Area or mission offices.
68MissionaryMedical.org
- Satellite service connectivity needs to be
explored as an assured linkage service for
computers and phones in the event of an
emergency / pandemic. - In the event of a pandemic, with communication
failures and infrastructure challenges, we need
to be able to connect, for many reasons.
69Missionary Health
- We need to obviate and preclude a panic
mentality, but at the same time we and they need
to realize we are talking about missionary lives
and suffering. - Life or death (survival) for many will be
determined by how well they and their missions
and their geographic communities are prepared and
respond.
70We Need to Practice / Drill
- In order to ensure the highest likelihood of
success for whatever is to happen, plans for
evacuation, stay in place, or other responses
need to be carefully outlined, formatted,
distributed, and run throughs or practice
drills need to be carefully carried out and
reviewed / assessed. Adjustments need to be made
where advisable. AMAs should be involved. We
need a tight ship ! ! ! !
71We need Mission Contingency Plans Specific for a
Pandemic
- Geography and mission physical facilities will
play a role in what a mission should do. - If the ultimate reality is a stay in place
result, some prior planning is imperative in
light of potential food and supply shortages. - If we will look to members, dont we need to help
them prepare ???
72District Conference Instruction Specific for a
Pandemic
- We need district conference and mission-specific
presentations for a variety of geographic
locations. - These should also be available on our Web site,
with appropriate updates. - Missionaries need to understand the seriousness,
and the need for optimal compliance.
73Missionaries Need to be Ready to Act
- To move in a very rapid fashion to a defined
assembly location. - To already know what can be taken and what is
left behind. - To understand critical timing factors.
- To have ready to go the key carry items.
- To have a cash reserve.
- Recommended food / survival items.
- Social distancing.
74U.S. Embassy Relations
- Maintain consistent and close contact with the
U.S. embassy or consulate and the embassies of
other non-US missionaries. Know the embassy URL. - Get to know the personnel. Dont send a
different person each time. Establish regular
contacts using savvy persons. - Make certain the various embassies know of their
citizens and their locations. - Assess embassies capacity for help.
75U.S. Embassy Relations
- Have someone in each mission / area obtain
information about what each embassy / consulate
is planning with respect to their own employees
and families in the event of a pandemic. - Obtain copies of the DOS Avian Flu Fact sheet and
FAQs. - Learn about the warden system.
76US Embassy Warden System
- A U.S. Embassys primary means of
communication with U.S. citizens during an
emergency is the warden system. The warden system
is used to communicate both emergency and
non-emergency information of interest to known
U.S. citizens. The embassy can also distribute
this information directly via e-mail or fax to
any U.S. citizen who asks to be included in the
warden notification network.
77Consular Response to A.I. Scenarios
78Embassy Reality in a Pandemic
- Likely limit Phase 6 air evacuations to
official Americans. - A drawdown or stay in place response would
limit overall consular services. - In the event of deaths, Embassy will work with
NOK on disposition of remains, in accordance
with local regulations and feasible options.
79What Should We Be Doing?
- Knowledgeable awareness
- Up-to-date information and instruction
- Appropriate preparedness
- Validate understanding
- Agreed-upon compliance readiness
- Savvy linkages and connectivity
- Optimal communication
- Create the spiritual environment to go with
prayerful seeking for inspiration