SEER: The Current State presented to NASA CAS 2005

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SEER The Current Statepresented to NASA CAS
2005
presented byBob Hunt, V.P. Services
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Galorath Mission Statement

• Help engineers, managers and cost analysts plan
  and control critical projects with advanced
  modeling tools and services
• This is accomplished by providing
• 1. SEER software for management planning
  control and for cost analysis
• 2. User training in tool implementation and
  methodology to enhance decision making and
  process refinement
• 3. Product tailoring to meet customer specific
  requirements
• 4. Management planning, control and cost services
  to assist in the implementation of the tools and
  methodologies
• SEER Empowering project estimation, planning
  control

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SEER Products Provide Complete Total Cost of
Ownership Solutions

• SEER-H with Total System Vision
• Estimate and Analyze the Development, Production,
  Operations Support and System Level Costs
• Integrating your SEER-SEM (software) and SEER-DFM
  (detail production) estimates into a single
  project rollup with complete associativity
• The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control
  Suite
• Estimate and Analyze the Development and
  Maintenance of Software Projects with respect to
  Cost, Schedule, Effort, Risk and Reliability
• SEER-DFM (Design for Manufacturability)
• Estimate and Analyze Detail Production Costs
  Part Labor Costs, Tooling Costs, Material Costs

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SEER Products

• SEER Lifecycle Cost Evaluation
• SEER-H with Total System Vision
• SEER-Spyglass
• SEER-IC
• The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control
  Suite
• SEER-SEM (Software Estimation Model)
• SEER-AccuScope
• SEER-SEM Client for MS Project
• SEER-PPMC (Parametric Project Monitoring and
  Control)
• SEER-ScatterPlot
• SEER-ProjectMiner
• SEER-DFM (Design for Manufacturability)
• Machining
• Mold/Cast/Forge
• Finishing
• Electrical Assembly
• Printed Circuit Board Assembly
• Mechanical Assembly
• Fabrication

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What Does SEER-H Estimate?

• System Level Cost Estimation
• System program management
• System engineering and integration
• System test operations
• System integration, assembly and test
• System support equipment
• Development Estimation
• Design
• Prototypes
• Tooling
• Production Estimation
• Direct Labor--fabrication, integration, assembly
• Indirect Labor-
• production support, overhead, Management, etc.
• Material--raw materials, purchased components

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System Level Costs

• System Level Cost analysis can be added to your
  SEER-H estimate by setting parameters at the
  project or rollup level.
• When applied, it takes into account all child
  work elements (including software) in every
  branch that leads to the rollup.
• It considers these work elements to be
  collectively designed to fulfill a common,
  non-trivial purpose, preparation for which
  requires incurring costs above and beyond their
  standalone costs and the costs of creating the
  appropriate interfaces for the individual
  elements.
• System Level Costs use the labor and material
  costs of the subsystems along with system level
  complexity factors to compute system level costs.
• System level costs are reported for both
  recurring and non-recurring activities.

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System Level Cost - Outputs

• SLC An initiative to incorporate system level
  costs into SEER-H
• Purpose to allow estimators to include both
  subsystem and system level costs in a single
  estimate
• Initial data research effort funded by NASA IPAO
• Main source of data NAFCOM 2002 database
• Other sources Industry survey, in-house data and
  expert opinion
• Up to five distinct system level cost increments
  can be estimated (or omitted if deemed
  inappropriate) in development
• System program management (SPM)
• System engineering and integration (SEI)
• System test operations (STO)
• System integration, assembly and test (IAT)
• System support equipment (SSE)
• Up to three distinct system level cost increments
  can be estimated (or omitted if deemed
  inappropriate) in production SPM SEI IAT

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Spyglass Plug-in Overview

• A new plug-in for SEER-H
• Spyglass Work Elements
• Optical Telescope Assembly
• Focal Plane Array
• Mechanisms
• Cooling
• Calibrator
• Integration and Test
• Mix and match Spyglass elements with standard
  SEER-H elements for the best possible cost model
• Software Elements may be linked in from SEER-SEM

Mix and match work element types to build an
estimation breakdown structure
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Spyglass Plug-in Overview

• Estimate based upon Key Technical and Performance
  Parameters (KTPPs).
• Each Spyglass element has an associated list of
  Technologies.
• The Technology selection will determine the list
  of KTPPs for a given element and a given
  technology.

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What is SEER-DFM?

• Bottoms Up Parametric Cost Model
• Based on Standards
• Parametric Forecasting
• Estimates At the Process Level
• Estimates Average Unit and Total Production costs
• Labor
• Material
• Tooling
• Bases Estimates on Process Parameters
• Part Size, Process Types and Steps, Lot Size,
  Etc.
• Provides Design Team with the ability to make
  smart decisions from the Back of the Napkin to
  the CAD Program Phases,
• Which Reduces Downstream Manufacturing Costs
• Provides the Design Team with Real Time Cost
  Feedback
• Provides a Systematic Repeatable Estimating
  Process
• Reports Production Cost estimates in a variety of
  formats

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What Does SEER-DFM Estimate?

• Project Part Roll Up Levels
• Site or Work Centers
• Total Average Project and Unit Production Costs
  for
• Part Labor Costs
• Tooling Costs
• Material Costs
• The Manufacturing Process Level
• Key Process drivers, Part Raw Finished Weights,
  Key Process Variables and their Impacts on total
  Cost
• Set Up Cost
• Run Cost
• Rework Cost
• Inspection Cost
• Material Cost
• Tooling Cost
• Answers the Design Teams Question
• Which Way do we Go

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Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes
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Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes (cont.)
Finishing Air Gun Spray Thermal
Spray Electrostatic Vacuum Metalize Dip Chromat
e/Phosphate Electrocoat Electroplate Brush PC
Board Assembly Board Fabrication PCB
Assembly/Solder Electrical Assembly Cable Harn
ess
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What Does SEER-SEM Do?

• SEER-SEM uses a combination of
• Sizing metrics and techniques (SLOC, Function
  Points and others),
• Parametric algorithms
• Knowledge Bases (industry data),
• Simulation-based probability analysis techniques,
  and
• User supplied data
• to estimate and analyze the development and
  maintenance of software projects
• with respect to
• Cost
• Schedule
• Effort
• Risk (probability of success)
• Reliability (Defects)

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SEER Process Focus (CMMI)

• Project Planning
• Establish Estimates
• Develop a Project Plan
• Obtain Commitment to the Plan
• Project Monitoring and Control
• Monitor Project Against Plan
• Manage Corrective Action to Closure
• Measurement and Analysis
• Align Measurement and Analysis Activities
• Provide Measurement Results

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SEER Methods

• Project Planning
• History-Based Sizing
• Direct Measure Sizing
• Parametric Estimation
• Project Monitoring and Control
• 4-D Performance Measurement
• At-a-Glance Status Indication
• Performance-based Prediction
• Measurement and Analysis
• Estimation Accuracy Assessment and Improvement
• Calibration
• Knowledge Base Management
• Benchmarking

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SEER Tools

• Project Planning
• SEER-AccuScope
• SEER-SEM
• Project Miner (SEER-SEM option)
• SEER-H
• SEER-IC
• SEER-DFM
• SEER-SEM Client for Microsoft Project (SEER-SEM
  option)
• Project Monitoring and Control
• Parametric Project Monitoring and Control
  (SEER-SEM option)
• Measurement and Analysis
• SEER-RDB
• SEER-ScatterPlot (SEER-SEM option)
• Databases
• SEER-DB
• SEER-RDB

SEER-SEM
PPMC
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A Common Question

• In SEER-SEM, can I enter my actual effort once
  the project is underway and will the tool
  recalibrate my estimate?
• The right answer is NO - its not enough just to
  give actual hours
• Just because you spent 50 of a planned budget
  doesnt mean your are 50 done
• What the project manager needs to know
• How much more money, how many people, for how
  long?
• How can the project be adjusted to meet
  objectives?
• To do this, you need assess the project status in
  terms of progress, not just in terms of
  expenditure

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Software Project ManagementFully Managed Project
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What is PPMC?Features
Parametric Performance Monitoring and Control

• A set of add-on features to SEER-SEM that enable
  project monitoring and control of software
  development projects
• Features include
• Inputs for actual effort and project progress as
  well as for certain project metrics
• Performance Measurement calculations
• Reporting to provide information on project
  status
• PPMC employs 4-D Performance Measurement
• Activity Completion
• Expenditures
• Artifact Completion
• Defect Discovery/Removal

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Why PPMC?Benefits
Parametric Project Monitoring and Control

• Performance Measurement is considered a best
  practice for monitoring and controlling software
  projects
• Performance Measurement can be improved
• More fidelity in determining progress (Earned
  Value)
• Better prediction and re-baselining capability by
  coupling to-date performance with established
  estimation methods
• PPMC adds monitoring and control capabilities to
  SEER-SEM by combining
• Accepted algorithms currently used for cost and
  schedule estimation during the project planning
  process
• Accepted equations currently used for traditional
  Performance Measurement

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Performance MeasurementMeasures and Metrics

• Fundamental Cost of Work Measures
• Baseline Budget Budget at Completion (BAC)
• Planned Budgeted Cost of the Work Scheduled
  (BCWS)
• Earned Budgeted Cost of the Work Performed
  (BCWP)
• Spent Actual Cost of the Work Performed (ACWP)
• Variances (Differences between Cost of Work
  Measures)
• Schedule Variance (SV)
• Cost Variance (CV)
• Budget Variance (BV)
• Time Variance (TV)

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Performance MeasurementMeasures and Metrics

• Performance Indices (Ratios Between Cost of
  Work Measures)
• Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
• Cost Performance Index (CPI)
• Budget Performance Index (BPI)
• Time Performance Index (TPI)
• Composite Performance Index (XPI)
• To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
• Status and Forecasting Metrics
• Estimate at Completion (EAC)
• Estimate to Complete (ETC)

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Tracking a Project

• Once a project is started, the PPMC process may
  begin
• Start with a SEER-SEM Current Estimate
• Upon approval, make the Current Estimate the
  Baseline
• Measure project progress and expenditure
  periodically and/or aperiodically and record data
  Snapshots
• At each Snapshot point in time
• Analyze all of the various Performance
  Measurement metrics and indicators and identify
  potential problems
• Report analysis findings to stakeholders
• Replan (revisit the estimate) as required
• Modify Current Estimate in SEER-SEM until it
  reasonably matches actual progress (BCWP) and
  actual expenditure (ACWP) to date
• Upon approval, save the current Baseline and then
  make the Current Estimate the new Baseline

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The Baseline

• A baseline freezes the current estimate
• The baseline provides the yardstick against which
  the project is tracked and evaluated
• Allows you to do trades with the current estimate
  while maintaining the planning baseline
• A baseline can be updated at any time
• The current estimate may be set back to the
  baseline at any time

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The Snapshot

• Snapshots are a picture of the projects metrics
  at any give point in time
• The snapshot includes two key components
• Work Complete
• Actual Effort
• Work Complete describes the progress in terms of
  milestone completion
• Actual Effort includes hours as well as size and
  defect metrics
• Snapshots are flexible in terms of interval or
  frequency
• Regular snapshots e.g. monthly or quarterly
• As needed e.g. before a key review

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Reporting

• PPMC reports and charts are based on the most
  recent snapshot entered
• Work complete metrics are used to evaluate
  remaining effort and schedule (Estimate To
  Complete)
• Estimate At Complete Actual Effort ETC

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Example Project Metrics Charts at Project Start
(Initial Plan)
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Software
Requirements Review
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Preliminary
Design Review
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Critical
Design Review
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Code Unit
Test Complete
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Component
Integration Complete
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Program Test
Complete
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Example Project Metrics Chartsat Delivery
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PPMC Summary

• Enables powerful evaluation of a projects
  progress
• Utilizes Performance Measurement best practices
• Capitalizes on parametric models ability to
  replan and forecast based on current project
  assumptions
• Flexible doesnt require regular care and
  feeding, you can use it only when you need to
• Provides a significant contribution to the
  project management continuum

SEER-SEM
PPMC
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SEER TRAINING

• SEER-H and SEER-SEM
• Core Training
• 3 Days of presentation, discussion and
  extensive hands-on
• exercises and case studies
• Public Workshop available quarterly (Galorath
  HQ El Segundo, CA)
• Private (on-site)
• Advanced Training
• 2 Days more sophisticated use of the tools,
  integration and
• customization as well as introductions to
  specialized SEER add-ons
• Public Workshop available quarterly (Galorath
  HQ El Segundo, CA)
• Private (on-site)
• SEER-DFM
• 4 to 5 Days of presentation, discussion and
  extensive hands-on
• exercises and case studies
• Private (on-site)

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SEER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

• The mission of our Professional Services branch
  is to ensure our customers success by providing
  world-class capabilities in the application of
  Galorath products to real-world projects.
• QuickStart Assessment (QSA)
• Implementation Services
• JumpStart Program
• Estimating and Proposal Support
• Independent Cost Estimation
• Custom Modeling Solutions
• NASA has prepaid JumpStarts available.

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For More InformationPlease contact us at
Headquarters El Segundo, CA

• 1 [phone] US
• (703-201-0651)
• info_at_galorath.com
• www.galorath.com
• 44 (0) 1252 720 629 UK

International HQ Farnham, UK