Population Environment

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Population - Environment Relationships Ideas and
Observations
UCAR August 1, 2001
Gayl D. Ness University of Michigan Department of
Sociology email gaylness_at_umich.edu
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Contents IDEAS Four Basic Principles. 1. No
direct relationship 2. We can find examples of
all forms 3. Quality of Life is the most
important outcome 4. Actions and outcomes are
location-specific OBSERVATIONS Examples of
varying P-E relations in three cities. Fisalabad,
Pakistan poor and badly governed Khon Kaen,
Thailand Better, but still with
problems Kobe, Japan High life quality.
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The first principle is 1. There is no direct
relationship between population and environment
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2. We can find real life examples of all
population-environment relationships
Environmental change
Enhancement
Degradation
Most Common Perception
Singapore
Hinalayan deforestation
Curitaba, Brazil
Amazon forests
African forests, savannah, etc
Population Change
Decline
Growth
Japanese and European
Thai Gibbon sancturay
Alpine rural exodus reduces
biodiveristy
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3. For our analyses we use a metabolic model
of the urban system, which proposes that the
Quality of Life is the most important outcome of
all P-E relationships
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4. All population environment relationships are
location-specific. All results are determined by
some form of local human technology and some
form of local human social organization. This
means especially that people and their
governments are basically responsible for the
outcome of any specific population environment
relationship Let me illustrate this principle
with three very different examples of Asian
urban population environment dynamics
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In 1998-9 we did a study of population
environment relationships in five Asian cities
resulting in this book
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This map show the location of the five cities.
What follows will deal with only three.
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Faisalabad Pakistan is a great arid plain lying
between India and Afghanistan. Though rainfall is
a mere 2-3 inches per year, the country is well
watered by the great Indus river system that
brings huge amounts of waters from the high
Himalayas through the plain, to debouche into the
Arabian sea near Karachi. Under British colonial
and independent Pakistani governments, canals and
dams have brought these waters to vast expanses
of land, making Pakistan one of the worlds most
irrigated countries. The waters produce grains,
fruits and cottons, bringing considerable wealth
to the country. Is it sustainable??
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Faisalabad is a new textile town, created 100
years ago by a canal bringing Chenab River
waters to a previously arid wetland.
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We modeled Faisalabads future growth.
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Added to the potential for agricultural
collapse is the tragedy of weak government, rapid
population growth and a young population The
Pakistani government is currently unable to
provide good educational and health services to
its population. People have given up on
government private services of all kinds are
growing rapidly. More seriously. There are
currently some 8 million young males (ages 15-19)
in Pakistan. Their numbers will certainly grow
to about 12 million over the next 20 years.
With no schools or jobs for most, where will they
go? What will they do? The potential for
instability within Pakistan, between Pakistan and
India (two nuclear powers), and in the rest of
South Asia is substantial.
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Khon Kaen, Thailand
Khon Kaen lies in the center of Thailands
Northeast region. It rests on a rolling plateau,
served by three rivers that drain into the mighty
Mekong River. It is know as the Heart of the
Northeast.
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A very successful family planning program brought
fertility from natural to controlled levels from
1965-85 greatly reducing all population
pressures on the country and the city.
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Young men are all in schools, sports and scouts,
with reasonable chances for jobs. And their
numbers are declining! There were 3.1 million in
1985 and 2.8 million in 2000.
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Pusan is South Koreas major seaport
Kobe is the same for Japan
Both are modern, well developed cities that have
emerged like a phoenix from recent near total
destruction. They both provide a high quality of
life for their people, but have some problems
lurking in the future. What population-environment
problems do they have? Here we consider only
Kobe
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Kobe is Japans major seaport. It lies on the
north edge of Osaka Bay. The Japanese current
runs outside the bay from SW to NE, pulling
pollutants out of the bay into the sea. An
effective government at national and city levels
helped turn environmental advantages into high
quality of life for Kobes citizens.
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Kobe is also blessed with favorable air currents
that remove pollution. But it is hemmed in by
geography. It lies on a narrow shelf 4 km X 20
km, between the deep bay and rugged Rokko
Mountains.
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Kobe solved its space problem with a dramatic
engineering feat. It cut off the tops of some
mountains, built new towns there, and dumped the
fill into the sea to create two artificial
islands ringed by container ports, and containing
apartments and many amenities.
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A topographic drawing showing Kobe and its
islands
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A larger view of Rokko Mountains, Kobe and Port
Island
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Islands are linked to the central city by fully
computerized electric trains. The city has built
a highly efficient mass transit electric train
system, which moves people efficiently and
cleanly.
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Population growth has now slowed, but the chart
shows dramatic dips during World War II, and in
the 1995 earthquake.
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But for all its progress, Kobe has at least
two major P-E problems. One concerns vehicles,
air quality and health, as seen in..
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(No Transcript)
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Stella Model of Kobes Air Quality
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Projected vehicle growth with current emissions
technology will likely increase air pollution,
causing an estimated 10,000 more deaths between
1995 and 2020.
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The Second Problem concerns AGING. This is a
major problem for all low fertility
countries. Low fertility implies Increases in
the aged, Reductions in the young, Ultimate
reduction of the overall population, and A demand
for immigration or changes in the internal labor
force conditions.
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More serious problems lie ahead in the changing
age structure, the aging of the population.
Japan, like much of Europe, faces a population
bust, for which easy solutions are not now in
sight.
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Lessons There is no direct relationship between
population and environment. We have seen examples
of many different relationships. Local conditions
pose specific challenges all relationships are
location-specific. Reducing fertility and
population growth provide major benefits to both
people and the environment. The major outcome of
any population-environment relationship is the
quality of life for both current and future
populations. A major determinant of quality of
life is human social-political-economic-cultural
institutions and conditions. We Are
Responsible!