Solar Energy: Silicon Secrets

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Solar Energy Silicon Secrets

• James Dunn
• Center for Technology Commercialization
• Conf. on Future Energy
• Washington, DC
• Sept. 2006

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PV Industry - ready to Take-off?

• Many large players entering Market like Honda,
  Mitsubishi, and Si Valley cos
• Technology Advances
• Renewable Energy Green credits
• Utilities need Green Power
• DOE and DOD funding
• Zero Energy Homes

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Silicon Energy Gold

• Solar power less than 1 of world's
  electricity - Growing over 40 annually, 15
  billion globally, says Rhone Resch, Pres. of the
  Solar Energy Industry Assoc.
• "The solar industry is the next great high-tech
  industry," Resch said. "Our estimate is that
  within 10 years solar could be the lowest cost
  option for US electricity"

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World PV Installations
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PV Market Growth
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US losing market share

• US has LOST lead in solar power development.
• In 1997, U.S. solar power mfg captured 100 of
  the domestic market
• in 2003, we captured only 73.
• In 1997, U.S. mfgr.s captured over 40 of the
  world market
• in 2003, they captured only 14.
• We need to regain our Leadership!

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Is there enough Silicon materials?

• 94 of PV Market uses Silicon
• Typically use waste si from Semiconductor
  industry _at_ 30-40/kg
• Demand outpacing supply by 2-3X
• Spot market prices up to 175/kg!
• New PV grade Silicon emerging
• New nonSi technologies methods
• New Thin Film and flexible PV designs

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Serious Silicon Shortages

• World Si production about 35,000 Tons/yr.
• PV Currently using up to 50 of Semiconductor
  grade materials ()
• Need 50-85,000 Tons Si to meet growth
• Si Represents 30-40 of total Panel cost
• Need to expand Si mfg. and reduce cost
• Typical (Siemens) plant costs 350-500M

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PV Types and Efficiencies
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Basic PV operation
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Spectral Response
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PhotoVoltaic Market Explosion
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System Prices and cost targets
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Shipments and Job forecast
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PV Efficiency Improving
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Major players Where is the US?

• Sharp
• Kyosera
• BP Solar
• Shell Solar
• Schott

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Electric power Generation costs

• Type Cost (c/kWh)
• Combined cycle gas turbine 3-5
• Wind Power 4-7
• Biomass gasification 7-9
• Remote diesel generation 20-40 Solar PV
  central station 20-30 Solar PV
  distributed 20-50
• 2020 Target PV Cost 5-10

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Top 20 players in 2006

• Applied Materials (US) Evergreen Solar (US)
  First Solar (US) GT Solar (US) Hemlock (US)
  SunPower (US)
• US Cos to Watch
• Dow Corning
• Solar Sciences
• NanoSolar
• Energy Conversion Devices
• Daystar
• Spire Equip, Supplier

• BP Solar (UK) Carmanah (Canada) Conergy
  (Germany) Ersol (Germany) Kyocera (Japan)
  M.Setek (Japan) Motech (Taiwan) Q-Cells
  (Germany) REC (Norway) Sanyo (Japan) Sharp
  (Japan) SolarWorld (Germany)
• Suntech (China) Tokuyama (Japan)

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Market Forecast Photon Consulting
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Large 100-500 kW Installations
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Solar PV Trends

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Tracking Collectors
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New PV Roofing Tiles
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New PV Designs

• Concentrating Solar Systems

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Improved PV Modules

• Larger sizes and features
• Easy to Install
• Longer life
• Higher efficiency up to 22
• Higher Cost per Watt 2005 !

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Solar Deals ?

• Evergreen EC120 Solar Panel120 Watts, 12 Volts
  DC - Made in USA
• Only 4.29 per Watt !
• Sale ends at 11AM ET, Wednesday, 9/20/2006
• 518.00   Save 337.00

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NREL Solar Hydrogen Home Vision
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PV Silicon supply solutions

• Several pathways
• New PV grade Materials like Dow PV1101
• New low cost Processes and Solar PV plants
• Better yields Thinner wafers
• Thin Films and NanoSolar materials
• Non Si Technologies CIGS, TiO2, etc.
• RD in higher efficiencies - 53M Univ. DE.

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New Solar Silicon materials Dow Corning's
PV1101

• Coarser grade 5-9s purity
• Need to blend with Semi grade Polysilicon
• Cost savings limited (10 max)
• Production limited
• Requires blending
• Market limited window

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PV / Fuel Cell Hybrid Power Plants
Photovoltaic arrays
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World Trade Center complex goes LEED

• Future plans may
• Include solar

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Can the US Regain leadership?
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Rapid Expansion Forecast

• Solar production increase six-fold by 2010 10
  GW BY 2010. The bulk of this growth will be in
  crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells/modules.
  Production of high purity Si feedstock rising
  from 32,000 tons in 2005 to over 85,000 tons in
  2010, At the same time, increasing cell
  efficiencies and decreasing waste will enable
  silicon usage per watt to improve by 40, from
  11.5 g/W in 2005 to 7 g/W in 2010.Total c-Si
  cell/module production should exceed 8 GW by
  2010. stronge growth of non-traditional
  technologies (CdTe, a-Si, CIS, µc-Si,
  concentrators)
• We expect nontraditional production to expand
  from 0.15 GW (9 market share) in 2005 to 2 GW
  (20 market share) in 2010.

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Zero Energy Solar Homes
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PV competes with Small Wind Turbines

• New Propeller-Free Spiral Designs

• New Integrated Inverters and controls

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New World Global Warming Funds

• Richard Branson pledged 3 billion to battle
  global warming, 9-22-06
• Clinton announced launch of a 1B renewable
  energy investment fund 9-23
• Clintons Green Fund to focus on reducing
  pollution and our dependence on fossil fuels.
  The Earth is warming at an alarming rate, we
  are running out of fossil fuels, and it is time
  for us to take action to correct these problems,
  Clinton said.
• This is also a tremendous opportunity and
  there are countless good new jobs to be created
  in green energy field.

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The Race Heats up

• Billions being spent
• Many large players
• Unlimited Market growth
• Improved performance
• Closing in on Electric costs
• Ideal for emerging countries

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Future Vehicle Technology

• COFE - Wash. DC
• James Dunn
• Center for Technology Commercialization
• Sept. 2006

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Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020

• Many configurations, options drive trains
• Lower Drag high efficiency, streamlined bodies
• Advanced Spaceframes Alum. more magnesium
• Light weight Composite bodies and components
• New Airless tires and compliant wheels
• New Engines like Free Piston Engine-Generators
• Many fuels Ethanol, CNG, BioDiesel, Syngas ?
• More Electric drives and Wheel Motors
• Novel Energy storage systems
• Adv. Sensors/controls Rear view cameras
  auto-parking
• Auto-Pilots - Lane tracking auto. navigation

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Vehicle Trends
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Future drivetrain options

• Gas, Diesel, or H2 Hybrid vehicles
• Plug-In Hybrids novel energy storage
• Pure EVs, some with series hybrid ICE
• Hydraulic Hybrids I.E. EPA
• Compressed Air drive systems
• New Magnetic motor drives and Wheel Motors
• New IC Engines Scuderi Split Cycle Engine,
• Rand Cam engine, DOD engines, Sterlings,
• and Free Piston Engines/Generators
• Multi-fuelled CNG, Ethanol, Gas, Biofuels, H2

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Free Piston Engines

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Basic Free Piston Engine Specs

• 35 KW design
• Simple - 1 Moving part
• Hydrogen Combustion No Emissions
• 50 Thermal Efficiency
• Low Cost
• Long Life

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Future Vehicle Technology

• Technology Time Mpg
• Hybrid Gas-electric 2000-2015 50-85
• Hybrid diesel-electric 2007-2015 75-100
• Hydrogen ICE 2008-2030 40-75
• Alt. Fuel Hybrids 2010-2020 60-100
• Plug-in Hybrids/EVs 2010-2025 100-175
• H2 ICE Hybrids 2015-2030 100-150
• Hybrid MicroTurbine 2018-2030 100-175
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell 2020-2035 75-120

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Alternative Fuels

• Ethanol, Methanol, CNG
• BioDiesel SynDiesel
• (Waste) Vegetable oils
• BioMass derived fuels, SynFuels
• H2, Urea, Ammonia
• Radioactive Pellets/Isotopes
• Other ?

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Ford E-450 Van with Triton V-10 Hydrogen ICE

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Hybrid Trucks buses
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New Tires and Wheels

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Yes No Air used !

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Improved driving less risk

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May be on market by 2008

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New Hybrid Designs

• Use of U-caps and low cost LiIon batts

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250 MPG ??
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Battery EVs

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Coming in 2012 ??

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New Fuel Cell cars

• GM Sequel Equinox 100 units to be field
  tested

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BMW Dual H2/Gas 750
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What is it?
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Home Fuel Cell Vehicle Refueling Station
DC Power from PV array
DC Power from PV array
DC Power from PV array
DC Power from PV array
DC Power from PV array
Borohydride regenerator
Borohydride regenerator
Borohydride regenerator
Borohydride fuel tank
Borohydride fuel tank
Borohydride fuel tank